plawolf
Lieutenant General
That is just shows you really need to learn a lot more about the EU, how it works and what Brexit is all about.
Firstly, there is the general stereotypical misconception about the EU being unable to agree on water being wet. Like all stereotypes, it contains some true, but also an awful lot of projection.
The EU has a hard time deciding on major policy matters because of conflicting interests of member states, and that will come into play, but that actually works against the UK, which I will get to later.
Indeed, the crowning irony of Brexit is that it was often, if not usually, the British who were the ones to hold things up in the EU. Germany and France are almost always of one mind, whereas it is the UK who is normally the leading voice of opposition. With the UK gone, EU policy decision making will likely get a lot smoother and quicker.
However, much of that will not even come into play, because most of the key decisions that will be made by the EU in the coming weeks and months, which will be instrumental in setting the tone and terms of Brexit, will not be made by the European Parliament or the voters of the remaining member states, but rather, by key bureaucrats, like the head of the European Central Bank, President and the leaders of Germany and France.
If you have been listening to what those people have been saying, you would be foolish to think they are in any mood to help the UK out. Indeed, it sounds like they are already laying the groundwork to throw the UK under the bus, with talk of domino effects (hyping fear in other EU states about the very existence of the EU), insisting the UK cannot be allowed to use the EU financial passport (which will mean UK based banks cannot offer services or make transactions win the rest of the EU, thereby posing a huge existential threat to London's key financial services industry, a cornerstone of the UK economy) and insisting the UK needs to trigger Article 50 as soon as possible.
You also seems to fundamentally not understand what Brexit is about or what it now means for the UK.
The leave campaign has insisted that by leaving, the UK can avoid having to follow all the fundamental rules that govern the EU common market (free movement of people, goods and services) by being able to restrict movement of other EU member states' citizens into the UK, while still being able to sell goods and services to the rest of the EU without any restrictions. Oh, and they also don't want to continue paying the membership fees of being part of the EU.
By what ludicrous reasoning would any of the remaining members of the EU agree to any of that? Give the UK all the benefits of being in the EU while not having to follow key rules or pay membership fees while they have to follow all the rules and now probably pay more, and get less out of the EU now that the UK is going to stop paying their fees? It is in their own national interests to not agree to such a blatantly unfair deal.
This is where Article 50 is significant. As soon as Article 50 is triggered, the count down begans. 2 years later, you are no longer a member of the EU, meaning all existing agreements and deals are null and void. Once Article 50 is triggered, the EU doesn't have to lift a finger, all the have to do is not do any deals with the UK, and after the 2 years are up, the UK will have zero rights and powers to trade, travel or even cooperate with any EU member state unless all other EU member states agree. This would be where the EU's infamously long and hard decision making process comes into play and works against the UK. It would only take one member state to say 'No' to stop any deals with the UK.
I can pretty much guarantee no other national leader is thinking about following the UK out. They are all thinking about what this move means for their countries, and its almost always the conclusion that Brexit has badly hurt their economies and national interests.
There will be those in the EU worrying about a domino effect, which is why it would be in the EU's best interest to make things as hard and painful for the UK as possible
Just what do you think the EU is? An infinite money bag that only pays out and needs no effort and investment to keep going?
The key reason Vote Leave won was because they told bare faced lies about what they can get from leaving the EU. On the morning after the result, right after giving their nauseating victory speeches, key Leavers went on TV and started backtracking on key claims and pledges made to get ill informed voters to vote leave.
The EU is a common good, like a park, road, or damn that everyone has to work together to help maintain, and pay to keep in good order so that all can benefit.
By leaving, the UK is making the burden of those left harder, and also making the common good less good for those left.
Other than the UK, no other EU country is anywhere as EU sceptic, most of them had to fight long and hard to get in the EU, and they will not be pleased by the UK damaging, and maybe even putting the very existence of this exclusive club their have worked so hard to join.
I am almost certain the talk in many, if not most EU capitals right now is how they can reverse this decision or make the UK pay so badly no one else thinks about doing anything like it again.
Except the EU is enormously beneficial to all member states, yes, the UK too! Which is why so many countries are clamouring to join.
At the core of the vote leave argument is the unspoken idea that the UK can get more than its fair share by cherry picking all the benefits of EU membership, without any of the obligations (free movement of people, obeying EU laws and regulations) or costs (EU membership fees and dues).
They might have been able to get a slightly better deal by using the threat of leaving as the hostage. But the fundamental flaw of their 'strategy' is that they shot the hostage before getting the ransom. Now they have absolutely no leverage to even get the same deal as what the UK has now!
The UK cannot put off triggering Article 50 for long. Cameron resigning was him doing the only thing he could to make a tiny bit of amends for this unbelievable wrong he has done the UK by playing with fire and offering the referendum for some cheap political points. He has bought the UK maybe a few months of grace to maybe find a way to undo Brexit.
But as soon as Article 50 is triggered, that's when we are effectively past the point of no return. As soon as that comes into play, everything is on automatic, and will need all EU member states in agreement to undo, which will need a real live miracle I my view.
That is why Germany is saying there is no rush to trigger Article 50.
Right now, the only play with any good endings for anyone is if the UK hold a second referendum and undo Brexit before it begins.
Expect the EU to build a picture of doom and gloom in the weeks and months ahead to try and create enough public pressure in the UK to justify a second referendum.
But don't be mistaken in thinking it would all only be for show and posturing. The EU is also building its contingency plan to royally screw the UK if Brexit cannot be walked back as an example to others so leaving the EU will never be seriously considered by any other member state.
) while shooting their economic golden goose in the head and ushering into power people of highly suspect moral, political and world views.
