JF-17/FC-1 Fighter Aircraft thread

[taxiya]

Countries rich enough to afford JF-17s purchase other 4th gen fighters while others can't afford it. That's the conundrum China is facing.

That is true on two conditions:
1. JF-17 is around the same price (or just slightly cheaper) than the other 4th gen including weapon package and full life maintanence cost.
2. The others who can't afford JF17 are so poor that they can't afford any 4th gen at all.

The key to anwers whether the above two and your thought is a price comparison between JF-17 and other 4th. My knowledge tells me that there are not many in the same league, possible ones are Mig-29/35 and I think it is more expensive than JF-17 and heavier. All the others from US and Europe are way too expensive (double or tripple?) for JF-17's target customers.

I am not suggesting JF-17 will be a successful sale, but I am sure JF-17 is pretty good Perf/Price in that niche market and being the cheapest, countries in that market do not have much choice besides not having an airforce.

 

[Ultra]

Countries rich enough to afford JF-17s purchase other 4th gen fighters while others can't afford it. That's the conundrum China is facing.

Hopefully things will change with FC-31, where the novelty of a fifth gen airframe will attract rich customers like Saudi Arabia and Algeria.

That is true on two conditions:
1. JF-17 is around the same price (or just slightly cheaper) than the other 4th gen including weapon package and full life maintanence cost.
2. The others who can't afford JF17 are so poor that they can't afford any 4th gen at all.

The key to anwers whether the above two and your thought is a price comparison between JF-17 and other 4th. My knowledge tells me that there are not many in the same league, possible ones are Mig-29/35 and I think it is more expensive than JF-17 and heavier. All the others from US and Europe are way too expensive (double or tripple?) for JF-17's target customers.

I am not suggesting JF-17 will be a successful sale, but I am sure JF-17 is pretty good Perf/Price in that niche market and being the cheapest, countries in that market do not have much choice besides not having an airforce.

The problem is more to do with pool of customers and alliances - the countries that Pakistan (JF-17 is more of a Pakistan thing than China - it is the PAC that's pushing it hard for export) can safely sell JF-17 to are few. Ones that can afford it are even fewer.

Pakistan naturally wants to sell it to its traditional allies, which are mostly muslim countries. And those that are rich enough to be able to afford it usually opted for American or European because of "alliances" (Saudi for example, more american than european due to political alliances) and price range (if you are rich enough to buy Farrari and already got one and thinking of buying a second car, you won't be thinking of buying a Toyota Yaris).

A look at the past interested buyers :Algeria, Argentina, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Egypt, Iran, Lebanon, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, and Uruguay; half of them are just too poor to be able to afford it. and JF-17 is not cheap enough like the old Migs (J-5, J-6, J-7) that China sold heaps to the third world countries mostly in Africa.

I think JF-17 has to be price differently and target differently. It is for countries that has a sizable economy that just wants a cheaper alternative for their lower-tier fighters for their "Hi-Lo" mix. And most importantly, countries that are not aligned to or influenced by the US/European politics. I think Brazil and South Africa are two possible customers that Pakistan should aggressively targeting for.

South Africa for example, has only 26 Saab Gripen for ALL their combat squadrons - that's really low for a large country like South Africa. Brazil on the other hand has 47 AMX, 43 F-5, and 36 Gripen on order. Basically the JF-17 has to compete with the Gripen. I think price performance wise JF-17 is highly competitive.

Another thing I think that's limiting the sales is the political influences but that may change as China's Silk Road Initiative may open up more doors for Pakistan and China to export JF-17 to from traditionally Russian influenced east european and central asian countries as they become more accepting to Chinese products. Having say that though, JF-17 has to get its own indigenous engine for this to work or it will still get blocked by the Russians (because JF-17 still use Russian engines until WS-13 becomes operational) when it starts to compete with their lower tier fighters on the market.

 

[Hyperwarp]

From another Indian paper about the supposed JF-17 deal: -

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Sri Lanka drops plan to buy fighters from Pak after India objects
New Delhi has opposed SLAF plans to buy the J-17s on the ground that Sri Lanka does not need fighter aircraft.

So according to the Indians, the issues were:

* negative technical assessment of the aircraft
* SL has no requirement for such a fighter
* USD 35 million price tag per plane and overall USD 400 million for the whole deal

35 million per plane? YIKES!! I initially thought that included some weapons, spares and training but doesn't appear to be that case. So if this is true, as a Sri Lankan, I am really glad if this deal never happens. IMHO much better off buying A/C directly from PRC. Perhaps small number of advanced trainers such as JL-9 or better L-15. IIRC Zambia had bought 6 L-15 for USD 100 million.

 

[Hyperwarp]

I would consider an article in a SL paper citing an Indian paper no better than the Indian paper, to be noticed but not to be trusted, unless you have deep insight in the politics of the SL paper.

It is fair enough not to trust SL papers citing Indian news papers, but a

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

had inquired directly from the SLAF.

 

[Equation]

The problem is more to do with pool of customers and alliances - the countries that Pakistan (JF-17 is more of a Pakistan thing than China - it is the PAC that's pushing it hard for export) can safely sell JF-17 to are few. Ones that can afford it are even fewer.

Pakistan naturally wants to sell it to its traditional allies, which are mostly muslim countries. And those that are rich enough to be able to afford it usually opted for American or European because of "alliances" (Saudi for example, more american than european due to political alliances) and price range (if you are rich enough to buy Farrari and already got one and thinking of buying a second car, you won't be thinking of buying a Toyota Yaris).

A look at the past interested buyers :Algeria, Argentina, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Egypt, Iran, Lebanon, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, and Uruguay; half of them are just too poor to be able to afford it. and JF-17 is not cheap enough like the old Migs (J-5, J-6, J-7) that China sold heaps to the third world countries mostly in Africa.

I think JF-17 has to be price differently and target differently. It is for countries that has a sizable economy that just wants a cheaper alternative for their lower-tier fighters for their "Hi-Lo" mix. And most importantly, countries that are not aligned to or influenced by the US/European politics. I think Brazil and South Africa are two possible customers that Pakistan should aggressively targeting for.

South Africa for example, has only 26 Saab Gripen for ALL their combat squadrons - that's really low for a large country like South Africa. Brazil on the other hand has 47 AMX, 43 F-5, and 36 Gripen on order. Basically the JF-17 has to compete with the Gripen. I think price performance wise JF-17 is highly competitive.

Another thing I think that's limiting the sales is the political influences but that may change as China's Silk Road Initiative may open up more doors for Pakistan and China to export JF-17 to from traditionally Russian influenced east european and central asian countries as they become more accepting to Chinese products. Having say that though, JF-17 has to get its own indigenous engine for this to work or it will still get blocked by the Russians (because JF-17 still use Russian engines until WS-13 becomes operational) when it starts to compete with their lower tier fighters on the market.

Slow economic growth is hurting everyone around the world (except China and the US). Everybody can't afford to be choosy when it comes to defensive needs. Heck even Russia would love to see Pakistan and China sells their JF-17 planes to anybody so that their engines can get sells to whatever money they can get their hands on due to the economic sanctions that they're suffering.

 

[taxiya]

I think you are continuing and addressing my posts regarding "differeniating JF17 from other 4th Gen".

The problem is more to do with pool of customers and alliances - the countries that Pakistan (JF-17 is more of a Pakistan thing than China - it is the PAC that's pushing it hard for export) can safely sell JF-17 to are few. Ones that can afford it are even fewer.

Pakistan naturally wants to sell it to its traditional allies, which are mostly muslim countries. And those that are rich enough to be able to afford it usually opted for American or European because of "alliances" (Saudi for example, more american than european due to political alliances) and price range (if you are rich enough to buy Farrari and already got one and thinking of buying a second car, you won't be thinking of buying a Toyota Yaris).

Very true and that is also my point. But our difference begins when we try to apply this principle.

A look at the past interested buyers :Algeria, Argentina, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Egypt, Iran, Lebanon, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, and Uruguay; half of them are just too poor to be able to afford it. and JF-17 is not cheap enough like the old Migs (J-5, J-6, J-7) that China sold heaps to the third world countries mostly in Africa.

What is "it"? On this one we may disagree. I say may because I not sure of your meaning.

It seems to me that by "it" you mean 4th gen ingeneral including JF-17. But I see "it" is Rafale, Eurofighter, F16, F18 and Gripen, while JF-17 is 4th gen of a different (cheaper) price range. Therefor, in my words, I'd say "half of them are just too poor to be able to afford western 4th gen. and JF-17 is a cheaper (rather than not cheap enoug) alternative".

Yes, JF-17 is not as cheap as old Migs, but neither the other western 4th gen as cheap as their old counterparts in dollar terms, F-16 block 60 vs. F-16A/B? Because dollar has devaluated a lot since 1960s (close to halved?). One can not compare something from different context or time. Out of my head, F-16A/B was about 15 million (unit cost) compared to 18 million of F-16C/D, remember those prices are in dollar of their relevant years, C/D is much more than 18 million in dollars of A/B's years.
My thought is that, JF-17 has a very visible price difference to its western counterpart, which is the selling point.

South Africa for example, has only 26 Saab Gripen for ALL their combat squadrons - that's really low for a large country like South Africa. Brazil on the other hand has 47 AMX, 43 F-5, and 36 Gripen on order. Basically the JF-17 has to compete with the Gripen. I think price performance wise JF-17 is highly competitive.

You just agreed to my point that JF-17 is cheap enough to make a difference.

 

[taxiya]

From another Indian paper about the supposed JF-17 deal: -

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

So according to the Indians, the issues were:

* negative technical assessment of the aircraft
* SL has no requirement for such a fighter
* USD 35 million price tag per plane and overall USD 400 million for the whole deal

35 million per plane? YIKES!! I initially thought that included some weapons, spares and training but doesn't appear to be that case. So if this is true, as a Sri Lankan, I am really glad if this deal never happens. IMHO much better off buying A/C directly from PRC. Perhaps small number of advanced trainers such as JL-9 or better L-15. IIRC Zambia had bought 6 L-15 for USD 100 million.

I would stop reading news (for now) about these deals around JF-17 now, especially from Indian and probably Pakistan and even Sri Lankan. Their medias have highly politicalized the matter due to obvious reasons. And other medias including Jane's just recycle it.

 

[taxiya]

It is fair enough not to trust SL papers citing Indian news papers, but a

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

had inquired directly from the SLAF.

The "Daily Mirror"'s word is "1. there is an ongoing process of precurement, JF-17 is one being looked at, 2. SLA is not aware of a deal been signed".
The Indian news you mentioned said "deal dropped". For a deal to be dropped, it should be signed first. But the SLA don't know a deal exist. That just showed how trust worthy of this Indian news outlet.

Let's wait for the dust to settle.

 

[Zahid]

The mere fact that India is telling the Sri Lankan government to not buy JF-17 is the best reason why SLAF should get these warplanes. One look at India's Nepal policy should dissuade any Indian neighbor of any silly notions of a friendly India.

According to the Indian Newspaper article shared earlier, Indians have provided a negative technical assessment of JF-17. They have also pitched their own LCA instead. I do not think I could improve on this.

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

Car sales 101 in the U S is sell the customer what they want----and not what you want to sell them.

That is the problem attached to this aircraft. This aircraft was built to the needs and desires of paf---which did not need a two seater---even though it has two seaters in mirage and F7 frames---as well as the F16.

So---then basically--this aircraft is not built towards the needs of those countries that pakistan wants to sell to.

The second issue over here is also sales related---. It is a big no no to show and demonstrate a product that is not ready in the form that a customer wants to buy it----.

Because if the product does not sell---the sale goes STALE. Paf should never have presented this aircraft for sale. They should have only taken it for air shows and done the demo---and absolutely no mention of selling it.

You have to create excitement---you have to create a desire---you have to create a need---you have to let the buyer talk first---. The Bear needs to come searching for honey.

Paf are not car salesmen---they need to stay away from making sales pitches--they should only do what they are good at---and that is flying---. Fly and demo the product and just keep your mouth shut.