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00CuriousObserver

Junior Member
Registered Member
Any action he makes has to be viewed through the lens of him personally wanting more US chip sanctions on Chinese companies.
It's was his entire MO before he started SemiAnalysis, since he thinks sanction evasion is the only reason China is showing any progress on chips or AI.

I'm not seeing how this counters anything I wrote.

Do you have a source on the "sanction evasion is the only reason"? And other than this, is he not correct in advocating for such from his perspective?
 

TPenglake

Junior Member
Registered Member
Now that the dust has settled somewhat, we can say in the grand scheme of things that Deepseek hurts as much as it does, because it is China's first major victory over America in the tech war.

To preface, the tech war has been going on for some 6 odd years now, with the opening salvo fired at ZTE, which caught the Chinese tech sector completely flatfooted. Since that episode though, most of the background back and forth between US and China has resulted in little changes, with most of the major battles largely resulting draws. Take Huawei, yes they maintained a significant global 5g presence and their phone business came roaring back in China. But I would still call it a draw, until Huawei is able to actually export its phones again. TikTok too is a draw, since the ban has only been delayed and the app still can't be downloaded in the US, although the XHS surge was definately an unforseen consequence of that battle.

Deepseek though is catching the Americans completely flatfooted the sameway the ZTE ban caught China flatfooted. The American reactions have been covered to death for the past two days, so I won't go futher. Instead, more indicative of how large this victory is, is how third parties have taken the news. Across the board in Europe, there is a morbid acceptance that their continent has zero relevance to the world now, outside of handbags and cathedrals. They may have been at the forefront of technology for 500 years and even had a decent run in the 2000s, but in this current battle they're not even a player. And yes, even India, where this tweet sums up their reaction better than I ever could.
Not sure about Japan or SK's reaction. Although I gander with the overtures Japan has been making to China even before Deespeek, they already long saw the writing on the wall and SK has well, bigger things to worry about right now.
 

lube

Junior Member
Registered Member
Sure, this still doesn't invalidate anything I wrote.

And the point is to debunk the "50k H100s", which is widespread from Alexandr Wang

Yeah I'm saying it's likely he even made that number up.
He posting this misinformation to 1) Hopefully get this line to people in power that are able to hit China with more sanctions. 2) Say China is only keeping up because of sanctions evasion and being a thief. Total annihilation otherwise.

You can just read his articles on SemiAnalysis on how a complete sanctions enforcement regime is a silver bullet against China.

And he was doing the same thing before, posting all sorts of sinophoic misinfo and now he's turned his personal vendetta into his main job. A zebra doesn't change its stripes.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Now that the dust has settled somewhat, we can say in the grand scheme of things that Deepseek hurts as much as it does, because it is China's first major victory over America in the tech war.

To preface, the tech war has been going on for some 6 odd years now, with the opening salvo fired at ZTE, which caught the Chinese tech sector completely flatfooted. Since that episode though, most of the background back and forth between US and China has resulted in little changes, with most of the major battles largely resulting draws. Take Huawei, yes they maintained a significant global 5g presence and their phone business came roaring back in China. But I would still call it a draw, until Huawei is able to actually export its phones again. TikTok too is a draw, since the ban has only been delayed and the app still can't be downloaded in the US, although the XHS surge was definately an unforseen consequence of that battle.

Deepseek though is catching the Americans completely flatfooted the sameway the ZTE ban caught China flatfooted. The American reactions have been covered to death for the past two days, so I won't go futher. Instead, more indicative of how large this victory is, is how third parties have taken the news. Across the board in Europe, there is a morbid acceptance that their continent has zero relevance to the world now, outside of handbags and cathedrals. They may have been at the forefront of technology for 500 years and even had a decent run in the 2000s, but in this current battle they're not even a player. And yes, even India, where this tweet sums up their reaction better than I ever could.

You first said that you are measuring "tech war" so why are you using economic metrics like how many phones Huawei now exports outside or TikTok's potential shutdown in the US (???) as outcomes of that? If we are looking at tech, Huawei has now widened its tech lead over anything Americans have in existence, developed many new amazing technologies in the meantime that China didn't have before, and is the company with the most patent grants in the world. Remember American goal has been about to shut it down as this is a "tech war" as you said? Whereas TikTok still remains something American social media can only dream about from an algo perspective. In reality, the US didn't win anything.
 
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