Ladakh Flash Point

ougoah · Jan 10, 2022

twineedle said:
When have I denied those photos? That has nothing to do with present Indian positions in disputed areas of Galwan in 2022

But you are missing the most important part. I don't understand why this is difficult to comprehend.

I'll try draw it out roughly so it can be visually interpreted.

China controls all of Aksai Chin, AC. India officially claims all the way up to yellow line (overlaps the right most black line) whereas China claims to red line. However China keeps offering India to demarcate along purple line.

We don't known exactly where India's new year photo was taken. We both however agree that India's photo is taken west of the right most black line. The black lines in the right section represents the 20%.

So what I'm saying is that Indians should not be claiming they are taking the photo within disputed since they are allowed on the piece of land they took the photo on. It falls on their side based on China's offers for demarcation since the 1950s.

That would be like saying because China controls (not only with settlements) AC, therefore China won and it's been over since the war since China sits on land India claims.

The difference is that India loses more since India claims 100% of the drawn area and control 0% of it while China is happy to settle for up to purple line and already controls 80%.

ougoah · Jan 10, 2022

twineedle said:
Right. My understanding is the disputed 20% is the are between the Colombo line and the Chinese claim line and/or perception of LAC. As you have said, China's goal is to make this area a buffer, which would effectively cut off India.

From my understanding, while China has offered demarcation in the past, that is not going to happen anytime soon. So in the absence of demarcation, China seems to not want Indian presence anywhere within those areas.

It is not going to happen anytime soon because India refuses to accept China's demarcation offers. Why? Because it means India loses not only Aksai Chin but some slithers (unknown to us in detail) of the 20%.

China's offer since the 1950s have been rejected by India and this is partly why India is the actual aggressor in this Ladakh crisis/flare up.

India has gone on record saying they will capture Aksai Chin in 2019 and increased patrols. Both India's Home Minister which is pretty up there, has officially mentioned this and India's previous 4 Star General has admitted India has patrolled dozens or more times than China ever has.

China just wants India away from Aksai Chin and ideally also not on the 20%. Like I said constantly in the past, India is present in the 20% as is China.

In early to late 2020, both sides had far more presence on the 20% and more confrontations and clashes than they do now. This is because at least two known buffers have been agreed to by India in exchange for China pulling back.

Now China managed to take control of more of the 20% during those confrontations because it is stronger. When India tried to reverse that, Indians were captured in the dozens to over a hundred and lost at least 20 lives while China lost 4 lives and had none captured by India during those big clashes but India captured Chinese scouts who claimed they were "lost" in subsequent lone scouting missions (assumed by me).

So your photo victory of Indians taking a photo on a piece of land that China offers to India is a zero victory.

ougoah · Jan 10, 2022

TLDR - if India is taking a photo on land that China is already offering to India, then India has not gained a single thing.

twineedle · Jan 10, 2022

ougoah said:
But you are missing the most important part. I don't understand why this is difficult to comprehend.

I'll try draw it out roughly so it can be visually interpreted.

View attachment 81045

China controls all of Aksai Chin, AC. India officially claims all the way up to yellow line (overlaps the right most black line) whereas China claims to red line. However China keeps offering India to demarcate along purple line.

We don't known exactly where India's new year photo was taken. We both however agree that India's photo is taken west of the right most black line. The black lines in the right section represents the 20%.

So what I'm saying is that Indians should not be claiming they are taking the photo within disputed since they are allowed on the piece of land they took the photo on. It falls on their side based on China's offers for demarcation since the 1950s.

That would be like saying because China controls (not only with settlements) AC, therefore China won and it's been over since the war since China sits on land India claims.

The difference is that India loses more since India claims 100% of the drawn area and control 0% of it while China is happy to settle for up to purple line and already controls 80%.

Yes, most of Aksai Chin is a part of the dispute settled in 1962 .However There are still parts of it and large parts of Ladakh that are still unsettled, and those areas fall within the disputed 20%. Those areas are where the 2020 standoff took place.

And yes both sides have positions within the 20%, but India has more positions after the disengagement buffers.

twineedle · Jan 10, 2022

ougoah said:
TLDR - if India is taking a photo on land that China is already offering to India, then India has not gained a single thing.

How do you know China is offering that land to India? Obviously China's offers have changed since the Zhou Enlai era. For example previously China used to offer to revoke it's claims to all of Arunachal in exchange for India doing the same with Aksai. However during the 80s China refused any deal that did not recognize Taeang as part of China

Last year, China clearly said all of Galwan was always on the Chinese side of the LAC.

And I can't speak for other areas, but in Pangong, China was patrolling the disputed areas far more than India, and PLA would block Indian soldiers from patrolling past finger 4. This is confirmed by Colonel S. Dinny, who actually served on Pangong and led patrols, which makes him more reputable than other sources. After China was forced to accept a buffer, it cannot even patrol past Sirjiap.

Overbom · Jan 10, 2022

Chill. Almost 3 pages of posts in just 1 hour lol

ougoah · Jan 10, 2022

twineedle said:
How do you know China is offering that land to India? Obviously China's offers have changed since the Zhou Enlai era. For example previously China used to offer to revoke it's claims to all of Arunachal in exchange for India doing the same with Aksai. However during the 80s China refused any deal that did not recognize Taeang as part of China

Last year, China clearly said all of Galwan was always on the Chinese side of the LAC

They could have changed. We don't know but we can only assume they are the same since that's the most accurate piece of info we have on any changes.

We don't know if it's changed. Why do you think it would have changed? Wouldn't India be saying that or China saying that the offers and claims have changed? Since both sides would be made very clear what each other side claims. If anything major like claims and offers have changed, we'd hear of it since one or both would announce it. They have not and based on what we do know, the offer from China is the same and the offer is east of China's official claim.

India has not made any offer that is different to its own claim.

You're being very sneaky with your wording here. China has not said Galwan was always on Chinese side of LAC. China said Galwan is Chinese land. There are at least three semi official LACs, the Indian ideal interpretation, the Chinese ideal interpretation (and these are based on the claims each side makes since both want the LAC to be further) and the actual LAC which would be in between those other two. All three lines are fairly fluid and ill defined.

China claims Galwan is Chinese land.

Indians have been desperately looking for anything they can dress up as a "victory" (I mean you guys make untrue movies of your soldiers capturing PLA when in real life PLA captured so many Indians there weren't enough trucks on one day to ship them all back to India). You guys are saying China defines Galwan as Chinese side of LAC therefore if India has any presence in Galwan (even parts that are not part of buffer agreements or parts that China has repeated offered to give to India), then India has some shred of victory.

As things stand, India controls 0% of the 100% and China controls 80% of the 100% and India maintains claim on the entire 100% while China since 60 years ago has been offering India >0%, <10%.

ougoah · Jan 10, 2022

Let's ask the Indians one important question first that should be established.

Where exactly is India's photo from new year taken? Rather than doing typical indian claims without evidence, can we also establish the location of that photo with some evidence? For all we know the Indians took a photo 10km within India.

twineedle · Jan 10, 2022

ougoah said:
They could have changed. We don't know but we can only assume they are the same since that's the most accurate piece of info we have on any changes.

We don't know if it's changed. Why do you think it would have changed? Wouldn't India be saying that or China saying that the offers and claims have changed? Since both sides would be made very clear what each other side claims. If anything major like claims and offers have changed, we'd hear of it since one or both would announce it. They have not and based on what we do know, the offer from China is the same and the offer is east of China's official claim.

India has not made any offer that is different to its own claim.

You're being very sneaky with your wording here. China has not said Galwan was always on Chinese side of LAC. China said Galwan is Chinese land. There are at least three semi official LACs, the Indian ideal interpretation, the Chinese ideal interpretation (and these are based on the claims each side makes since both want the LAC to be further) and the actual LAC which would be in between those other two. All three lines are fairly fluid and ill defined.

China claims Galwan is Chinese land.

Indians have been desperately looking for anything they can dress up as a "victory" (I mean you guys make untrue movies of your soldiers capturing PLA when in real life PLA captured so many Indians there weren't enough trucks on one day to ship them all back to India). You guys are saying China defines Galwan as Chinese side of LAC therefore if India has any presence in Galwan (even parts that are not part of buffer agreements or parts that China has repeated offered to give to India), then India has some shred of victory.

As things stand, India controls 0% of the 100% and China controls 80% of the 100% and India maintains claim on the entire 100% while China since 60 years ago has been offering India >0%, <10%.

As I said, the 20% is the area between the Chinese and Indian lacs. This vast difference in perception is why there are frequent standoffs.
Don't know how you can say India controls 0% of the dispute when by now it is clear India has many positions within the 20% between the Chinese and aindian perception, including in areas that were previously unoccupied by both sides.

twineedle · Jan 10, 2022

ougoah said:
Let's ask the Indians one important question first that should be established.

Where exactly is India's photo from new year taken? Rather than doing typical indian claims without evidence, can we also establish the location of that photo with some evidence? For all we know the Indians took a photo 10km within India.

Ladakh Flash Point

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