Kim must have known his time as nearly up for a while, that was why he visited China so many times this year and pushed to groom his song with such indecent haste.
This would mean that the chances of a coup against the chubby heir is extremely slim, as Dear Departed Leader would have made damn sure the right people were in the right positions in the event of his death.
The fact that North Korea broke the news after only a couple of days would also suggest that things are firmly in control. If they were not, the regime would have kept the story firmly under wraps for much longer to tie up any possible loose ends before any public announcement. The fact that they took so little time means that everything was pretty much taken cared off for some time now.
This all means that Kim Jung Il would have put people he trusted in key positions, and such people would have benefited greatly from the current status quo, and been absolutely loyal to now departed Kim, so I seriously doubt chubby Kim could make any sweeping reforms even if he wanted to.
It may be years or decades before he has built up enough of a power base to able to really do whatever he wanted, if he gathers that much power at all.
So those of you hoping for a rapid change may well be disappointed.
The biggest question now is whether Chubbs really have any power, or is he just a fat puppet with someone else pulling his strings behind the scenes.
How long it takes him to make his first visit to China may give us some ideas. If he was just a figure head, changes are hims puppet masters would not want to risk allowing him somewhere where they cannot have total control over him.
It is in China's interest to maintain the tension. A reformed North Korea will very highly likely lead to reunification, probably spearheaded by the pan-american south. This is not what China wants.
Nonsense.
A weak and impoverished NK is far more likely to be swallowed up by a powerful South than a strong and rich North. The more powerful NK, the more bargaining power they will have over re-unification.
Hell, if NK was powerful enough and rich enough, they could be the ones pushing to swallow the South through peaceful reunification.
Also, the last thing China wants is for NK to be making trouble scaring markets, investors and giving Japan and America more excuses to expand their military presence in the region.
Why do you think China has been working so hard and spending so much effort trying to get the North Koreans to sit down at the negotiating table?
If China really wanted to racket up the tensions, they would not be doing any of that, or turning down North Korean requests for advanced weapons.