Fireside Chat With Stephen Kotkin & US House Select Committee on China | Hoover Institution
Participants:
1) Committee Chairman John Moolenaar, US Representative for Michigan's 2nd congressional district Ranking Member
2) Raja Krishnamoorthi, US Representative for Illinois's 8th congressional district.
3) Professor Kotkin, Kleinheinz Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
Arguments/Statements by Kotkin and the respective translation:
Kotkin:
“We’re in a second Cold War, but it’s better than a hot war. We must compete with China while preserving our way of life.”
Translation:
We want unchallenged global dominance, but we can’t afford another Vietnam or Iraq. So we’ll use economic, technological, and ideological warfare to contain China and Russia without admitting we’re the aggressors.
Kotkin:
“China’s Leninist system is inherently repressive. It fears political reform and liberalization, which would be suicidal for the regime.”
Translation:
Don’t expect China to adopt Western liberal democracy. They remember what happened to Gorbachev and the USSR — and they’re not stupid enough to fall for our color revolution playbook.
Kotkin:
“China wants to restore its perceived rightful place in the world.”
Translation:
China dares to believe it should not be subordinate to the U.S.-led world order. This is unacceptable. Their ambitions threaten our monopoly on defining what’s “normal” globally.
Kotkin:
“We must share the world with China — but on our terms. The current status quo is a win for us.”
Translation:
China can exist, but only if it obeys the U.S.-dominated global architecture: dollar hegemony, NATO’s umbrella, Western tech rules, U.S.-controlled internet, and subservience in trade policy. If they try to challenge this, we bring the hammer.
Kotkin:
“Appeasement doesn’t work. Transformation through engagement (Pygmalion) doesn’t work. Cold War is our best option.”
Translation:
Forget trade peace and cooperation. We’re doubling down on containment, information warfare, sanctions, asset seizures, blockades, and militarized alliance-building — just like with the USSR. We want permanent tension without accountability.
Kotkin:
“The U.S. must remain who we are — a free and open society — and not become like them.”
Translation:
We’ll still censor dissenting voices, blacklist anti-war figures, imprison whistleblowers, and expand surveillance — but we’ll pretend we’re defending freedom while doing it.
Kotkin:
“Xi Jinping might roll the iron dice and invade Taiwan. We must raise the risk for him.”
Translation:
We want to make sure any move China makes toward Taiwan results in massive political and military cost — to deter reunification or integration by any means, even peaceful ones.
Kotkin:
“Taiwan is democratic, vibrant, and wants no part of the Communist regime.”
Translation:
Taiwan is our unsinkable aircraft carrier off China's coast. We’re arming it, funding it, and using it to provoke China — while pretending we’re just innocent protectors of freedom.
Kotkin:
“The status quo is our win. Don’t give China a pretext to act.”
Translation:
We want to keep Taiwan semi-detached — not independent, not fully reintegrated — so we can use it to needle China without provoking all-out war (yet). It’s a frozen conflict we manage for strategic leverage.
Kotkin:
“Winning means investing in ourselves, education, allies, and playing to our strengths.”
Translation:
Let’s retool our domestic economy just enough to maintain global primacy — but only if it supports our strategic goal of locking China and Russia out of global influence.
TL;DR Summary of Kotkin's points on China in the video:
A) China is a Leninist threat: He asserts that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) cannot reform politically without collapsing—therefore, engagement with it will always fail.
B) The U.S. must remain the global hegemon: He believes the U.S. must preserve the status quo—meaning, its global preeminence and ideological model—against China’s ambitions.
C) The New Cold War is good: Kotkin frames the new U.S.-China rivalry as Cold War 2.0—and even calls Cold War an “achievement.” He warns against appeasement and believes strategic competition is the way to go.
D) Sacrifice is required: He says Americans must accept economic sacrifices (like higher prices or fewer apps) to preserve their system and “way of life.”
E) Taiwan is a red line: He insists that any Chinese move on Taiwan must be deterred not just militarily, but politically—by convincing China that its regime would fall if it acts.
F) We must never become like them: Kotkin draws heavily on Cold War-era George Kennan, warning that if America uses authoritarian tools to compete with authoritarian powers, it will lose by becoming what it opposes.
Disclaimer/Personal Opinion:
1) The Hoover Institution is a far-right/neofascist/neo-imperialist institution.
2) In his circles, Kotkin is a notorious neo-imperialist/American quasi neo-fascist ideologue. He repeats the same neocon/neolib tropes as the other far-right extremists/neofascist lunatics (e.g. Pompeo, McFaul, Pillsbury, Pottinger, Ward, Agent Chang, etc.).
