JF-17/FC-1 Fighter Aircraft thread

[Mt1701d]

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Relations seem fine to me. Read the security relations section.

Hmm... in that case don’t know. The interest from Myanmar was in 2015, most recent persecution through 2017 and Myanmar got the first jets late 2018 - 2019... maybe China did some close door negotiating in-between?

 

[The Observer]

Russia and China may have to work creatively on this. If Ukraine is a determined buyer, its


Russia is probably evaluating whether its better for Ukraine to buy its fighter jets from China/Pakistan or the West. Ultimately, Russia's endgame is still to prevent Ukraine from becoming a full member of EU/NATO, and a Ukraine which uses mostly western aircraft and has more integrated western military cooperation is the worse outcome. A sale to Ukraine may be possible if it receives certain "pre-clearance" from Russia. Keep in mind the JF-17 is an affordable and capable platform, but would not change the outcome of a full blown conflict as Russia and China still have other far superior fighters.

Providing pre-clearance/transparency to Russia would be akin to advanced notifications the US provides to Israel prior to sales of fighter jets to various Arab nations. Agree this sale should be lead by Pakistan though as it would be more material to develop their aviation industry, and at the same time reduce any profits/association of the deal with China to avoid embarrassment to the Russians.

I think I am repeating myself a little but I think it’s worth an examination in full.

I don’t think Russia will give too much of a Sh** for the following reasons:
1, JF 17 is an ok/good fighter for the money, but not state of the art. It is a match at best to older stuff the Russians would be fielding, except for maybe the AESA radar.
2, China will have all specs for the fighters, capabilities and limitations and most likely Russians will know it all, very thoroughly.
3, as the article describes Ukraine is cash strapped meaning that the likelihood of them doing major mods to the fighter is basically non existent, the military threat to Russia is minimal at best.
4, in terms of geopolitics Russia would want Ukraine being dependent on China than they would want Ukraine dependent and moving toward the West, tho at the moment Ukraine can’t afford it. If Ukraine buy Chinese, the West would be very wary of selling any hardware to Ukraine for fears of exposing their tech and possible reverse engineering. We should remember the aircraft carrier incident here too.

I think there is an argument to be had that Russia might even encourage China to sell the fighter to Ukraine, it would limit Ukraine’s military and political options at least until Ukraine’s economy is back on its feet, which let’s be honest here it would take a while.
During this time a Ukraine that is in China’s pocket would get no good will from the West and might in the long run bring it back into the sphere of influence of Russia, after China has extracted all that it wants.
Using your big brother, little brother analogy. The big brothers would be at the corner huddled up discussing, if an agreement is make, one big brother (Russia) will turn around, have a big smile with arms folded behind his back eyeing little brother (Ukraine), whilst the other big brother (China) will have a big smile walking to the little brother with shifty eye, both knowing that no matter what, the little brother have little options but to listen to them.

That... is an interesting argument. Damn, I'm actually swayed by that. However, I think there's a catch. Ukraine is dead broke, and currently, I doubt it has the money to buy western stuff. Buying this itty bitty fighter might not seem like much, but that gives them a cheap fighter to fly and something is better than nothing. Being cheap, they also won't cry rivers if one of it got shot down, other than for the pilot, I guess. Russia better treads carefully if it decided to give the 'pre-clearance' and hope it doesn't make the decision it will come to regret.

The crutch would be whether China will continue to support the engine if Russia decided that Kyiv's new jet is actually too annoying to ignore. If China wouldn't, they will lose credibility; that said, with China's arms sale track record, I'm pretty sure they'll keep their words.

On a side note, is there even a remote possibility of Ukraine modifying the plane to accept European/American engines? That would be absolutely interesting to watch.

 

[Mt1701d]

That... is an interesting argument. Damn, I'm actually swayed by that. However, I think there's a catch. Ukraine is dead broke, and currently, I doubt it has the money to buy western stuff. Buying this itty bitty fighter might not seem like much, but that gives them a cheap fighter to fly and something is better than nothing. Being cheap, they also won't cry rivers if one of it got shot down, other than for the pilot, I guess. Russia better treads carefully if it decided to give the 'pre-clearance' and hope it doesn't make the decision it will come to regret.

The crutch would be whether China will continue to support the engine if Russia decided that Kyiv's new jet is actually too annoying to ignore. If China wouldn't, they will lose credibility; that said, with China's arms sale track record, I'm pretty sure they'll keep their words.

On a side note, is there even a remote possibility of Ukraine modifying the plane to accept European/American engines? That would be absolutely interesting to watch.

I completely get where you are coming from, but even if Ukraine can’t afford western fighter, it will not leave itself vulnerable with nothing to to defend itself with. That’s gives the western powers especially Europe an incentive to do something, be it to give some hand me downs or something to improve relations and have an additional buffer state, in their pockets. The US would also be inclined to get something out of this situation, if not an actual strategic advantage, it can still annoy and pressure Russia out of spite.

If Ukraine buys the JF 17 fighters, it may be cheap but they would not be as careless, since they are not in a position to replace them indefinitely, again because they are strapped for cash, that’s why they in this position in the first place.
Plus as the engines side go, I doubt they will try for western engines, tho it would be really interesting to see, it’s more likely they will use their own and help their own economy instead, after all Ukraine does have their own jet engine production and it is also one of the reasons why China is so interested in Ukraine in the first place. Also the JF 17 was originally designed with Russian/Soviet engines.

The one major reason I think Russia would be apprehensive about this, is that the JF 17 sell might involve Ukraine jet engine expertise and offer an unprecedented chance for China to learn everything they might be missing regarding jet engine production from Ukraine first hand. If the sell does go through this will definitely be one of the conditions I think.

 

[j17wang]

I think I am repeating myself a little but I think it’s worth an examination in full.

I don’t think Russia will give too much of a Sh** for the following reasons:
1, JF 17 is an ok/good fighter for the money, but not state of the art. It is a match at best to older stuff the Russians would be fielding, except for maybe the AESA radar.
2, China will have all specs for the fighters, capabilities and limitations and most likely Russians will know it all, very thoroughly.
3, as the article describes Ukraine is cash strapped meaning that the likelihood of them doing major mods to the fighter is basically non existent, the military threat to Russia is minimal at best.
4, in terms of geopolitics Russia would want Ukraine being dependent on China than they would want Ukraine dependent and moving toward the West, tho at the moment Ukraine can’t afford it. If Ukraine buy Chinese, the West would be very wary of selling any hardware to Ukraine for fears of exposing their tech and possible reverse engineering. We should remember the aircraft carrier incident here too.

I think there is an argument to be had that Russia might even encourage China to sell the fighter to Ukraine, it would limit Ukraine’s military and political options at least until Ukraine’s economy is back on its feet, which let’s be honest here it would take a while.
During this time a Ukraine that is in China’s pocket would get no good will from the West and might in the long run bring it back into the sphere of influence of Russia, after China has extracted all that it wants.
Using your big brother, little brother analogy. The big brothers would be at the corner huddled up discussing, if an agreement is make, one big brother (Russia) will turn around, have a big smile with arms folded behind his back eyeing little brother (Ukraine), whilst the other big brother (China) will have a big smile walking to the little brother with shifty eye, both knowing that no matter what, the little brother have little options but to listen to them.

lol, looks like you and I came to the exact same conclusion but just posted within 10 minutes of each other. I think the realistic alternative is new-build J-17s or really old f-16 block A donated from european NATO stocks. Older f-16's are okay, but probably don't have enough remaining life in those air-frames.

 

[Deino]

Guys ... can we stay on topic, which is the JF-17 and not Sino-Russian and Ukrainian political sales consideration esp in mind that the source is a rather unreliable one!?

 

[shabi1]

Just curious, what's the political backlash that Myanmar's order might cause to Pakistan?

Also, yes China is investing in Ukrainian industries, but it's China buying stuff for its own use. Selling Ukraine stuff that it will use against Russia when Russia is one of China's biggest geopolitical ally is another matter. To be blunt, IMO in the big picture, Pakistan doesn't have as much sway as Russia, at least in terms of politics, so China can risk offending Pakistan on this one. I also don't think Myanmar is at war/is going to war with Pakistan, while Ukraine is practically in a war with Russia in everything but name. That changes the equation quite a bit.

In simple terms, China and Pakistan/Myanmar are like a big brother with two quarreling little brothers. The little ones might quarrel, but when the big brother decides something, they have to listen and accept it. China's relationship with Ukraine and Russia, on the other hand, is like two big brothers with a little brother. The little guy (Ukraine) is being bullied by one of the big guys (Russia), so it seeks help from another big guy (China). The problem is, those two big guys have a reasonably amicable relationship, so would China risk alienating a big guy for a little brother? I don't think so.

While Pakistan has decent relations with Myanmar. Its the political parties that rely on religious sentiments for voter bank and always on the look out for issues they could threaten the sitting government with unrest, usually they make some noise hold rallies and then settle down after getting some behind the scene compensations. There had been demonstrations and condemnation in Pakistan on genocide of Muslims in Myanmar. The sale of JF-17s to Myanmar isn't something much talked about in Pakistan.

 

[The Observer]

While Pakistan has decent relations with Myanmar. Its the political parties that rely on religious sentiments for voter bank and always on the look out for issues they could threaten the sitting government with unrest, usually they make some noise hold rallies and then settle down after getting some behind the scene compensations. There had been demonstrations and condemnation in Pakistan on genocide of Muslims in Myanmar. The sale of JF-17s to Myanmar isn't something much talked about in Pakistan.

Okay, thanks. Now... let's move on from politics before the mods start picking up their ban hammers... *scooting away*

 

[timepass]

JF-17 BLOCK 3 UPDATE:

???????

The Pakistan Air Force has selected the Russian Klimov RD-93MA engine for the JF-17 Block 3 aircraft instead of the Chinese WS-13 engine.
The RD-93MA is an improved version of the RD-93 currently being used by JF-17 Block 1 and 2 aircraft, which has been modified by Klimov to meet PAF requirements.

It is a more powerful, quieter, fuel-efficient, and smokeless version of the RD-93.

https://www.facebook.com/developingPak/photos/a.858002447660788/2841927572601589

 

[Deino]

JF-17 BLOCK 3 UPDATE:

???????

The Pakistan Air Force has selected the Russian Klimov RD-93MA engine for the JF-17 Block 3 aircraft instead of the Chinese WS-13 engine.
The RD-93MA is an improved version of the RD-93 currently being used by JF-17 Block 1 and 2 aircraft, which has been modified by Klimov to meet PAF requirements.

It is a more powerful, quieter, fuel-efficient, and smokeless version of the RD-93.

https://www.facebook.com/developingPak/photos/a.858002447660788/2841927572601589

Oh come on, once again a purely conjectural report from an obscure FB-site!???

 

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Possible integration work related to RA'AD-I