List of results from China-Taiwan computer war simulations.

Hello all -

As early as 12 years old, in around 2001, I heard that RAND of the US did a China-Taiwan war simulation, where China had lost.

Some 10 years later in 2010, I heard that the same RAND report did a more recently updated China-Taiwan computer war simulation, where the balance of power tipped in favor to China, with the incorporation of ballistic missiles etc.. etc..

Does anyone have a complete list of past and present China-Taiwan war simulation results? (not simply win/lose, but specific OrBat, etc...)

I am interested because recently, Taipei Times claimed that Taiwan won the most recent China-Taiwan war simulations ()

No wander the US congress accuse their military using 2nd hand commercial level of chips, FROM CHINA, for their latest military hardware flaws...

+1 for the interesting for the abovementioned detailed reports.

Phead128 said:

I am interested because recently, Taipei Times claimed that Taiwan won the most recent China-Taiwan war simulations (

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I strongly suspect that the ROC military manipulates their simulations to be optimistic.

Finn McCool said:

I strongly suspect that the ROC military manipulates their simulations to be optimistic.

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I, on the other hand, suspect that the ROC military didn't run a simulation at all and are making up stuff to lighten the mood before the election.

If Taiwan makes it through one week, that would be impressive

In a blitzkrieg attack by mainland China, it is difficult to see how Taiwan can even survive the initial bombardment of its limited military bases by 1,800 short-range ballistic missiles. It is questionable whether Taiwan can last one or two weeks under a withering Chinese assault.

I think it is a stretch to claim victory for Taiwan. They were greedy. They should have just claimed a draw in their simulation. That is at least slightly plausible, depending on the duration and whether China only uses a fraction of its forces.

Taipei Times said:

"Out at sea, a division of PLA landing craft groups would head toward Taiwan, with more than 100,000 soldiers crossing the Taiwan Strait in civilian vessels."
-Taipei Times

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It took me some 10 years to figure it out - China will send an invasion force to Taiwan using fishing boats and other civilian vessels. Now it makes sense, because I've always thought China lacked sufficient numbers of amphibious assault landing crafts for an invasion of Taiwan!

Taipei Times said:

"The report said the key point to winning the war simulation is that after the PLA launched the missile strikes, Taiwan’s air force quickly moved its major fighters into tunnels at Hualien Air Force Base. "
-Taipei Times

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So this is how ROC was able to win - it maintained air superiority by ensuring ballastic missiles do not hit ROC's airplanes, which where sheltered in hollowed-out mountain caves prior to the missile assault, thereby protecting them from PLA ballastic missile attack.

Hollowed-out mountains for airplanes! Genius!

Taipei Times said:

"The report said the landing craft groups would pretend to be heading toward northern Taiwan and that the Sixth Army Corps stationed in northern Taiwan would prepare to ward off the enemy. However, the sea troops would suddenly change direction and land in the area near Taichung Harbor and the Dajia River (大甲溪)."
-Taipei Times

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Um, how did the ROC army know that PLA will "pretend" to head towards Northern Taiwan???

Did the ROC really hack PLA strategic plans to invade Taiwan - if not, how does the ROC reliably make such assumptions??

Phead128 said:

It took me some 10 years to figure it out - China will send an invasion force to Taiwan using fishing boats and other civilian vessels. Now it makes sense, because I've always thought China lacked sufficient numbers of amphibious assault landing crafts for an invasion of Taiwan!



So this is how ROC was able to win - it maintained air superiority by ensuring ballastic missiles do not hit ROC's airplanes, which where sheltered in hollowed-out mountain caves prior to the missile assault, thereby protecting them from PLA ballastic missile attack.

Hollowed-out mountains for airplanes! Genius!



Um, how did the ROC army know that PLA will "pretend" to head towards Northern Taiwan???

Did the ROC really hack PLA strategic plans to invade Taiwan - if not, how does the ROC reliably make such assumptions??

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If putting them in tunnels means ROC wins the day, then what does that make Iraq? Saddam even buried his fighters in sand.

airsuperiority said:

If putting them in tunnels means ROC wins the day, then what does that make Iraq? Saddam even buried his fighters in sand.

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Regardless of whether the planes survive or not, you gotta give the ROCAF credit for knowing exactly WHEN PLA will makes its SURPRISE attack and having the foresight to put the planes in the tunnel.

Thanks to the fact that the entire ROCAF is in a mountain, the poor PLA would be unable to utilize its ballistic missiles. Instead, they'll just have to rely on their pitiful air force of a couple hundred outdated fighters (such as the obsolete J-10, J-11, JH-7, nothing in the league of the powerful F-5 and FCK-1) dropping bombs everywhere.

Taiwan's airforce can be neutralized by destroying runways. You can't hide those.

Phead128 said:

So this is how ROC was able to win - it maintained air superiority by ensuring ballastic missiles do not hit ROC's airplanes, which where sheltered in hollowed-out mountain caves prior to the missile assault, thereby protecting them from PLA ballastic missile attack.

Hollowed-out mountains for airplanes! Genius!

Click to expand...

The locations of Taiwan's "hollowed-out mountain" airbase(s) are well-known. After China destroys the runways that protrude from those mountains, the Taiwanese airforce has been nullified. Whether the Taiwanese airforce has been physically destroyed or made inoperable (due to the lack of a functional runway), the military result is the same. China has air superiority during the duration of the China-Taiwan military conflict.


Damaged Serbian runway incapacitated Serbian airforce. "Bomb damage at Batajnica."
"Batajnica Airport is a military airport located near Belgrade, Serbia and Montenegro. It is used for purposes of defending capital of Serbia and Vojvodina."


Damaged runway during Pacific War was heavily cratered.



"According to a Rand Corp. report issue in August 2009, a Chinese missile attack on Taiwan could 'cut every runway at Taiwan’s half-dozen main fighter bases and destroy essentially all of the aircraft parked on ramps, allowing China to dominate the skies of Taiwan.'”

I'm pretty sure the ROC Airforce has converted many civilian high ways for dual purpose use...

I've seen a video Youtube. Perhaps the hollowed-out cave tunnels in the mountains have an access outlet to nearby civilian highways which the ROC Airforce can use as a take off strip...