Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra
How will China know when it controls the Diaoyu Islands? How will China know when it's won the territorial dispute?
I can think of two ways Chinese control over the DYT is clear. One is that Japan and other countries acknowledge Chinese ownership and does not impede Chinese ships and citizens around the islands. The other is that China keeps its citizens on the island for an extended period of time without interruption.
I really cannot imagine scenario one occurring in the next 20 years. Other countries who don't have a stake in the dispute might recognize China's sovereignty, but among the nations that matter, namely the UN Security Council countries, Japan, and South Korea, it's not going to happen for a long time.
Why 20 years? What is the big rush?
Scenario two is more likely. It's how China has cemented its control over the Paracel Islands. Not even the most ultra-nationalist Vietnamese citizen proposes retaking the Paracel Islands after they lost it to China in 1974. Vietnam has limited its position to defending its control of the ~26 small islands and forts in the Spratly Islands. Vietnam still claims the Paracels but has in fact given up on them.
It would appear that you have touched upon a key point but have not realised it. The Diaoyu islands is not the only territorial dispute China has. In many other disputes, other nations are squatting on land China still claims.
If China pulled a 'we had people on this land for yonks so its ours' line, it is going to look mightly hypocritical when it rejects other countries ownership of land China claims on those exact same principle.
This is the most likely scenario for Japan. China asserts sovereignty and Japan begrudgingly acquiesces because they know it's not worth fighting over. If the Falklands had been completely unpopulated and undeveloped, there is a good chance they might've ignored Argentina's attack. But since it had thousands of British citizens, the government was obligated to launch and all-out effort to retake them. Since Japan has no citizens or buildings on the DYT, it would easier for the government to let them go.
I don't know what version of history you were reading, but mother British decision to go to war had very little to do with the handful of British citizens (less than 2000, so I am not sure where this 'thousands' claim comes from) who were never in any real danger from the Argentines, and everything to do with national pride and principles.
Had it been purely an economic, or numbers question, the British would never have fought, because of the massive cost of any war, and the massive risks involved. When the British decided to fight, there was every chance the war would costs the UK more soldiers' lives than there were citizens on the island.
The same principles come into play with the Diaoyu Islands. Both China and Japan care more about the islands because of their political value, and the principle of giving them up than merely the economic or even strategic value of the islands themselves.
You are also making huge, unreasonable leaps and ignoring critical practicality issues. Sure, if China had a civilian population living on the Diaoyu Islands, and had done for decades, that would massively strengthen China's claims because that would make those islands de facto Chinese.
However, you never presented any remotely realistic plan for how China might get those civilians onto the islands and keep them there for that amount of time without starting a war first.
It might also have been worth wondering why in the thousands of years since fishermen had known and used those islands, why no one had tried to live on them before. By all accounts, the Diaoyu Islands are uninhabitable, except to a few hardy sheep.
If China were to set up a civilian population on the islands, they would almost certainly need to be continuously supplied by boat of everything they would need. I also don't imagine the living conditions to be all that pleasant even then. Which is probably why the Japanese never tried to settle anyone on the islands even though they had control of them for so long.
Basically, in order for China to establish and support a token civilian population on the Diaoyu Island would require that China have effective control of the islands, as otherwise those civilians will simply die off without constant resupply. But if China had that level of control over the islands and surrounding waters/airspace, China would already have effective control and there would be little need for the civilians to be there in the first place.
If we play it from the opposite angle, would China give up its claim to the islands if some Japanese ultranationals pitch up some tents and built a wooden shack on the islands? Definitely not, so why would you expect the Japanese reaction to be any different if China did the squatting instead?
Also, following that scenario, if some Japanese ultras tried to colonise the Diaoyu Islands tomorrow, do you think the Chinese to just sit back and wait for them to plop some babies down? No, Chinese ships would likely cut off all supply routes to the island and starve them out. It would be even easier for the Japanese to do that to the Chinese if they tried it.
Some time in the future, China has to put some permanent buildings and citizens on the islands if it wants to convince the world that it deserves ownership. This could be a plan for 2016 or 2020, but eventually it has to be done. Otherwise territorial claims are just lines on the map and we all know how weak those are.
Why should China give a crap what the world thinks? All that matters is what the Chinese and Japanese governments say on the matter. Those countries not directly involved in territorial disputes have no say one way or the other about who owns what.
At the end of the day, the only thing that truly counts is who has the biggest stick to enforce their claims. That was how the Falklands was decided after all.
