J-XY/J-35 carrier-borne fighter thread

[Maikeru]

One thing people on this thread haven't considered is that a bigger constraint on payloads for naval fighters than a poverty ramp is bring-back capacity- i.e. the amount of weight the plane can safely land on deck with. This is why you see USN fighters launching on patrol over Irag/Afghanistan with comparatively light payloads. In the days of iron bombs these could simply be dumped in the sea if the plane needed to land in a hurry but that becomes a very expensive proposition with modern PGMs.

 

[Jason_]

But in terms of planning five years, ten years ahead, there isn't a reason to put any J-15 variant on a CATOBAR at all. Why bother producing 10 to 20 J-15Ts just for 5 years of service as a stopgap solution, when 003 will most likely have a full complement of J-35s before 2030 anyway? Even the hugely anticipated steam catapult, fully developed and ready, was abandoned at the last minute in favour of EMALS, and the PLAN put up with an entire year's delay for it.

Is it that unbelievable for the PLAN to accept another brief setback in terms of schedule in exchange for a huge increase in combat capacity? If the PLAN was content to wait an extra year to get electromagnetic catapults over steam, why wouldn't they consider waiting a year or two for a full complement of J-35s on 003, as opposed to having to accept a mixed airwing of two different fighters running entirely different components and SOPs?

Shilao and co already gave a clear answer for this, and it is: J-15 will continue to be produced and serve along side J-XY/35 on CATOBAR carriers, well into the 2030s. The reason is lower operational cost. This is identical to how the USN is pairing F/E/A-18 E/F with F-35C.

 

[Mirabo]

Shilao and co already gave a clear answer for this, and it is: J-15 will continue to be produced and serve along side J-XY/35 on CATOBAR carriers, well into the 2030s. The reason is lower operational cost. This is identical to how the USN is pairing F/E/A-18 E/F with F-35C.

I haven't seen that yet, thanks for clarifying. I stand corrected.

 

[plawolf]

Shilao and co already gave a clear answer for this, and it is: J-15 will continue to be produced and serve along side J-XY/35 on CATOBAR carriers, well into the 2030s. The reason is lower operational cost. This is identical to how the USN is pairing F/E/A-18 E/F with F-35C.

I would say the PLAN has far more reason to continue using J15s than the USN with the F18 because unlike the F35, the J35 is primarily designed for air combat over strike.

That means it’s internal AG payload capacity is going to be modest at best, meaning the PLAN will probably reply on the J15 for strike much more than the USN on the F18.

It makes no sense for the PLAN to ditch the J15 only to then need to hang ordinary externally on J35s for most strike missions, since a J35 with external stores will have practically no advantage to a J15 carrying the same strike package.

 

[Lime]

Don't forget 076, I'm very curious about which kind of aircraft will be used on 076. It will show the role of J35 in the whole fleet indirectly.

UAV can be used in 076, what about J35?

 

[siegecrossbow]

Don't forget 076, I'm very curious about which kind of aircraft will be used on 076. It will show the role of J35 in the whole fleet indirectly.

UAV can be used in 076, what about J35?

Unless there is a variant of J-35 with VTOL, I doubt it.

 

[plawolf]

Unless there is a variant of J-35 with VTOL, I doubt it.

Depends on the configuration I would say.

If they stick EMCATS and an angled deck on the 076, then the J35 probably would be able to operate off of it.

 

[Gloire_bb]

But in terms of planning five years, ten years ahead, there isn't a reason to put any J-15 variant on a CATOBAR at all. Why bother producing 10 to 20 J-15Ts just for 5 years of service as a stopgap solution, when 003 will most likely have a full complement of J-35s before 2030 anyway? Even the hugely anticipated steam catapult, fully developed and ready, was abandoned at the last minute in favour of EMALS, and the PLAN put up with an entire year's delay for it.

There is the simplest possible reason: J-35 isn't a straight-up upgrade from J-15T: there are going to be significant cons.
And for a carrier fighter, it's especially so.

Basically, full complement of J-35 is likely to be not only more expensive but also less capable than a mixed group.

 

[Richard Santos]

I suppose it was too much of an oversimplification. The intention of my last post was to hypothesize as to why the J-35 is being developed and prototyped at such a rapid pace. To me, it feels like an accelerated schedule, but for all we know, the schedule may not have been accelerated at all, and it's just improved OPSEC on the manufacturer's part that makes this sort of news seem more surprising than it should be.

My logic is just in going back to basics - the fundamental reasons why it's not sustainable to continue operating the J-15 in the long term. For one, it's a huge plane and takes up a lot of deck and hangar space. Transitioning to a medium fighter as opposed to a heavy fighter would allow a carrier to embark more aircraft and therefore have a higher degree of flexibility in operations.

Another thing is, as summarized by tphuang on Shilao's podcast on April 3, the J-15 has a "complex folding mechanism requiring both wing and stabilizer to be folded, not desirable for deck operation." So there are issues handling the aircraft itself on deck as well.

And at the most basic level, the J-35 is designed from the ground up to be a 5th generation fighter with all the bells and whistles, advanced sensors, datalink, internal weapons bay, and according to rumours, supercruise. There really is no good reason to not put this aircraft into production as soon as is practically possible.

You're correct that there's no evidence to suggest the PLAN won't adopt advanced J-15 variants in the future. And I agree that the J-15 is a suitable aircraft for 001 and 002, there is no reason to believe the STOBARs will see much change to their airwing.

But in terms of planning five years, ten years ahead, there isn't a reason to put any J-15 variant on a CATOBAR at all. Why bother producing 10 to 20 J-15Ts just for 5 years of service as a stopgap solution, when 003 will most likely have a full complement of J-35s before 2030 anyway? Even the hugely anticipated steam catapult, fully developed and ready, was abandoned at the last minute in favour of EMALS, and the PLAN put up with an entire year's delay for it.

Is it that unbelievable for the PLAN to accept another brief setback in terms of schedule in exchange for a huge increase in combat capacity? If the PLAN was content to wait an extra year to get electromagnetic catapults over steam, why wouldn't they consider waiting a year or two for a full complement of J-35s on 003, as opposed to having to accept a mixed airwing of two different fighters running entirely different components and SOPs?

Given what we've seen from the PLAN in the last 5 years, this sort of aggressive decision-making should almost be expected. Just my two cents. The biggest lesson we should learn from the catapult competition debacle is that, just because a project is developed and ready doesn't mean it will be adopted. After seeing multiple J-35 prototypes at this point in time, it is my belief that the J-15T will face the same fate as the steam catapult.

is the J-35 being developed at unusually fast pace?

The first recognizable prototype FC-31 flew in 2012, almost 10 years ago. the major airframe revisions on the way to the definitive production configuration appeared 7 and 9 years later. no initial operational status is expected to be achieved for several more years, possibly by 2025-2027 time frame, or 13-15 years after the earliest flyable prototype.

The X-35 concept prototype of the F-35 first flew in 2000. The airframe representing much of the definitive production configuration appeared only 5 years later. The initial operational status was achieved in 2015, or 15 years after the earliest flyable prototype.

Consider F-35 had a exceptionally torturous development cycle thanks to the demand for both a CTOL and a CTOVL versions, while the J-35 exhibit no hint being constrained to meet such, IMHO, i’ll judged compromises, It seems the J-35’s development is actually leisurely.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

is the J-35 being developed at unusually fast pace?

The first recognizable prototype FC-31 flew in 2012, almost 10 years ago. the major airframe revisions on the way to the definitive production configuration appeared 7 and 9 years later. no initial operational status is expected to be achieved for several more years, possibly by 2025-2027 time frame, or 13-15 years after the earliest flyable prototype.

The X-35 concept prototype of the F-35 first flew in 2000. The airframe representing much of the definitive production configuration appeared only 5 years later. The initial operational status was achieved in 2015, or 15 years after the earliest flyable prototype.

Consider F-35 had a exceptionally torturous development cycle thanks to the demand for both a CTOL and a CTOVL versions, while the J-35 exhibit no hint being constrained to meet such, IMHO, i’ll judged compromises, It seems the J-35’s development is actually leisurely.

I've heard talks about various improvements when it came to developing stuff (software, fabrication techniques etc.).

Not to mention PLA 'regularly' has gradual improvements on stuff (J-10, 10A, 10B, 10C) and you can also take a look at the big strides/quick improvements in naval units.

And while sure, a lot of the above is improvements on an existing platform, but the FC-31 flew in 2012, making gradual improvements/changes on it over time shouldn't be that hard.