Kosovo's independence appears imminent

There has been a very significant action taken in terms of violence:

Kosovo's honeymoon as an independent state was rudely shattered yesterday when hundreds of Serbs converged on two border checkpoints separating Serbia from the newly free state and destroyed them with plastic explosives.

United Nations peacekeepers evacuated by helicopter the police officers manning the checkpoints, and the vandals then used a tractor to push the metal sheds that functioned as checkpoint buildings down a hill and into a river.

The checkpoints were at Jarnije and Banja, 20 kilometres north of the divided city of Mitrovica.

Serb authorities in the four districts implicitly endorsed the attacks, calling on Belgrade to "urgently take steps" to protect Serbia's territorial integrity – in other words, to take military action to prevent the writ of the newly independent state extending to Serb majority areas. The Serbian Kosovo minister, Slobodan Samardzic, said "today's action is in accordance with general government policies".

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Source:

Finn McCool said:

So now that Kosovo is independent, it seems inevitable that we will see some violence in the new nation. The distrust between Serbs and Albanians is simply too great. Whether or not it proves to be a more long-term situation or is nipped in the bud remains to be seen. Does anyone else find it likely that Russia will order (for lack of a better word) Abkhazia and South Ossetia to breakway from Georgia as retaliation?

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Don't know, but it's interesting that in Armenia a native of Karabakh has been elected President.

Apparently the Transdnejrp brake-away-republic of Moldovia declared that the international community will have to reconize them as they did to Kosovo.
No wonder that Moldovian government didn't recognized Kosovian independence....nor did Spain, with their own Baskue separatist proplems. Also, The russian stance to georgian brake-aways stays negative, as they know perfectly that such incident would make their own actions in Chechenia and other parts hippocrite and would propaply provocate other ethnic communities to seek separation.
This event is indeed very sad example of the sorth-sigtheness of western powers and it takes away even more of the curtain that they held atop their hegemonical motives. The issue is not about fundamental rigth of Kosovian Albanian's freedom, but to challenge Russia into hegemonical penis-figth. And west knows perfectly that Russia doesent have the courage to take this affair into serious level, not yet and It seems like the rising Russian prestige has taken most in the west out of guard and they now desperatly seek loose-points where ever they can snap the bear into its toes...
Dangerous times we live in...

As for the violence, I agree with Fu, but in this case the main issue is that Serbs, thougth minority in Kosovo see them selves as a normal citicens of bigger Serbian state and as part of its ethnical majority. Now, they are suddenly reaped out of that community, cut out of the cultural and national conscience and told that now you live in foreing nation, as a minority under rule by hostile majority.
It isent exactly a opposite sitution as it was for Albanians, as they have always lived as a minority under Serbian (and before that Ottomanian) rule. The situation that Serbs face is infact rather unique and I found it suprise, that its own special psycological implications and effects havent been covered much in the media...
...but then again, why would it be, it would then only show the short sighteness of western powers in their haste to give their final blow to Serbians, that have been unanomiously choosed to be the europeans surrogate empire-of-evil, before the Bear has properly woken up from its winter-sleep.
Anyway round, the conditions that Serbs in Kosovo face brings a new factor to their nationalism, desperation and that has never been recepy for peace and co-existance

I see this as an attempt to do more than irritate Russia but to eventually slam the door to her influence in Europe. A number of recent moves, including Free travel in the EU, seems to indicate that the powers that be want to integrate Serbia into the EU and possibly even NATO, probably to avoid a future scenario in which the Serbs consider SCO membership.

The problem for Europe will then have been how to get Serbia but keep the Albanian gangsters outside of their borders. Hence allowing UDI by Kosovo. This is not going to be recognised by the UN as both Russia and China will veto it. It may also harden hearts in Serbia against EU membership, but I suppose if it can fund another "coloured revolution" to get a compliant Serb Administration, they will may be able to swing it.

Otherwise yes, potentially a very dangerous move in the Internationally lethal Balkans.

Re: Kosovo is independent, now what

I'm worried that russia will not buy this and pulls off something dramatic before this is all over.

By '99 russia was so badly humiliated (and the last straw was kosovo war) that in the end Yeltsin was ousted in behind doors by security services and military complex and replaced by their own advocate Putin who would not humiliate russia again. I've read estimates that almost 80% of russian political decisionmakers are interconnected to security services, and the trend is spreading to business sector too (big firms hire FSB generals, medium ones hire captains and small ones hire lieutenants) just to make things run smooth in this securoratia. See excellent Moscow Times article for more info.

Now there are presidential elections coming up and Putin & co has played the nationalistic card pretty much in recent years. Imho they just can't afford to be seen as weak and impotent as Yeltsin was or they will get ousted like him.

Stratfor has a good article on what the Putin government could be up to, so I'll quote it directly:

If the United States and some European powers can create an independent Kosovo without regard to Russian wishes, Putin’s prestige in Russia and the psychological foundations of his grand strategy will suffer a huge blow. If Kosovo is granted independence outside the context of the United Nations, where Russia has veto power, he will be facing the same crisis Yeltsin did. If he repeats Yeltsin’s capitulation, he will face substantial consequences. Putin and the Russians repeatedly have warned that they wouldn’t accept independence for Kosovo, and that such an act would lead to an uncontrollable crisis. Thus far, the Western powers involved appear to have dismissed this. In our view, they shouldn’t. It is not so much what Putin wants as the consequences for Putin if he does not act. He cannot afford to acquiesce. He will create a crisis.

Putin has two levers. One is economic. The natural gas flowing to Europe, particularly to Germany, is critical for the Europeans. Putin has a large war chest saved from high energy prices. He can live without exports longer than the Germans can live without imports. It is assumed that he wouldn’t carry out this cutoff. This assumption does not take into account how important the Kosovo issue is to the Russians.

The second option is what we might call the “light military” option. Assume that Putin would send a battalion or two of troops by air to Belgrade, load them onto trucks and send them toward Pristina, claiming this as Russia’s right under agreements made in 1999. Assume a squadron of Russian aircraft would be sent to Belgrade as well. A Russian naval squadron, including the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, already is headed to the Mediterranean. Obviously, this is not a force that could impose anything on NATO. But would the Germans, for example, be prepared to open fire on these troops?

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Whole article , you should definately to read it out in full!

The scenario in that article seems to be fear-mongering to me; I doubt anyone other than the Albanians and nationalist Serbs would be willing to fight a war over Kosovo. This isn't the Cold War; the superpowers aren't so hateful, fearful and locked into their postions that they have to fight over instances like this anymore. It does put Putin in a no-win positon. If he does nothing he looks impotent, if he pushes he precipitates a conflict (probably not a military one) with the West that will get him nowhere and probably hurt him in the long run.

I must say that I sympathize with the Serbians. They have had a place that they consider an integral part of their nation ripped from them without any say in the matter by forces they cannot stop, in retribution for the sins of Milosevic and those that supported him.

It seems to me that Kosovo's independence was the result of inertia in the West. Kosovo was not high enough on anyone's priority list that an alternative to the unsatisfactory UN plans was put forward. The US and the EU simply put it out of their minds and let it happen.

I think Stratfor hits the nail on the head. Putin doesn't want to make all these threats and then not deliver on them. He knows Russia will be seen yet again as a dog barking like hell, but backing away the closer you get.

I think Russia may send troops into Serbia, but not to fight over anything. Their only purpose would to serve as a deterrent.

However, I think ultimately they're going to have to deliver on the threat to recognize a few republics. Some are saying they want to keep them as leverage, but I don't think they will. I don't think Georgia would be allowed to join NATO until the issue of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was resolved, they might, but it's unlikely, especially if a problem over them would mean war with Russia.

Vlad Plasmius said:

However, I think ultimately they're going to have to deliver on the threat to recognize a few republics. Some are saying they want to keep them as leverage, but I don't think they will. I don't think Georgia would be allowed to join NATO until the issue of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was resolved, they might, but it's unlikely, especially if a problem over them would mean war with Russia.

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All the more reason for Russia to recognize them then. Russia obviously wants to prevent NATO expansion of any kind, especially into the Caucasus. Recognition of the South Ossetian and Abkhazian governments would make it almost impossible for Georgia to get them back and by extension prevent NATO from accepting Georgia. Of course it would cause some inconsistencies in Russian policy vis-a-vis Chechnya and some other places, but that is tolerable, because Russia has the brute force to impose its will on Chechnya, Dagestan, etc.

Vlad Plasmius said:

I think Russia may send troops into Serbia, but not to fight over anything. Their only purpose would to serve as a deterrent.

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I tend to agree. However, if russian troops go into serbia that will probably cause the breakup of kosovo as serbs living in northern parts would definately be emboldened to secede. And NATO probably would not want to intervene because of the risk of russian-NATO confrontation. Kosovar albanians could ofcourse try to do something stupid in northern kosovo but without NATO clout they would be in deep doo-doo.

Actually in the long run the breakup of kosovo would probably be the best option as serbia could keep some of it's holiest places and serbian population. Kosovar albanians could have their ethnically pure state (ouch that sounds bad but it seems that currently without KFOR precence the serbs would be ethnically clensed) without serbs getting in their way.

Anyway, lotsa ifs, buts and coulds. In other words, I'm just trying to guess prossible outcomes. Hopefully there will be no blood spilled this time, the whole breakup of Yugoslavia has been a discrace to mankind.

A de facto partition of Kosovo appears to be underway. The Christian Science Monitor is reporting today that a convoy of Serbian Interior Ministry personnel (both current and former) have arrive in northern Kosovo and the UN and NATO troops that have rushed to the area have either been surrounded by Serbian mobs, or have retreated to safe distances whilst maintaining surveillance over events:

, by Robert Marquand, The Christian Science Monitor, February 21, 2008:

Well-organized Serb groups are allowing militant convoys from Serbia proper into Kosovo, torching United Nations-controlled entry points on the border, and beating up non-Serbs.

The Serb stronghold of Mitrovica has nearly become a no-go zone for outsiders – just days after the tiny state of Kosovo declared independence. A bridge over the Ibar River that runs through the city of Mitrovica, dividing Albanians from Serbs, may now become a larger symbol of East-West divides. Optimists feel that time and trade will change this.

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"The reality is that the north is lost to Kosovo, just as Kosovo is lost to Serbia," argues former US diplomat James Hooper, of the International Law and Public Policy Group. "US and European peace facilitators have treated northern Mitrovica and the area north of the Ibar River as a de facto part of Serbia since the NATO war ended in 1999, all the while piously proclaiming the need to maintain Kosovo's territorial integrity."

The patch of north Kosovo around Mitrovica has for years been de facto controlled by Serbs, who run a parallel structure of police and administration. Serb groups are planning to elect a parliament, they say.

The Kosovar Albanians resolutely deny this mineral-rich territory to Serbs. Western diplomats have told the Kosovar government "over and over," according to one Belgrade-based diplomat, that a nonviolent return of Mitrovica is unrealistic.

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More at the link.

Roughly two-thirds of Kosovo's Serb population has fled Kosovo since the 1999 Kosovo War, but a few hundred thousand remain, and the northern enclave based around Mitrovica isn't even the largest one - the Serbs enclaves in the east and south hold the majority of Kosovo's remaining Serb population. This is a disaster just waiting to happen.

The Kosovo troubles began in earnest back in the late 1980's, when the majority ethnic Albanians, many of them having fled Albania itself during the Communist years, in control of the regional Government starting engaging in formal and systematic discrimination against the native Serb population of Kosovo. Serbian nationalists, and especially Greater Serbia ideologues, fed off of this. In the wake of the earlier Balkan wars, the Serbian operations against the KLA in 1999 that sparked a mass Albanian refugee exodus with perhaps 10,000 suspected KLA members and supporters perishing in the Serb paramilitary onslaught, the Kosovo War broke out with NATO. The NATO-backed and trained KLA was able to move in and take over Kosovo after NATO, faced with the stark failure of its Aerial bombardment campaign, threatened to send in its own ground forces to fight the Yugoslav Army and the Serbian paramilitaries, especially the White Eagles. The Serbs backed down, and Kosovo was left to fester. Well, if Serbia is divisible, then so is Kosovo. NATO and the UN better not botch this one.

Norfolk said:

Well, if Serbia is divisible, then so is Kosovo. NATO and the UN better not botch this one.

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NATO botched this already. It was their core countries brilliant idea to push Kosovo independency regardless of the outcome. Now it's free for all great powers when there is a precedent how to ignore the existing frameworks. /RANT From RIA Novosti :

""I am convinced that the recognition of Kosovo sets a precedent. The system of international law that we have lived under for more than a century is being undermined," Sergei Ivanov said.
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Meanwhile, Chief of the Russian General Staff Gen. Yury Baluyevsky said on Tuesday that the proclamation of Kosovo independence "violates agreements reached in Yalta in 1945 and Helsinki in 1973 on the inviolability of borders".

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Even if these agreements weren't wholly respected, there was still somekind of framework that had to be taken into account at some point.

I'm getting more and more worried every time I look into this. First it was the CFE treaty (limiting the amount of conventional weapons in europe) that got nullified and now this: if you read between the lines russia is considering to ditch accords mentioned by Ivanov and Baluyevsky (russia inherited the signatory obligations from soviet union). Especially the is important as it binds the signatories to:

The participating States will refrain in their mutual relations, as well as in their international relations in general, from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State, or in any other manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations and with the present Declaration. No consideration may be invoked to serve to warrant resort to the threat or use of force in contravention of this principle.

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Guys, the Helsinki treaty was one of the most important agreements binding soviet union to limit it's cold-war aggression and domination of vassals in europe. That restraint could be thing of the past now. Smaller countries depend their security heavily on these as we just don't have enough resources to do it by arms alone.

UPDATE:

From , excellent reporting!

"The Kosovo situation shows us with complete clarity that the geopolitical interests of Russia and the West are in fundamental conflict," says Alexander Dugin, head of the International Eurasian Movement, an influential grouping of nationalist intellectuals, businessmen, and policymakers. "Russia should regard this as an opportunity to enlarge its own zone of influence," by recognizing statelets like Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Moreover, he adds, "this will be a signal for Russian minorities in eastern Ukraine and other places to organize for their own separation.... [Western behavior has shown us] that geopolitical interests now prevail. Any talk of morality is just a disguise."
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"We should embrace the same double standards that the West practices," he says. "Russia will crush separatism on its own territory even more drastically than before, while supporting pro-Russian separatists elsewhere. It will be easy to explain this to the Russian people. It's the end of so-called morality-based foreign policy; now only power decides."

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Pre WW2, anyone?