I understand from a military standpoint,that this is the only area along the area of demarcation where the Indian military have an advantage over China.
Military situation in the sino-indian border
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Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Here show China special force exercise in Tibet with helicopter insertion
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
This is an excellent write up about what really cause the border incident. At heart is India fear that bhutan will cede Dokla to the Chinese. Excerpt for full article click the link. first posted by Tony Leung CDF
At the heart of the issue is the lingering suspicion in India about the possibility of Bhutan ceding the Doklam plateau – located on the strategic tri-junction of Bhutan, the Chumbi Valley in China and the state of Sikkim in India. The area is extremely critical to India’s security as it overlooks the Siliguri corridor. China, on the other hand, has held a tough position on Doklam and has been upgrading infrastructure networks, including roads in nearby areas, on the lines that it has built in Aksai Chin.
Bhutan’s slowly-changing stance
Until recently, as per the treaty obligation, Bhutan has kept India’s interest in mind and evaded a settlement with China. The general approach has been that the country could neither bargain nor impose its will on the matter, and therefore would go along with India and China’s mutual understanding.
Through this conflict, Bhutan has appeared to want to settle the Doklam issue once and for all, and thereafter maintain friendly and equidistant ties with both India and China.
We must note that Bhutanese position has been changing in a subtle way, especially the manner in which their boundary negotiation with China was proceeding without the knowledge of India. According to Govinda Rizal, a Bhutan watcher, soon after the Druk king had stepped down in 2007, the interim government produced a map without Kulakangri (Bhutan’s tallest peak), indicating that it had unofficially ceded the region to China. Rizal contended that during 2008-2013, Bhutan neither accepted the swap nor tried to regain the ‘‘ land.
Nevertheless, Rizal said the two had agreed to the border demarcations in Pasamlung and Jakarlung. The settlement in the north was to pave the way to determine the course of action to settle the western border in Doklam. It seems that agreement on a had been reached during the 19th round of boundary talks held in January 2010. Perhaps this was also the outcome of the between the then Bhutanese Prime Minister Jigme Thinley and the then Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in June 2012 in Rio de Janeiro.
The agreement also perhaps included the decision to establish diplomatic ties. The Chinese claimed that China and Bhutan gained remarkable headway on the boundary issue during the held in Thimphu on August 10, 2012.
According to some reports, China has already seized over 8,000 square km of Bhutanese land. Credit: Reuters/Damir Sagolj
According to Rizal, China had offered Thinley a financial deal for the border settlement. However, some news reports suggested that China had already and Bhutan’s total area has reduced to 38,390 square km from 46,500 square km since 2010. In fact, many suspected this was the reason for India’s disappointment, which resulted in it and his party in the 2013 general elections in Bhutan and thus put a spoke in the wheel of the settlement.
Several Bhutanese analysts have argued that neither Bhutan nor India has a strong historical argument to lay claim over Doklam, Sinchulumpa, Dramana and Shakhatoe vis-à-vis China. Bhutan’s claims, they contend, are based on an “imaginary line drawn on paper by some British surveyors – like those of the McMahon Lines – without actual verification on the ground,” , a well-known commentator.
At the heart of the issue is the lingering suspicion in India about the possibility of Bhutan ceding the Doklam plateau – located on the strategic tri-junction of Bhutan, the Chumbi Valley in China and the state of Sikkim in India. The area is extremely critical to India’s security as it overlooks the Siliguri corridor. China, on the other hand, has held a tough position on Doklam and has been upgrading infrastructure networks, including roads in nearby areas, on the lines that it has built in Aksai Chin.
Bhutan’s slowly-changing stance
Until recently, as per the treaty obligation, Bhutan has kept India’s interest in mind and evaded a settlement with China. The general approach has been that the country could neither bargain nor impose its will on the matter, and therefore would go along with India and China’s mutual understanding.
Through this conflict, Bhutan has appeared to want to settle the Doklam issue once and for all, and thereafter maintain friendly and equidistant ties with both India and China.
We must note that Bhutanese position has been changing in a subtle way, especially the manner in which their boundary negotiation with China was proceeding without the knowledge of India. According to Govinda Rizal, a Bhutan watcher, soon after the Druk king had stepped down in 2007, the interim government produced a map without Kulakangri (Bhutan’s tallest peak), indicating that it had unofficially ceded the region to China. Rizal contended that during 2008-2013, Bhutan neither accepted the swap nor tried to regain the ‘‘ land.
Nevertheless, Rizal said the two had agreed to the border demarcations in Pasamlung and Jakarlung. The settlement in the north was to pave the way to determine the course of action to settle the western border in Doklam. It seems that agreement on a had been reached during the 19th round of boundary talks held in January 2010. Perhaps this was also the outcome of the between the then Bhutanese Prime Minister Jigme Thinley and the then Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in June 2012 in Rio de Janeiro.
The agreement also perhaps included the decision to establish diplomatic ties. The Chinese claimed that China and Bhutan gained remarkable headway on the boundary issue during the held in Thimphu on August 10, 2012.
According to some reports, China has already seized over 8,000 square km of Bhutanese land. Credit: Reuters/Damir Sagolj
According to Rizal, China had offered Thinley a financial deal for the border settlement. However, some news reports suggested that China had already and Bhutan’s total area has reduced to 38,390 square km from 46,500 square km since 2010. In fact, many suspected this was the reason for India’s disappointment, which resulted in it and his party in the 2013 general elections in Bhutan and thus put a spoke in the wheel of the settlement.
Several Bhutanese analysts have argued that neither Bhutan nor India has a strong historical argument to lay claim over Doklam, Sinchulumpa, Dramana and Shakhatoe vis-à-vis China. Bhutan’s claims, they contend, are based on an “imaginary line drawn on paper by some British surveyors – like those of the McMahon Lines – without actual verification on the ground,” , a well-known commentator.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
It would be pure folly to assume that the PLA would meekly dance to India's tune on this, especially since it has had plenty of time to bring in reinforcements and support forces and also plan appropriate escalation scenarios to bring in theatres where they hold decisive terrain advantages.
China has the ultimate escalation advantage in any cross boarder conflict, and can pretty much pick and choose how far to escalate the conflict to suit its own aims.
Initially, the PLA would likely stick to a limited escalation strategy to allow them to take and maintain a decisive overall advantage while minimising the scope of the conflict.
If India tries to counter-escalate, China can and will widen the conflict and inflict ever greater pain on India until they capitulate. The more the Indians escalate, the greater the costs inflicted on them, and the greater the likelihood of China not returning any captured territory after a ceasefire is agreed.
TBH, I think one of the main things holding China back at the moment, other than the already mentioned obvious strategic and diplomat considerations, is that the Chinese can't quite believe how incredibly stupid the Indians are being.
They cannot believe India would willingly and deliberately create a stand-off that puts themselves in such a terrible disadvantage, so may be overthinking things trying to figure out what their amazing move/angle might be when there isn't one.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
As I said before the thing to watch is the movement of troop and equipment to Tibet military region
KJ-500 early warning control machine appearing at Tibetan airport. From Oedo
チベットの空港に現れるKJ-500早期警戒管制機
KJ-500 early warning control machine appearing at Tibetan airport. From Oedo
チベットの空港に現れるKJ-500早期警戒管制機
I think that it would be important if china explains what do they mean by that. Otherwise people will believe that its just empty posturing.
There is no evidence that china is interfering or about to interfere in any way in kashmir. That would be too risky for china.
TBH, i dont think that the indians are being stupid. I dont think that any party will back off, so they probably will just dug in indefinetly.
Jura The idiot
General
I was about to protest, as I didn't say what you quoted as "Jura said", but I quickly realized it came from Xinhua:
Yesterday at 6:48 PM
you made my day (I think many posters know why)!
ROFL Jura
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
I can't tell if what the Indians are doing is stupid until we see in the long term whether it works. In the short term, it's not stupid. If they ever wanted a chance to do this, it would be now, with the tensions on the Korean peninsula. Perhaps they are hoping that Trump keeps those tensions up for 8 more years and with time, the Indian position becomes accepted. In the long term, though, when China becomes freer to respond, it may decide to push India back further than before (since the ball's already rolling), in which case, the whole thing would prove to be stupid for India. I think we all know that when China has its hands free, it's not going to be possible for India to be stubborn with China and "indefinitely" can only be defined as "no set date according to original Indian plans." A short, measured military push by China will get them out of there quick and they'll be left complaining to the UN or something. BUT, that can only be achieved when China's forces are free to really strike hard in India's direction so they see that they can't escalate this in their favor.
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