Korea 2013... War Game or political game changer?

Re: Korea 2013 War, Game or political game changer

plawolf said:

That is assuming the first act NK does is launch a nuke. In which case the US response would likely be delivered via SSBN launched Tridents and the B2s won't even need to lift off.

No point only preparing for extremes. Any action plan that involves B2s would likely assume that NK isn't totally suicidal and did not start any conflict with a nuke strike. More likely, it would be an accidental limited engagement, or a small scale provocation by NK like the island shelling a few years back. As soon as anything happens, I would expect B2s to be scrambled, which gives the US about 10 hours to figure out how serious the situation is and what their response would be.

The point is that having F22s nearby gives the US the option of ordering those B2s in to strike at high value targets day or night, even if NK's Air Force and air defences are still operational.

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In certain circumstances you still need a platform like the B2 with a bunch of bunker busters. Just like you need B-52s or other heavy ground pounders in others. Tomahawks or other cruise missiles are mainly effective only when you have a well establish static ground target like a building, airbase, basically the perverbial mudhut.

The B2 is also the only stealth platform capable of carrying things like the GBU-57A/B or some other extreme bunker busting ground penetrators when you need to make craters 50 ft deep into the Earth not to mention dozens of 500 - 2000 ibs bombs for carpet bombing campaign.

At any rate I don't live to far from Whiteman AFB (All USAF B2s are based there) .. Maybe I can drive there park my car by the woods, get me a lawn chair and bino and if I see a bunch of B2s take off in the middle of the night in the direction of Guam then I know it's serious!

If a B-2 drops this on your house, you know things just became very very serious.


Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) GBU-57A/B

getready said:

I thought these kind of threads are not allowed. Or maybe just Japanese related diaoyu islands ones are off limits?

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It's allowed.. as long as it does not get nasty. EVERTIME someone opens the Diaoyu islands or Spratly or China Vs any of it's Asian neighbors things get out of hand quickly. Now if real shooting ever starts in the places mention we shall allow a thread.

This thread will stand as long as the members post within the rules of this forum.

bd popeye super moderator

If we looked at the fine print of that treaty, I would be very surprised if there were no exclusion clauses whereby the treaty is rendered null and void if North Korea initiated hostilities.

I really don't think China would hand North Korea a blank cheque saying China would commit itself to fight for NK no matter what as that would just be asking for trouble.

If North Korea restarted the Korean War, China would need to go in or have American bases right at its boarder, to suggeste that China would just sit back and do nothing as America takes over NK or actually fight America for NK would be far more improbable than China taking over NK. Even from just a practicality standpoint, there is a very good chance Chubby Kim would order the use of nukes if it looked like America is about to beat him. Even if America doesn't glass the rest of NK, a single nuclear detonation anywhere on Korea is likely to lead to fallout spreading into highly densely populated areas in China's North East. Stopping the conflict from going nuclear would be everyone's number one top priority in the event the conflict flared up.

Reputation and perceptions pale in comparison when you are faced with possible massive fallout across large areas of your country populated by tens to hundreds of millions of your citizens.

If the PLA goes in, it will do so to take control of NK's nuclear arsenal and then as much of NK as they can reach that the Americans had not yet overrun. I am assuming dear leader is not going to like that and will order NK troops to stop the Chinese, in which case China would be fighting back in self defence. I think everyone can see that NK is a special case, and would not count it against China if China did turn on NK, because China would have no reason or need to go into NK at all if NK's leaders were not batshit crazy and hopelessly stupid to start a war they could never hope to win against America in the first place.

If NK troops don't fight the PLA, all the better as they just remove chubby Kim and march to the front lines and tell the Americans the threat has been removed and they can go home now. The Americans can take the win, or they can attack the PLA and start WWIII. It would be extremely unlikely that the Americans would choose to attack, and if the Chinese had the Russians standing alongside them when they meet the American advance, there would be no chance at all the Americans would try it on.

t_co said:

I'm not sure the Chinese intervention could be couched as 'betraying an ally'. More likely than not, the Chinese intervention would pursue regime change in NK, with the goal of switching over to a group of more reform-minded (and sane) generals - but would not be pursued against the North Korean nation per se.

I mean, North Korea is kind of like that drunk friend who's going around pissing on cop cars in a pub crawl. Sometimes you just have to knock him out cold and drag his ass back to his apartment so he can sober up.

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plawolf said:

If the PLA goes in, it will do so to take control of NK's nuclear arsenal and then as much of NK as they can reach that the Americans had not yet overrun. I am assuming dear leader is not going to like that and will order NK troops to stop the Chinese, in which case China would be fighting back in self defence. I think everyone can see that NK is a special case, and would not count it against China if China did turn on NK, because China would have no reason or need to go into NK at all if NK's leaders were not batshit crazy and hopelessly stupid to start a war they could never hope to win against America in the first place.

If NK troops don't fight the PLA, all the better as they just remove chubby Kim and march to the front lines and tell the Americans the threat has been removed and they can go home now. The Americans can take the win, or they can attack the PLA and start WWIII. It would be extremely unlikely that the Americans would choose to attack, and if the Chinese had the Russians standing alongside them when they meet the American advance, there would be no chance at all the Americans would try it on.

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I think that is wishful thinking. The NK army is quite loyal, and they will fight back, against China or anyone else, up until the point where they face inevitable defeat (just like any other army).

If China attacks NK, it doesn't matter how good of a reason there is, it will still be an act of betrayal and *will* be remembered by the rest of the world. They may cheer China in the immediate aftermath of the invasion, but give it a few years and they will start to think that if China can unilaterally tear up a mutual defense treaty, then it might tear up any other treaty that doesn't suit its purposes.

Therefore, there is no chance whatsoever that China is going to depose the Kim regime. Furthermore, the treaty obliges China to help NK if it is invaded. The reason doesn't matter, as NK will cry self-defense regardless. Sitting back and watching NK get invaded by the US is tantamount to rolling over for the US and the CCP will not survive the loss of face.

China knows this, the 2 Koreas know this, and the USA also know this. That's why all this sabre rattling is not going to end up in a war. Nations only go to war if they see a profit, and there is no profit to be had by any of the parties involved.

solarz said:

I think that is wishful thinking. The NK army is quite loyal, and they will fight back, against China or anyone else, up until the point where they face inevitable defeat (just like any other army).

If China attacks NK, it doesn't matter how good of a reason there is, it will still be an act of betrayal and *will* be remembered by the rest of the world. They may cheer China in the immediate aftermath of the invasion, but give it a few years and they will start to think that if China can unilaterally tear up a mutual defense treaty, then it might tear up any other treaty that doesn't suit its purposes.

Therefore, there is no chance whatsoever that China is going to depose the Kim regime. Furthermore, the treaty obliges China to help NK if it is invaded. The reason doesn't matter, as NK will cry self-defense regardless. Sitting back and watching NK get invaded by the US is tantamount to rolling over for the US and the CCP will not survive the loss of face.

China knows this, the 2 Koreas know this, and the USA also know this. That's why all this sabre rattling is not going to end up in a war. Nations only go to war if they see a profit, and there is no profit to be had by any of the parties involved.

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A lot of this also hinges on the circumstances surrounding the start of such a conflict. If the grandson of Kim Il Sung starts it, then I think China would probably pursue any option necessary to limit the possibility of US forces on its borders, up to and including regime change in NK. If the daughter of Park Chung Hee starts it, then China would probably honor the self-defense treaty and render aid (air support and naval support, but likely no ground troops unless things were truly desperate for NK).

solarz said:

I think that is wishful thinking. The NK army is quite loyal, and they will fight back, against China or anyone else, up until the point where they face inevitable defeat (just like any other army).

If China attacks NK, it doesn't matter how good of a reason there is, it will still be an act of betrayal and *will* be remembered by the rest of the world. They may cheer China in the immediate aftermath of the invasion, but give it a few years and they will start to think that if China can unilaterally tear up a mutual defense treaty, then it might tear up any other treaty that doesn't suit its purposes.

Therefore, there is no chance whatsoever that China is going to depose the Kim regime. Furthermore, the treaty obliges China to help NK if it is invaded. The reason doesn't matter, as NK will cry self-defense regardless. Sitting back and watching NK get invaded by the US is tantamount to rolling over for the US and the CCP will not survive the loss of face.

China knows this, the 2 Koreas know this, and the USA also know this. That's why all this sabre rattling is not going to end up in a war. Nations only go to war if they see a profit, and there is no profit to be had by any of the parties involved.

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So what? If NK does something incredibly stupid and forces the US to attack China will step in and fight the US on NK's behalf? What good is what others think of you if you are a bunch of glow in the dark bones sitting in a glass crater?

Uncertainty about what China might do might stay America's hand in peace time, but if the deed has been done and America is already committed to battle, it is another matter entirely.

The number one rule of the great game is that you need to be around to play it, so no nation is going to risk its own existence to prove a point. Once a nuclear power has committed itself to the field of battle, all the other nuclear powers are barred from that fight, at least directly. It is an unspoken, but time honoured rule because there is no guarantee that a war between nuclear powers will stay conventional.

No matter how badly you screwed up your diplomatic relations, you can always recover provided you are still around to continue to play the great game. That is why China won't fight America for NK and also why America won't fight China for Japan's claim to the Diaoyu Islands. All of the great powers have actually fought wars with each other in the past, but they all got over it and some are even best buds now.

The universal rule of international relations is not that countries always keep their word, but rather that there are no eternal friends and enemies, only interest is eternal. As such, if NK screws with China's interests by starting a war with America, would anyone be all that surprised if China ripped up its mutual defence treaty with NK on the grounds that their initiation of hostilities rendered the treaty null and void? It would be the same thing if a NATO member decided to unilaterally attack Russia.

plawolf said:

So what? If NK does something incredibly stupid and forces the US to attack China will step in and fight the US on NK's behalf?

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What is the point of discussing that possibility? I do not believe Kim Jong-Un is either stupid nor crazy.

Kim Jong-Un isn't crazy, but the current scenario has a Sarajevo feel to it. Hopefully, the Chinese will grab North Korea by the ear and make Kim and his General Staff tone things down, before events spin out of control.

bd popeye said:

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It's allowed.. as long as it does not get nasty. EVERTIME someone opens the Diaoyu islands or Spratly or China Vs any of it's Asian neighbors things get out of hand quickly. Now if real shooting ever starts in the places mention we shall allow a thread.

This thread will stand as long as the members post within the rules of this forum.

bd popeye super moderator

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Ah ok I see. I thought all threads remotely politically are automatically banned. My bad.
Thanks for clarifying, boss.

plawolf said:

So what? If NK does something incredibly stupid and forces the US to attack China will step in and fight the US on NK's behalf? What good is what others think of you if you are a bunch of glow in the dark bones sitting in a glass crater?

Uncertainty about what China might do might stay America's hand in peace time, but if the deed has been done and America is already committed to battle, it is another matter entirely.

The number one rule of the great game is that you need to be around to play it, so no nation is going to risk its own existence to prove a point. Once a nuclear power has committed itself to the field of battle, all the other nuclear powers are barred from that fight, at least directly. It is an unspoken, but time honoured rule because there is no guarantee that a war between nuclear powers will stay conventional.

No matter how badly you screwed up your diplomatic relations, you can always recover provided you are still around to continue to play the great game. That is why China won't fight America for NK and also why America won't fight China for Japan's claim to the Diaoyu Islands. All of the great powers have actually fought wars with each other in the past, but they all got over it and some are even best buds now.

The universal rule of international relations is not that countries always keep their word, but rather that there are no eternal friends and enemies, only interest is eternal. As such, if NK screws with China's interests by starting a war with America, would anyone be all that surprised if China ripped up its mutual defence treaty with NK on the grounds that their initiation of hostilities rendered the treaty null and void? It would be the same thing if a NATO member decided to unilaterally attack Russia.

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Three issues would still I think be sticking points for the US.
1 WMD the US would want to inspect occupied nuclear sites. China I think would best quell that with allowing such via the IAEA as well as possibly allowing joint inspections
2 humanitarian aid. The North Korea camps are would to be a massive drain on food drug and medical resources. The US as the Chinese themselves can testify is very dedicated to supplying aid. And having two powers doing so would be advantageus to all involved.
3 POWs MIAs the Korean war still has a number of missing US servicemen. The US is likely to try and find them or their fate.