JF-17/FC-1 Fighter Aircraft thread

[aahyan]

Apologies if it comes too close to OT but this comment sparked my interest in the potential market for JF-17. I never thought about this so I gave it a shot and here's what came out:

I think what distorts the picture is the fact that we don't think how platform influences upgradeability and how marketing and PR influence perception.

1. J-7 can't fit better sensors because of its size but if it did we would see it in action more often and instead we only see upgradeable platforms
2. A-37 is used regularly throughout South America but we don't see it because they are not part of PR intended for current products

We also focus too much on JF-17 as air-to-air when it can serve as a strike aircraft with air-to-air capabilities. Air power is primarily for striking ground targets, air-to-air is for enabling it. That may be the potential for JF-17 in the future - a better Su-25 rather than a better J-7.

The aerospace industry is in a peculiar place right now as there are no cheap "proper multirole" aircraft already in production or entering production apart from:

1. CAC/PAC JF-17C Block III
2. HAL Tejas Mk1A
3. KAI FA50 Block2/PL

Tejas and FA50 use G404 which grounds the plane in case of shortage or embargo while JF-17C has potentially two engines: RD-93 and WS-13.

Western aircraft are too expensive. T-7 won't make it to the market. Turkey plans to replace F-16s with 5gen. Lack of outsourced F-16 production will maintain cost barrier. MiG-35 is not cheap enough. Russia faces: sanctions, shortage of funds, industry busy with war, loss of status affecting preference abroad. This opens up the market that would be problematic otherwise.

From IISS The Military Balance: nominally active (additional stored)

country	Su-30	Su-27	MiG-29	MiG-23	MiG-21	MiG-23BN	Su-22	Su-25	F-16	F-5	Mirage	A-37	J-7/F-7	JF-17
Angola	12	6		18	20	8	13	8
Ethiopia		11		8				3
Sudan			22					14
Kenya										21
Uganda	6
Tanzania													11
Mozambique					8
Namibia													6
Zambia													11
DR Congo								4
Nigeria													12	3
Tunisia										11
Syria			30	25	50	20	20
Venezuela	20								19
Cuba			5	16
Peru			19					4 (14)			12	15
Honduras										11		6
Salvador												14
Uruguay												12
Sri Lanka													5
Myanmar			32										21	16
Bangladesh			8										47
Turkmenistan			24					31
Uzbekistan		13 (11)	12 (18)				26	12
Mongolia			2
TOTAL = 764	38	30	154	67	78	28	59	76	19	43	12	47	113

If reductions due to technology occur then half of it is 388 aircraft and third is 258 aircraft. Only some of it can be replaced by J-10C or better for economic reasons.

Prospects:

• Most F-7 were delivered ~10 years ago at the latest which at 20-25 nominal years of service means replacement due around 2030-35 with JF-17 being natural
• MiG-29 are nearing their life, too late for MLU and Russia doesn't have good replacement. JF-17 is also natural plus RD-33 benefits Klimov
• MiG-23 and Su-22 will not be replaced by anything more expensive - JF-17 or nothing.
• F-5s and F-16A and Cheetah/Mirage are western equivalent of JF-17

Politics will be the deciding factor just like in cold war which is why my list is selective.

The market is there, but customer is not ready to order yet. Having used planes to facilitate faster transition is also good but PAF is not there yet.

An excellent piece.... well written article.

Political and economic influences are crucial to JF 17's success. Due to these factors JF17 has already been lost in Argentina, Malaysia, and Iraq, and more could happen soon.

 

[MarKoz81]

Political and economic influences are crucial to JF 17's success. Due to these factors JF17 has already been lost in Argentina, Malaysia, and Iraq, and more could happen soon.

The situation is a bit more complex than you suggest. None of the three countries were natural markets for JF-17. Politics doesn't fall from the sky. It's the result of internal forces caused by natural circumstances of any given country.

====

Iraq still functions as de facto US colony and struggles economically. Purchases of T-90S, Pantsir-S1 and Mi-28 that media (esp.Russian) covered were very limited. JF-17 was not an option for political reasons but primarily because it was impractical to enter into a political conflict with the US at this time because of internal problems which if absent would make JF-17 irrelevant just as it's the case with other oil states in the Gulf.

Malaysia didn't order JF-17 because it was not offered in the tender. Malaysian tender was for lead-in fighter trainer / light combat aircrat, not a multirole fighter and China offered L-15. Malaysia also required 50% of payment via barter and 30% of value to be procured locally which made it problematic in a tender for only 18 aircraft. Malaysia wanted the LIFT to also replace - as LCA - 12 Hawk 208 and 8 F/A-18D both delivered in 1990s. Hawk 208 is single-seat LCA with AN/APG-66. Malaysia chose FA50 because it was the objectively optimal choice - it's a LIFT/LCA with upgrade potential and the same weapons. Not to mention that Malaysia is a pro-western nation with tradition of procuring western systems and for geopolitical reasons would choose a western aircraft if it could afford it. It only bought Sukhoi because of US restrictions on certain systems and it bought a derivative of the MKI variant for flexibility. It bought Polish PT-91M tank instead of Russian T-90 etc. Malaysia leaned west and because of that JF-17 was not an option for practical reasons.

Argentina refused JF-17 due to economic factors. It is in a persistent long-term structural crisis and depends on financial aid. China is only 8% of exports ($6,16bn in 2021) and 22% of imports ($13,5bn) so buying JF-17 would both put a further strain on resources. Argentina has bad relations with UK but not with the US. Deal with China would change it. JF-17 wasn't an option for practical reasons, and most likely it was considered an attempt to get a better deal from other sources which explains the stalling which lasted a decade. If Argentina wanted Chinese jets it would ask for them.

None of these deals was ever going to materialise. The media made it seem otherwise but that's a problem with the media and the people who comment on military procurement. In each case both sides of the supposed deal understood the circumstance.

====

Compare that to what I would consider an upcoming natural market for JF-17: Angola.

Exp: China 44% ($21,9bn), India 10%, France 7,3%, Netherlands 6,8%, Spain 4,4%
Imp: China 16% ($2,86bn), Portugal 11%, Korea 9,3%, Netherlands 6,9%, India 6,1%

Angola exports to China 7,65 times what it imports.

12 Su-30s were bought in 2013 for $1bn as 18 Su-30K from Indian stock (delivered to IAF in 1997), modernized in Russia to Su-30SM and delivered to Angola in 2017-2019. That makes them outdated as they have Bars slotted array radar and can only be upgraded to Irbis-E P/ESA. Because the deal was agreed before 2014 the exchange rate of the ruble was ~30RBY/USD so after the sanctions the deal became twice as expensive for Russia and that likely limited the scale of modernization apart from reduction of order from 18 to 12 planes. Russia often cut corners on upgrades (see MiG-29 to Algeria) so e.g. the airframes may not be fully restored after 20 years etc. Russian planes earned a bad reputation e.g. in Malaysia because of quality of support - both for Su-30 and MiG-29 - and not the aircraft themselves. I don't expect this deal to be any different because for each Russian export success story like MKI there are several failures that few ever talk about.

The other aircraft are old Soviet types: MiG-23ML, MiG-21bis, Su-22, Su-25 maintained by cannibalisation of former fleets. MiG-23 were bought in Belarus and MiG-21bis in Poland. Together that's 3-4 squadrons of aircraft that will soon be in dire need of replacement because technically they're past their service life. Note that Angola has not chosen to seek a broader deal with Russia to do it. This means that Su-30 deal was a temporary convenience not a strategic decision because then they would not be diverted by fallout of 2014. Algeria wasn't.

Angola being a rapidly growing economy and country with energy exports will want to maintain the military potential which means retaining numbers. JF-17 is the optimal option militarily, economically and politically and if properly handled could cover all three "lost" bids mentioned above. 36 JF-17C would make Angola a regional power, stronger than South Africa, and that would stimulate arms race in neighbouring countries of which very few could afford other types of aircraft because of the cost of the entire package - support, weapons, training - involved. Enter the old Chinese art of ka-ching.

JF-17 vs JF-17 is not a problem. That's what Israel, Egypt and Jordan do with F-16s and US calls it "stabilization of the region".

That's the proper market. All it needs is a good salesman with a good offer. For the previous three you would need a miracle-maker.

====

Interestingly, I wrote the above yesterday but 10k limit made me edit it out. What goes around comes around?
That's it from me on this topic. Take care.
EOT

 

[aahyan]

Four JF-17 Thunder multirole fighter aircraft are equipped with a variety of weaponry, including IR-guided WVR and BVR air-to-air missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles, laser-guided bombs, and glide bomb PGMs, as well as targeting EO/IR pods.

 

[aahyan]

Turkish Aselpod and an indigenously made laser-guided bomb, the Al-Battar, are carried by a JF-17 Thunder.

This combination provides excellent precision strike capability against hardened targets i.e Bunkers and Shelters.

 

[by78]

Vortices.

 

[aahyan]

With its KLJ-7A AESA Radar, the JF-17C Block-III can Look First and Lock First against most aircraft of the Indian Air Force. Moreover, it will have first-shoot capabilities against enemies thanks to its integrated PL-15 BVR and built-in ECM!

 

[aahyan]

 

[aahyan]

Taxing for a training sortie, carrying practice missiles.

 

[Chavez]

Range 90nm for 5rcs target? Isnt kind of short?

 

[sequ]

Range 90nm for 5rcs target? Isnt kind of short?

For such a small radar, detecting a Mig-29K from 166km is not short LMAO