plawolf
Lieutenant General
I don't think you can model this trade war the same as 2018.
In 2018 Chinese industry was objectively not as dominant as it is now
More importantly back then China didn't know how much power itself was, or how weak and incompetent western countries turned out to be.
After 6 years of failed and forgotten trade war, China now knows just how much power the west actually has and how much power itself has, the west is this time going into the trade war with an inflation crisis, and China is going into it with 4 years of dual-circulation, not to mention this time China has almost elusive RMB/non-USD trade with Russia and much of the global south.
China has actively eliminated export rebate on key industrial intermediates to raise prices, and and has been adding more and more products to export control over the last 2 years. So if Americans think they can negotate the same way they did last time and think China cares about maintaining exports to them, they're probably going to have a very bad time.
More than that, in 2018, the Chinese economy was by design, massively integrated and co-dependant with the collective west. That was meant to be China’s insurance policy to ensure the west does not turn on her, since the west will do as much damage to itself as it does to China with any trade or hot wars. But that cuts both ways. The primary reason China’s responses were so ‘weak’ back then was because any retaliation China did was going to hurt China as much as America.
Since then, while the west has talked about de-coupling and de-risking, China has quietly done it.
This means that China has far far more ammo to use against Trump 2.0 in a trade war compared to last time. And unlike last time, these actions are not going to damage China in their use.