Korean War finally is Over!

SampanViking

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
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A Peaqce Treaty on the Peninsular would have military consequencers for all forces in the Region, principally for the deployment levels of Beijing Military District.

Can I suggest a little time examining these areas rather then just speculating about Mr Kim.
 
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Bigfoot

Banned Idiot
What does this mean for ROK or DPRK defense spending? What about the 29,000 American troops in Korea? I highly doubt that North Korea will cut it's defense structure or spending and will most likely maintain their 1.2 million armed forces, but I don't know about the future of South Korea's military industry. Can someone help me out with this?:coffee:
 
sumdud

sumdud

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The ROK's military and mil-industry are very well. No worries there, except for maybe the underground tunnels of refugees.

As for China, I am not sure what the military would do. It is definitely not about to shoot IAs, and aid is not the Shenyang MR's job.

But in any unification case, in military terms, it will be a decade long logistical nightmare, best that change of weapons start before the 2 fully merge.
 
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Vlad Plasmius

Junior Member
A peace treaty inevitably means troop reductions. I'd expect a U.S. division in South Korea to be diverted away to some other theater, though it would probably be a gradual process over a few years.

I'd also expect China to move some of its troops. However, it would all be pretty gradual. I wouldn't expect us to see a very serious shift, but something that would probably end in a significant demilitarization over a decade.

South Korea may downsize their military to around 450,000 and North Korea to around 800,000, though that process may be longer than a decade, with the U.S. lowering it's presence to around 15,000.
 
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Bigfoot

Banned Idiot
Vlad Plasmius said:
A peace treaty inevitably means troop reductions. I'd expect a U.S. division in South Korea to be diverted away to some other theater, though it would probably be a gradual process over a few years.

I'd also expect China to move some of its troops. However, it would all be pretty gradual. I wouldn't expect us to see a very serious shift, but something that would probably end in a significant demilitarization over a decade.

South Korea may downsize their military to around 450,000 and North Korea to around 800,000, though that process may be longer than a decade, with the U.S. lowering it's presence to around 15,000.
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Wow wait a minute, why would North Korea downsize at all because Kim Joung Il's power rest in the military and because of their military first policy. I do know South Korea will downsize to around 500,000 but they will be more high tech but I can't see North Korea downsize at all.:confused:
 
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Pointblank

Senior Member
Bigfoot said:
Wow wait a minute, why would North Korea downsize at all because Kim Joung Il's power rest in the military and because of their military first policy. I do know South Korea will downsize to around 500,000 but they will be more high tech but I can't see North Korea downsize at all.:confused:
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South Korea's military spending is only a very small fraction of the country's GDP. So I don't think they will decrease spending, as the situation around there can be fairly tense, with disputes with China and Japan.
 
sumdud

sumdud

Senior Member
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I concur with Pointblank and Bigfoot on NK. NK is not about to decrease manpower any time soon, whether or not Kim is there, even so it is probably his generals who will succeed. (His son is not going to rule from Macao!)

Anyone think that China will put a base in Korea if everything between SK and China gets sorted out?
 
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Vlad Plasmius

Junior Member
North Korea's military is big but it's poorly armed and poorly trained. They'd probably try to modernize a little and they'd want to cut their forces to achieve that. Also some form of demilitarization would be needed for reunification.

It does depend on who takes over after Kim Jong-Il though. The military taking over would be the last thing anyone needs.
 
Finn McCool

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
Vlad Plasmius said:
North Korea's military is big but it's poorly armed and poorly trained. They'd probably try to modernize a little and they'd want to cut their forces to achieve that. Also some form of demilitarization would be needed for reunification.
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That would be true if the KPA's mission was to fight foreign nations. But in reality its not. Its main purpose is to protect the reigeme. It does that in three ways:
  • Acting as the "goon squad" by providing the guns and manpower to enforce the Dear Leader's will when push comes to shove.
  • By remaining large enough that it can act as an indoctrination tool for the entire society and can tie many North Korean's livelihoods directly to the reigeme.
  • And lastly, by deterring an American invasion. Massive, suicidal manpower (or at least the impression of it) and WMDs are the KPA's only tools here because they cannot hope to catch up with the US in terms of technology.

So really a downsize is not at all compatible with the KPA's main mission.
 
B

Bigfoot

Banned Idiot
Finn McCool said:
That would be true if the KPA's mission was to fight foreign nations. But in reality its not. Its main purpose is to protect the reigeme. It does that in three ways:
  • Acting as the "goon squad" by providing the guns and manpower to enforce the Dear Leader's will when push comes to shove.
  • By remaining large enough that it can act as an indoctrination tool for the entire society and can tie many North Korean's livelihoods directly to the reigeme.
  • And lastly, by deterring an American invasion. Massive, suicidal manpower (or at least the impression of it) and WMDs are the KPA's only tools here because they cannot hope to catch up with the US in terms of technology.

So really a downsize is not at all compatible with the KPA's main mission.
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True, and they will probably continue to maintain massive amounts of troops near the DMZ. The so called peace treaty is really just to end the 1950-1953 Korean War, a second Korean War can still start at any time.:coffee:
 
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