Miscellaneous News

plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
FriedRiceNSpice said:
Your calculations of dividing export value by GDP per capita unfortunately does not approximate the number of Chinese that will be impacted. You are not accounting for the cost of inputs, particularly raw materials. Essentially you are assuming that if an export oriented factory closes down, then all of its upstream suppliers will have to close down as well, which does not match with reality.

Let me go back to the factory I brought up earlier in my example. With annual exports to the US of Y600M ($82M), your calculations would imply that 6370 people would be impacted if that factory had to shut down. In reality, the factory employs about 800 employees total. Out of the $82M in export sales, the factory pays for about $47M for inputs. Out of those inputs, 72% are price-inelastic goods that would be sold at that price regardless of whether or not this particular factory purchases them. In fact, 45% of the inputs are actually imported - so in the case of the factory closing down, these goods would simply no longer need to be imported. Of course, these numbers can deviate significantly based on the particular goods produced, but should still suffice to illustrate how your calculation would grossly overestimate the number of Chinese impacted.

Rather than looking at the gross export value, you need to consider the actual value-add contributed by Chinese factories.


For many goods, there are already foreign bidders lined up. There would not be much time needed at all. In many cases US buyers are offering only 2.5-5% higher prices than the next highest (non-US) bidder.
Click to expand...

You are exactly right that it’s a total nonsense to divide total exports (gross revenue) by average wage to calculate number of workers who are dependent on that exports.

The exact number will vary wildly between manufacturers and industry, but labour costs are usually only around 15% of revenue for small scale (low capital investment and margins) manufacturing, and will typically drop the more capital intensive the manufacturing becomes.

However, we should also not underestimate the potential impact because export substitutions can only account for so much.

At the end of the day, America consumes a disproportionately massive amount of the world’s resources. If there is a systemic crash and reset of the world trading order, much of that buying power and consumption will simply disappear, and that net reduction in demand and consumption will have a noticeable negative impact on China as well as the world.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
StraightEdge said:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
View attachment 152295
Click to expand...
Reminds me of a possibly apocryphal anecdote about a knock off shoe factory in Putian, Fujian that wanted to imitate a new variety of Air Jordan that’s highly anticipated by basketball shoe enthusiasts. What they found difficult to replicate was the special “air spring” supposedly used in the heel of the new shoes, and they spent a lot of effort and RnD money engineering their own solution because they didn’t know how Nike does it. It was only after the Air Jordan line launched that they found out the whole thing was a scam and that Nike put some cardboard in the heels for padding.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
AssassinsMace said:
I saw a US YouTube video that where because people were pointing to AVIC stock price rising, it’s all a lie that Chinese hardware defeated Western hardware and it’s all about just inflating the stock price. Well it doesn’t hurt if it’s the truth also. Cope hard.
Click to expand...
The XJP Thought volume 3 they are cramming hard for in ten years is a lie too. What do I know.
 
T

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
nugroho said:
Vietnam has bloody history with both USA and China, USA killed more Vietnamese than China , at least China ever helped Vietnam .
But why VN is pro US than China? Does white superiority complex involve here ?
Click to expand...
China either directly ruled or being overlord of Vietnam for most of Vietnam's history, that is more "humiliating" than killing in morden nationalism.
 
FriedRiceNSpice

FriedRiceNSpice

Captain
taxiya said:
China either directly ruled or being overlord of Vietnam for most of Vietnam's history, that is more "humiliating" than killing in morden nationalism.
Click to expand...

At some point the Vietnamese just needs to let go of past history and just accept the fact that ancient times were brutal: larger empires conquering and subjugating smaller states was just the norm back then. China eventually learned that trading with Vietnam was more profitable than conquering it, and China has not attempted to conquer Vietnam within the last few hundred years and will not attempt to do so in the future.
 
E

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
It is normal for historically powerful countries to have more negative views among their neighbors than distant countries. Most of Europe was like that - constantly at war with each other - until the forceful occupation of various countries and creation of the EU by the Allies post-World War 2. Even if Japan and South Korea were not US aligned, they'd likely be negative towards China. Just look at North Korea as an example of a country that, despite being dependent on China, is still wary of China. The same is true of Russia and India and their neighbors.

FriedRiceNSpice said:
At some point the Vietnamese just needs to let go of past history and just accept the fact that ancient times were brutal: larger empires conquering and subjugating smaller states was just the norm back then. China eventually learned that trading with Vietnam was more profitable than conquering it, and China has not attempted to conquer Vietnam within the last few hundred years and will not attempt to do so in the future.
Click to expand...
If I were Vietnamese, I surely wouldn't be sure of that. The world is no longer moving in a liberal direction; if anything, it is moving in the opposite direction, and empires & conquests may once again become the order of the day.
 
FriedRiceNSpice

FriedRiceNSpice

Captain
Eventine said:
It is normal for historically powerful countries to have more negative views among their neighbors than distant countries. Most of Europe was like that - constantly at war with each other - until the forceful occupation of various countries and creation of the EU by the Allies post-World War 2. Even if Japan and South Korea were not US aligned, they'd likely be negative towards China. Just look at North Korea as an example of a country that, despite being dependent on China, is still wary of China. The same is true of Russia and India and their neighbors.
Click to expand...
Korea should have been the edge case if it weren't for the Japanese devils. South Korea and China at one time were moving very close together (which in turn caused North Korea's view of China to deteriorate). However, as the economic relationship between China and SK transitioned from cooperation to competition, SK's views of China rapidly deteriorated.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top