Correct ! There are other even more strategic miscalculations being propagated by so called experts. While Shukla is at least giving credit to the S-400 threat there are dozens of so called "experts " ( and we don't need to reference their garbage here) who are discounting the threat from PLA SAMS, AAA, and even MANPADS entirely. These experts claim that the PLA doctrine of layered ground based defense is based on dated Soviet tactics commonly adopted by Arab air defenses (with not much success ) against the Israelis in the Middle East conflicts.
Ladakh Flash Point
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Correct ! There are other even more strategic miscalculations being propagated by so called experts. While Shukla is at least giving credit to the S-400 threat there are dozens of so called "experts " ( and we don't need to reference their garbage here) who are discounting the threat from PLA SAMS, AAA, and even MANPADS entirely. These experts claim that the PLA doctrine of layered ground based defense is based on dated Soviet tactics commonly adopted by Arab air defenses (with not much success ) against the Israelis in the Middle East conflicts.
Air defence is at most a supplement to offensive forces that work at eliminating enemy strike options and material. Arab states and Soviet doctrines idealised air defence as more faultless than it really is. They typically sent SAMs out to defend certain targets while giving their opponents the time to properly plan and execute strikes without doing anything to disrupt their enemies further down the chain. PLA doesn't think air defence is some sort of layered silver bullet solution to enemy strikes. If there is a war, PLARF, PLA artillery, and PLAAF are going to make sure the Indians have nothing to throw within 200km at least. HQ series missiles in layers are just there to intercept whatever is left that slip through the offensive strikes while the longer ranged SAMs can do their bit in annoying fighters and preventing them from entering certain areas.
S-400 doesn't have 400km range. Shukla is totally wrong. On the absolute best of days, with the most favoured of atmosphere, with a low altitude target, in the perfect max reach of the S-400's 40N6E, it still probably doesn't get close to 400km. At least not with any decent energy. Shukla's claim that S-400 can hit Indian aircraft at 400km range really shows he barely has an understanding of rudimentary stuff when it comes to some hardware. With all due respect to his experience and rank.
S-400 doesn't have 400km range. Shukla is totally wrong. On the absolute best of days, with the most favoured of atmosphere, with a low altitude target, in the perfect max reach of the S-400's 40N6E, it still probably doesn't get close to 400km. At least not with any decent energy. Shukla's claim that S-400 can hit Indian aircraft at 400km range really shows he barely has an understanding of rudimentary stuff when it comes to some hardware. With all due respect to his experience and rank.
PLA has decent air defence against inferior adversary - no VLO, no means of attrition, few if any stand off weapons. SCALP inventory in IAF you can almost count on your fingers and toes and they only got first batches a few months ago with 5 fighters that can launch them.
PLA can be considered to have decent air defence against India because India has almost zero SEAD and DEAD capability. They don't have the platforms that can perform these tasks. They don't have stand off weapons that outrange HQ-9 NEZ so those Rafales are dead if they want to drop some SCALP against HQ-9 defended targets. They don't have low flying strike aircraft or bombers that can carry heavy loads to make up for lack of sophisticated ordinance. They don't have cruise missiles until Nirbhay problems are resolved and the missiles gets into service. They don't have long ranged artillery in any significant numbers. They import all the stuff that are barely even half capable.
Meanwhile, PLA has hundreds upon hundreds of HQ-9, HQ-22, HQ-16, HQ-17, HQ-7 and so on. PLA air defence against a foe without VLO and without the ability to perform attrition against Chinese targets means PLA's air defence can be considered effective alone against India. Detection systems are not even comparable. The best Israeli based radar technologies applied by the Indians are second rate, older generation, export models.
It would take a force with the numbers and sophistication of the US military to slowly poke through the PLA's air defences. More importantly, the distancing. Indians are sitting ducks and unprotected targets. So much so that I don't even believe the Indians could achieve a first strike of any decent scale against PLA targets before PLA offensive ordinance are expedited towards Indian targets which are defended by the 1960s, mach 3, Kub copy - Akash.
PLA can be considered to have decent air defence against India because India has almost zero SEAD and DEAD capability. They don't have the platforms that can perform these tasks. They don't have stand off weapons that outrange HQ-9 NEZ so those Rafales are dead if they want to drop some SCALP against HQ-9 defended targets. They don't have low flying strike aircraft or bombers that can carry heavy loads to make up for lack of sophisticated ordinance. They don't have cruise missiles until Nirbhay problems are resolved and the missiles gets into service. They don't have long ranged artillery in any significant numbers. They import all the stuff that are barely even half capable.
Meanwhile, PLA has hundreds upon hundreds of HQ-9, HQ-22, HQ-16, HQ-17, HQ-7 and so on. PLA air defence against a foe without VLO and without the ability to perform attrition against Chinese targets means PLA's air defence can be considered effective alone against India. Detection systems are not even comparable. The best Israeli based radar technologies applied by the Indians are second rate, older generation, export models.
It would take a force with the numbers and sophistication of the US military to slowly poke through the PLA's air defences. More importantly, the distancing. Indians are sitting ducks and unprotected targets. So much so that I don't even believe the Indians could achieve a first strike of any decent scale against PLA targets before PLA offensive ordinance are expedited towards Indian targets which are defended by the 1960s, mach 3, Kub copy - Akash.
So the ego boosting bhakt will convince himself that Su-30MKI is still relevant because it can deliver brahmos. The Rafale has magic electronic stealth SPECTRRRA (even though it's just a suite of very common integrated sensors from the 1990s). The Indians can somehow dodge thousands of Chinese shells, dozens of ballistic and hypersonic warheads, and dozens of cruise missiles and will be able to repair whatever damages are taken within a day.
The reality is the Chinese side will know a strike is coming as soon as IAF planes are on the tarmac taking off.
There are still people who believe the Indians hold any shred of military advantage. Their own military and government have proven that they know better through their inaction.
The reality is the Chinese side will know a strike is coming as soon as IAF planes are on the tarmac taking off.
There are still people who believe the Indians hold any shred of military advantage. Their own military and government have proven that they know better through their inaction.
The IAF couldn't come out of a fight against the PAF in one piece. They fail against an opposition many times smaller than itself and the idiots think they can take on a vastly superior force with much superior equipment and the ability to produce as much as it wants as quickly as it wants without ordering FedEx express from France, Israel, and Russia. The Indians need several new wonder weapons and some better strategies just to balance things. Formidable. Indians are masters of word games.
It needs to have a working cruise missile reverse engineered or whatever (the Nirbhay is just a Tomahawk copy etc etc lol). Something China managed in the 1970s. Then it needs to build thousands of them. It needs at least one stealth fighter or bomber. It needs thousands of long range artillery units of various types. It needs to develop and make its own guided artillery munition. It needs hundreds more upgrade Su-30MKI with ESA radars and much better MRAAMs than the early R-77 and R-27. It needs hundreds of Rafale fully equipped. Then it can talk about being semi-formidable. Currently the Indians are about a trillion dollars short and at least 2 decades of work (still just importing) away from "formidable".
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It is not the outcome of the military showdown that is in doubt.
What is significant is the delusions and mass media hype that will cause the showdown to happen.
Wars happen precisely because the competency of military advisers is compromised by illogical ideological and political mindsets.
This has been discussed at length on this thread. It is still relevant to observe the delusions being perpetrated on social and mass media. The more the delusions and the more the intensity of the media hype the more a conflict is likely to happen. The masses in India are being mentally conditioned for a conflict. This was observed last year on the LOC involving Pakistan.
What is significant is the delusions and mass media hype that will cause the showdown to happen.
Wars happen precisely because the competency of military advisers is compromised by illogical ideological and political mindsets.
This has been discussed at length on this thread. It is still relevant to observe the delusions being perpetrated on social and mass media. The more the delusions and the more the intensity of the media hype the more a conflict is likely to happen. The masses in India are being mentally conditioned for a conflict. This was observed last year on the LOC involving Pakistan.
I don't think their media can cause any showdown. Their military and government have backed off the prospect of fighting so violently they've essentially switched the safety on, removed the clip, cleared the chamber, and melted down their weapons to show China. The false bravado their media is propping up is for bhakt consumption. Both by design to alleviate negative attention towards BJP and because it sells well within the incredibly nationalistic population in India... something like over 70% of Indians according to their own surveys.
Their gov and military know a showdown will be over in hours with India losing every base and airfield. Hindutva farting and Yoga spells aren't going to stop the thousands of PLA artillery shells. India won't be able to stop PLA from picking whatever target it wants to hit anywhere in India with ballistic missiles, HGVs, and cruise missiles. India itself has just enough Agni missiles to throw in case of nuclear war and won't be using many if at all. Most can't reach urban China in the east and the ones that can reach PLA bases and airfields number in the dozens only. PLA has HQ-19, HQ-26, HQ-29, S-400, HQ-9, S-300, HQ-16, and HQ-17 for intercepting those Indian ballistic missiles. India has... a few hundred Akash in total around the country to intercept PLA warheads and missiles.
Once the offensive strikes are done and the dust settles to reveal important targets beyond repair, it would be a PLA with air superiority and H-6 carpet bombing vs the Indian army with some 4th gen fighters that somehow are still remaining... with few places if anywhere to land and refuel and reload. There is absolutely no alternative to this chain of events. Can India destroy all the PLA bases and airfields with a few dozen SCALP and hundred Brahmos? How would it even pull off such a thing? Fly in and drop amirite?? LOL
Absolutely no contest ! Just remember that you are facing the leader of a nation who believes Pakistani air defense radars don't work in cloud and rain, There is also a defense minister who trusts in putting lemons and chillies on Rafale aircraft to make them invulnerable.
The odd aspect of these delusions is that no Indian Air Force officer chose ( or dared) to correct the Indian Prime Minister about how radars work. There is neither any comment on the efficacy of chillies and lemons being applied to Rafale aircraft.
Just as the senior air force commanders were overridden to execute a botched strike on Pakistan a similar mistake against China is likely to happen with far more unfortunate results.
There are astrologers advising the leaders there. Sometime back in history the leader of a nation renowned for its scientific and technological achievements did just that when assessing the course to war.
As Mr. Spock would say :
"Illogical"
The offensive weapons favour PLA to an almost absolute degree. India has but a handful of unsophisticated ballistic missiles it can throw. It has no cruise missiles, not counting brahmos for now.
After the one sided ballistic and cruise missile exchange the artillery barrage that accompany it is also nearly as one sided at least when it comes to range.
Then it's all air superiority which is the only area that is uncertain. But how is the IAF going to take initiative and make moves when all their airfields are cratered and most of the fighters gone with the initial strikes??
Those Brahmos and SCALP missiles are all air launched. They need Su-30MKI and Rafales to fly to deliver them. For this they need to survive the ongoing offensive strikes and they need to contest air superiority. So can MKI, Mig-29, Mirage 2000, and a handful Rafales operating hundreds of kilometers away, take air superiority from J-11B, J-10C, and possibly if conflict were even remotely realistic, also J-20 and J-16? IAF missile inventory have the numbers? Very doubtful. Then there's PLA's air defences to get in their way and more numerous and superior radars on the Chinese side. Even if IAF achieves air supremacy and there are no PLAAF flying in the region at all, how long before PLARF take out those Rafale and MKI airfields?
There is no current chain of events that result in India gaining any upper hand. No matter how you give India the theoretical advantage, the PLA with what is known can easily still handle it without straining. In reality the PLAAF will send J-10C, J-16, J-20, and all types of drones and weapons to immediately take and maintain air supremacy while Indian airfields and positions are already flattened and flattened again. H-6 can carpet bomb for cheap all day long after first wave attacks. IAF fighters from other parts of India will need to challenge PLAAF air supremacy to create any opportunity to just give the PLA some resistance. The India army will be chewed up at stand off ranges.
The whole thing is pointless for China because it gains nothing. Settling the border is good enough even if the Indians are upset about it. Forcing them to spend more money they don't have on $200M Rafale unit packages and the like is even better. Let India continue to make small ridiculously overpriced weapons purchases of token numbers. These guys are hopeless. Don't buy anything near enough to be of any use and can't reverse engineer or use imports to create basis for own MIC. They'll need to spend at least a trillion USD just to get halfway to formidable.
After the one sided ballistic and cruise missile exchange the artillery barrage that accompany it is also nearly as one sided at least when it comes to range.
Then it's all air superiority which is the only area that is uncertain. But how is the IAF going to take initiative and make moves when all their airfields are cratered and most of the fighters gone with the initial strikes??
Those Brahmos and SCALP missiles are all air launched. They need Su-30MKI and Rafales to fly to deliver them. For this they need to survive the ongoing offensive strikes and they need to contest air superiority. So can MKI, Mig-29, Mirage 2000, and a handful Rafales operating hundreds of kilometers away, take air superiority from J-11B, J-10C, and possibly if conflict were even remotely realistic, also J-20 and J-16? IAF missile inventory have the numbers? Very doubtful. Then there's PLA's air defences to get in their way and more numerous and superior radars on the Chinese side. Even if IAF achieves air supremacy and there are no PLAAF flying in the region at all, how long before PLARF take out those Rafale and MKI airfields?
There is no current chain of events that result in India gaining any upper hand. No matter how you give India the theoretical advantage, the PLA with what is known can easily still handle it without straining. In reality the PLAAF will send J-10C, J-16, J-20, and all types of drones and weapons to immediately take and maintain air supremacy while Indian airfields and positions are already flattened and flattened again. H-6 can carpet bomb for cheap all day long after first wave attacks. IAF fighters from other parts of India will need to challenge PLAAF air supremacy to create any opportunity to just give the PLA some resistance. The India army will be chewed up at stand off ranges.
The whole thing is pointless for China because it gains nothing. Settling the border is good enough even if the Indians are upset about it. Forcing them to spend more money they don't have on $200M Rafale unit packages and the like is even better. Let India continue to make small ridiculously overpriced weapons purchases of token numbers. These guys are hopeless. Don't buy anything near enough to be of any use and can't reverse engineer or use imports to create basis for own MIC. They'll need to spend at least a trillion USD just to get halfway to formidable.
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