It's interesting because around the time when China was importing J-11 there were voices in PLAAF saying Flanker is so much better than the then in development J-10 and the project should be dropped and the funds made available to buy more J-11. It went all the way to the top to Jiang Zemin who was very supportive of J-10 program because he understood the need to nurture domestic aircraft R&D to pave the way for future aircraft. He apparently smashed a teacup in front of PLAAF people and yelled at them telling them he doesn't want to hear from them again asking to cancel J-10.
While certainly the correct decision in retrospect as the experience gained by CAC eventually lead to the J-20 and J-36 today, Elder was taking on risk by supporting J-10, not only placing trust in CAC's ability to deliver but also it meant China had to take geopolitical threats on the chin in the meanwhile to not spark off any wars while they PLA was in a relatively weak state. Hence Yinhe incident, bombing of Belgrade embassy in 1999 and Hainan EP-3 incident in 2001.
Now that something similar is playing out in India I'm wondering if the decision to stick with Tejas is correct and could J-10 ended up going the same way if CAC was like HAL.
Jiang inherited a weak hand but placed it well. But the J10 call wasn’t as big as you are implying. Even if China bought a thousand more Flankers from Russia, it wouldn’t have changed things as far as your examples went.
The Tejas decision is irrelevant to be frank. The problem isn’t with this one project but the whole Indian establishment and industrial structure.
SAC was HAL, growing fat and complacent and kept looking for foreigners to give them the next big thing instead of seeking to advance and innovate themselves. And that was with CAC and the J10 giving them direct competition since they say the J11 as the high end with the J10 as the low end, and assumed a similar standing between SAC and CAC. It wasn’t until Chengdu won the next gen fighter contest with the J20 that SAC really fundamentally changed their ways. And that was with a big talent injection direct from CAC to SAC.
India with HAL as the monopoly supplier has no chance as HAL is too big to fail and will just never change their ways and keep failing upwards to secure more and more contracts and funding.
If the Indian government split HAL down the middle and had half work the the Tejas with the rest continue with flankers, they might at least have a chance.