Ladakh Flash Point

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discspinner

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I don't think China is about to invade India or Taiwan any time soon.

I think what China has done so far on the LAC is arguably, as much as it CAN do, as it has advanced its troops to the limit of the LAC as China perceives it at Depsang Bottleneck, Galwan, Pangong Lake, and Demchok, and presenting India with a fait accompli. The clash with deaths was a risk China took, and fortunately that has been contained as Modi and the top Indian leadership have backed down. Even if in the next few months an insubordinate junior commander in the Indian army opens fire, I still think the top leadership on both sides would immediately seek a way to cool tensions because India has made the correct assessment that this is a war with China that cannot be fought.

Now, true, I've been stating that the long term goal of India is for an independent Tibet. However, China can't simply launch a war of aggression to break India up. The best course for China in the long run is, of course, to remain wealthy, powerful, and united itself.
 
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AndrewS

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reservior dogs said:
I think that is probable.

In the long run, if China were not facing the U.S. as an adversary, India would not be a match and there are many ways for the Chinese to deal with India, including breaking up the country into many different ones. However, with the U.S. breathing down on China, they must choose carefully. If they break up India into smaller countries, the West will no doubt get its foot into some of these countries and now you have a permanent war at your borders. From this point of view, India under a single country is in the interest of China.
If they take South Tibet, they now have to spend the time and energy to digest a region with considerable Indian influence. Again, that would not be in their current interest. Particularly, this region acts as a vacuum cleaner sucking large amount of Indian resources defending it while the cost to the Chinese is quite small due to favorable logistics and terrain. However, this does not mean that if a shot was fired by the Indian army, that there would be no consequences.

If you see how the borders around Ladah was drawn, it was a very interesting study. The Chinese won the 62 and can draw the border however it sees fit. The border was drawn this way because on the other side of the border, there is usually a river that runs at the bottom of the canyon. This makes it difficult to supply the other side if you put your soldiers on the other side, at least back in 62. The Chinese, being pragmatists, chose to have a border with lower maintenance instead of getting the last inch of land. Unfortunately, the Indians have built up some roads over the years to the piece of relatively flat ground in Ladah that the Chinese left behind. If even a single shot is fired, I think the Chinese will annihilate the Indian forces and take over this area with the relatively flat terrain, leaving the relatively rugged mountains as their border to India.

Under this scenario, China draw and take out large number of Indian troops would give a window of opportunity to Pakistan to take back Kashmir. Once taken back, I don't see a way for India to re-take it anytime soon. Modi would probably lose the election if they fail to take back Kashmir.
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If India was to break up into separate countries, then yes, I would agree some of them would find an alliance with the USA very attractive.
That inevitably forces their competitor(s) to turn to China.

But always remember that China shares a land border with the Indian subcontinent, whereas the US is very far away.
So Chinese military can project much more military power onto the Indian subcontinent.
And the larger Chinese economy is also right next door.

I doubt any Indian successor states would actually end up in a permanent war situation.
It's just not worth it, and those successor states are all majority Hindu, so there won't be the current Muslim/Hindu divide in the Indian subcontinent

Anyway, an actual breakup of the core Hindu heartlands is a stretch.
 
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Inst

Captain
discspinner said:
I don't think China is about to invade India or Taiwan any time soon.

I think what China has done so far on the LAC is arguably, as much as it CAN do, as it has advanced its troops to the limit of the LAC as China perceives it at Depsang Bottleneck, Galwan, Pangong Lake, and Demchok, and presenting India with a fait accompli. The clash with deaths was a risk China took, and fortunately that has been contained as Modi and the top Indian leadership have backed down. Even if in the next few months an insubordinate junior commander in the Indian army opens fire, I still think the top leadership on both sides would immediately seek a way to cool tensions because India has made the correct assessment that this is a war with China that cannot be fought.

Now, true, I've been stating that the long term goal of India is for an independent Tibet. However, China can't simply launch a war of aggression to break India up. The best course for China in the long run is, of course, to remain wealthy, powerful, and united itself.
Click to expand...

If you cannot launch a successful attack and can fend off an attack yourself, what you can do is to spur an enemy attack yourself.

That seems to be the end-game when it comes to Ladakh; provoke the Indians enough, get the Indians to launch an attack, then interrupt their attack with superior firepower and savage Indian attacking forces.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
plawolf said:
Nothing is set in stone, and a lot will still depend on outside factors. But, if the COVID19 outbreak and internal racial tensions continue to deteriorate in the US, and if China ‘wins’ the COVID19 vaccine race, I think enough chips would fall in place to make a move on Taiwan viable.

If China has the world’s first and only viable COVID19 vaccine in mass production, with deliveries to the US and EU promised on the coming weeks; and suddenly an ‘unexpected incident’ sparks a shooting war across the straits that escalated with unprecedented rapidity, would the EU and the US give up on their covid19 vaccine deliveries for Taiwan? Especially as they are struggling to contain a second or even third wave, as seem all but inevitable given the rush to lift the lockdown now, while the outbreak is still far from contained?

As I said, I think China is keen to cool the boarder clash with India as soon as possible, as I have a feeling things might start getting very heated in the straits in the coming months.
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Remember that the US and Europe also have vaccines in development, which would only be a few months behind China at most.
And the US has already decided to go with herd immunity anyway,

So even in the scenario you posit, I don't see a Chinese move on Taiwan happening, because the odds are against a successful Taiwan invasion.

So why take the risk of failure now, when Chinese military spending will be a lot higher in 10 years time.

Yes, the youth in Taiwan will continue to drift away from China, but I think this should be manageable.

And at the end of the day, the legitimacy of the Chinese government still depends on delivering economic progress for the 40% of people who are still struggling.
 
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reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
If India was to break up into separate countries, then yes, I would agree some of them would find an alliance with the USA very attractive.
That inevitably forces their competitor(s) to turn to China.

But always remember that China shares a land border with the Indian subcontinent, whereas the US is very far away.
So Chinese military can project much more military power onto the Indian subcontinent.
And the larger Chinese economy is also right next door.

I doubt any Indian successor states would actually end up in a permanent war situation.
It's just not worth it, and those successor states are all majority Hindu, so there won't be the current Muslim/Hindu divide in the Indian subcontinent

Anyway, an actual breakup of the core Hindu heartlands is a stretch.
Click to expand...
Yes, logic says that is true. However, if you look at how Ukrainian revolution played out, logic had very little to do with it. The West was able to exploit the weak political class to push Ukraine to do things for the interest of the West, not the Ukrainians.

While China can handle such a situation, it is still in their best interest not to be distracted by such squabbles, at least not at this time.
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
discspinner said:
I don't think China is about to invade India or Taiwan any time soon.

I think what China has done so far on the LAC is arguably, as much as it CAN do, as it has advanced its troops to the limit of the LAC as China perceives it at Depsang Bottleneck, Galwan, Pangong Lake, and Demchok, and presenting India with a fait accompli. The clash with deaths was a risk China took, and fortunately that has been contained as Modi and the top Indian leadership have backed down. Even if in the next few months an insubordinate junior commander in the Indian army opens fire, I still think the top leadership on both sides would immediately seek a way to cool tensions because India has made the correct assessment that this is a war with China that cannot be fought.

Now, true, I've been stating that the long term goal of India is for an independent Tibet. However, China can't simply launch a war of aggression to break India up. The best course for China in the long run is, of course, to remain wealthy, powerful, and united itself.
Click to expand...

An independent Tibet is simply not going to happen.
There are only 3million people in Tibet, and they are well on the way to assimilation.

I would say that China should continue to use Kashmir and the Indian Northeast as leverage.

India will be a lot more careful if they know that China would enable their independence, if India joined an anti-China alliance like the Quad.
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
reservior dogs said:
Yes, logic says that is true. However, if you look at how Ukrainian revolution played out, logic had very little to do with it. The West was able to exploit the weak political class to push Ukraine to do things for the interest of the West, not the Ukrainians.

While China can handle such a situation, it is still in their best interest not to be distracted by such squabbles, at least not at this time.
Click to expand...

If we look at it objectively, Ukraine would be better off aligning with the European Union trade bloc rather than with the much smaller Russian trade bloc. There are so many more economic benefits available.

But the EU didn't realise this was unacceptable to the Russians, because it meant the extension of the EU/NATO almost to the core Russian heartlands. Russia would have become a resource appendage to the EU economy, which is some 10x larger. And Moscow would be a single battle (500km) from NATO forces in Ukraine.

Anyway, back on topic.
 
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