Kosovo's leaders said Monday they would embark on immediate talks on independence from Serbia and EU nations backed their cause as a UN deadline ended for a negotiated settlement.
"From today, Kosovo is starting intense consultations with its international partners with the aim of coordinating steps for declaring independence, and the official demands for recognising independence," said Skender Hyseni of the Kosovo Albanian negotiating team.
Several thousand Kosovo Albanian youths demonstrated in the provincial capital Pristina to press their leaders to follow through with promises for statehood -- which the ethnic Albanian majority has been pressing for since a brutal Serbian crackdown in 1999.
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The agreement in the EU seems almost unanimous:
'We are trying to organize a strong, cohesive, unified position (on Kosovo) within the EU. We still have more steps to make during the next weeks,' said Portuguese Foreign Minister Luis Amado, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the EU until December 31.
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While many in Kosovo want independence immediately the leadership has made remarks suggesting this will not be the case and several media outlets have instead suggested January 2008 for a time when Kosovo could be recognized. Disturbingly this would coincide with an apparent consideration by the Duma of recognition for Abkhazia and South Ossetia, possibly even Transnistria:
In addition there is a statement from Azerbaijan:
Azerbaijan is prepared to hold anti-terror operations against the placement of armed divisions of the Kurdish Worker Party (PKK) in Nagorno-Karabakh, Araz Azimov, the Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister and Azerbaijani President’s special representative for Nagorno-Karabakh, said in talks with journalists on 10 December.
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Of course, Turkey has recently been making a fuss about the PKK and Azerbaijan has traditionally had good ties with Turkey. While it could be taken this is in good faith towards Turkey, it is much more likely this is a cover for Azerbaijan to allow them to intervene against Nagorno-Karabakh, which they fear could declare independence given a Kosovo precedent. Even more disturbing is this exercise carried out months ago by the U.S. military:
When the Army was firming up plans for its force of the future, it needed to invade and occupy a country in its war games, to model how all the new tanks, robots, and fighting vehicles might perform. That country, oddly enough, was Azerbaijan.
Observers give different reasons for why Azerbaijan was picked for the simulated invasion. Some say the country's varied terrain provided an excellent testing ground for the Army's $200 billion "Future Combat Systems." Others believe that the U.S. "now faces a new reality embodied in the Caspian Sea scenario," centered in Azerbaijan. No one suggests that the country is in any imminent danger of American attack.
The Caspian Sea scenario is not about fighting in the Caspian Sea area, but is all about the next most dangerous situation U.S. forces are likely to face. In many ways, it follows the 1950-53 Korean War scenario. Country A (South Korea) is attacked by Country B (North Korea). The U.S. comes to the assistance of Country A. The thrust of the scenario is how does the U.S. enter the battle area and build-up sufficient forces to achieve its national goals. The scenario is further complicated by Country C (China), which threatens to enter the conflict, especially during the buildup phase when the U.S. is most vulnerable.
While the author suggests Country C is Iran, the pictures of the troop movements suggests this is not the case as one major push comes from the south and another from Georgia. Also, in one image there is a stated need for "hasty defense" and this position is taken near Nagorno-Karabakh:
This most likely suggest a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia and country C is Russia, who would almost assuredly threaten to intervene in the event of a conflict between the other two nations, especially if this was in the context of a broader conflict between Russia and nations such as Georgia and Moldova.
How Turkey would react to such strong support for Azerbaijan reacting against the PKK, even when their motives are clearly not to go after the PKK, but Karabakh depends on the U.S. If the U.S. supports Azerbaijan, but tells Turkey to restrain itself, it could create problem and bring further pressure on Erdogan's government from the opposition, military, and general population.
This could all also have consequence in Taiwan. They're set for a Legislative election in January and a presidential election in March. Kosovo getting independence and being recognized by the U.S. could inflame nationalist outrage leading to support for the DPP in both elections, which, if they should also get support for the U.N. referendum, could draw in China against Taiwan.
Any outcome in Kosovo is likely to be bad, however the reaction will most likely be far worse.
