If the rogue Indian commanding officer explains India's aggression which resulted in the Chinese response where the Indian CO was killed along with maybe two others in fighting that got out of hand, then it explains how so many Indians were captured and how the 17 or more others died from a combination of their injuries being unattended and exposure. Looks like the PLA was mostly interested in holding the Indian CO accountable and once he was killed, the others either gave up and got captured while others ran and either returned to Indian posts or died from exposure and falling down ravines and into the river. Chinese story makes the most sense despite it being rather quiet. At the very least the Chinese are consistent in what they are saying and matches the official numbers of Indian losses and captured given by Indians. The second hand back of 10 more senior officers being delayed by about a week also makes sense in this narrative.
Ladakh Flash Point
- Thread starter Mt1701d
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I kinda don't believe that India has this undisciplined a military, especially for someone so high up. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a way for India to save some face and deescalate, and put blame solely on the colonel in order to hide that this possibly was an order from up top to test Chinese resolve and maybe hopefully incite China to do something drastic so they can film it and use it as further propaganda.
I hope China will release more footage, but that might not happen until a much further time if tensions spike back up again.
Recently I ran across a post on Weibo that stated India is importing a lot of sleeping bags from Europe and the U.S. I think they might be in it from the long haul.
Start believing.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Looking back, I think we came a lot closer to an all out boarder war than most realise.
The commander level agreement from the 6th of June would have been seen as a huge positive step by the PLA at easing tensions. But the provocation and attack lead by the rouge colonel so soon afterwards would have utterly destroy all trust and goodwill India might have had from the PLA.
That is extremely dangerous and significant, because if the Chinese no longer trusted anything the Indians had to say, then that drastically reduced the means of effective communications while magnifying the possibly of misunderstandings exponentially.
I think when the PLA force commander learnt of the attack, his first act would have been to put his entire force on high combat alert, as under those circumstances, he would have to conclude that the agreement from just a week earlier would have been a deception, and the only reason for the Indians to make such a move is to try to lure the PLA into letting down their guard for a sneak attack.
At the same time he would have passed on all that information up the chain of command to Beijing, who would have reacted with fury at the Indians and made the depth of that feeling known to the Indians through diplomatic channels, as well as a clear and final warning - you have deceived us, and you have launched an unprovoked attack that we consider a clear sign of hostility, this is your last chance to change course. Any more signs of aggression will be met with the full might of the PLA.
I am not sure if there is a hotline between the Chinese and Indian force commanders at the front, but if there is, the PLA force commander would have also convey that final warning to the Indian force commander.
I think this realisation of just how close they came to the brink is what cowed Modi so much, which was pretty clear from his public announcements surrounding the issue since.
The need to not show any more moves that could possibly be seen as further signs of treachery or aggression by the PLA could also explain how those 17 other Indian soldiers managed to die from exposure overnight, and why no Indian search and rescue effort was made to recover them until the next morning, after the Indians have gotten effective permission from the PLA to go recover their dead.
The heavy PLA helicopter sortie rate observed in the aftermath of the clash could thus be viewed in a different light - those weren’t medevac missions going in empty to take casualties out, but rather helicopters going in fully loaded with PLA rapid reaction forces deploying to reinforce frontline boarder troops, who would have been equipped for normal patrol duties and not heavy combat. These reinforcements would have been equipped for actual combat, and probably would have contained significant special forces elements.
My guess is that a combination of frantic Indian diplomatic assurances; a total freeze on Indian frontline military activities (verified by PLA special forces recon teams); and interviews from captured Indian officers gave the PLA enough assurance to believe the Indians claim that this was the result of rouge officers and not part of some grand scheme by India to try to launch a sneak attack, thus allowed tensions to ease.
Of all of the above, the fact that the Indians were prepared to let their men die from exposure rather than try to recovery them would probably have been the most convincing to the PLA that this really was a rouge op, and that they Indians are serious when they said they didn’t want a fight.
The commander level agreement from the 6th of June would have been seen as a huge positive step by the PLA at easing tensions. But the provocation and attack lead by the rouge colonel so soon afterwards would have utterly destroy all trust and goodwill India might have had from the PLA.
That is extremely dangerous and significant, because if the Chinese no longer trusted anything the Indians had to say, then that drastically reduced the means of effective communications while magnifying the possibly of misunderstandings exponentially.
I think when the PLA force commander learnt of the attack, his first act would have been to put his entire force on high combat alert, as under those circumstances, he would have to conclude that the agreement from just a week earlier would have been a deception, and the only reason for the Indians to make such a move is to try to lure the PLA into letting down their guard for a sneak attack.
At the same time he would have passed on all that information up the chain of command to Beijing, who would have reacted with fury at the Indians and made the depth of that feeling known to the Indians through diplomatic channels, as well as a clear and final warning - you have deceived us, and you have launched an unprovoked attack that we consider a clear sign of hostility, this is your last chance to change course. Any more signs of aggression will be met with the full might of the PLA.
I am not sure if there is a hotline between the Chinese and Indian force commanders at the front, but if there is, the PLA force commander would have also convey that final warning to the Indian force commander.
I think this realisation of just how close they came to the brink is what cowed Modi so much, which was pretty clear from his public announcements surrounding the issue since.
The need to not show any more moves that could possibly be seen as further signs of treachery or aggression by the PLA could also explain how those 17 other Indian soldiers managed to die from exposure overnight, and why no Indian search and rescue effort was made to recover them until the next morning, after the Indians have gotten effective permission from the PLA to go recover their dead.
The heavy PLA helicopter sortie rate observed in the aftermath of the clash could thus be viewed in a different light - those weren’t medevac missions going in empty to take casualties out, but rather helicopters going in fully loaded with PLA rapid reaction forces deploying to reinforce frontline boarder troops, who would have been equipped for normal patrol duties and not heavy combat. These reinforcements would have been equipped for actual combat, and probably would have contained significant special forces elements.
My guess is that a combination of frantic Indian diplomatic assurances; a total freeze on Indian frontline military activities (verified by PLA special forces recon teams); and interviews from captured Indian officers gave the PLA enough assurance to believe the Indians claim that this was the result of rouge officers and not part of some grand scheme by India to try to launch a sneak attack, thus allowed tensions to ease.
Of all of the above, the fact that the Indians were prepared to let their men die from exposure rather than try to recovery them would probably have been the most convincing to the PLA that this really was a rouge op, and that they Indians are serious when they said they didn’t want a fight.
There are some very interesting developments in Nepal right now.
There's a war of influence in Nepal between China and India...
There's a war of influence in Nepal between China and India...
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India is losing Nepal
There is a war in the Nepalese Communist Party between Sharma Oli (Pro-China) and Prachanda (Pro-India)
The indian media have launched a lot of sexist attacks against the Chinese ambassador of Nepal (Hou Yanqi)
and hinted that she had an affair with President Oli
The conflict started when Nepal Parliament approved a new map that includes land India claims
There is a war in the Nepalese Communist Party between Sharma Oli (Pro-China) and Prachanda (Pro-India)
The indian media have launched a lot of sexist attacks against the Chinese ambassador of Nepal (Hou Yanqi)
and hinted that she had an affair with President Oli
The conflict started when Nepal Parliament approved a new map that includes land India claims
Noice, now is the time for full diplomatic encirclement of India, followed by dismemberment / balkanization or regime change.
vesicles
Colonel
I think the core of these incidents is that the Indian government is trying to divert attention from its domestic failures, especially the disastrous handling of the pandemic. Instead of playing the Indian game of "who killed more" and fall into their trap, China should focus on exposing their scheme. Direct the attention of the Indian public back to the core. Let the Indian public know that their government is stirring up border issues and heating up the nationalist feeling, so as to divert attention from its disastrous handling of the pandemic. Especially, remind their opposition parties that the domestic policies of the administration is their weakest spot. Playing the patriots game along with the administration won't get those opposition parties any more votes. Exposing the poor job of the administration, which has directly led to countless suffering of the Indian people, will help them win the next election.
Good luck with that strategy , lol.
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