J-35 carrier fighter (PLAN) thread

[overview]

Additionally, I want to add that it is very very optimistic (pie in the sky level of optimism, frankly) to expect that 003 could be sufficiently combat capable in 2024 to require a full airwing of combat aircraft.

Let's say 003 gets launched mid 2022 as some are rumouring. You will still require at least a year of fitting out. Let's say one year, as an optimistic number for the sake of discussion. Then you reach mid 2023, and 003 is ready for sea trials by the shipyard.
Going by past practice for CV-16 and CV-17, that will require at least one year again which again is a very optimistic number (time taken for CV-16 between first sea trial and commissioning was 1 year 1 month, for CV-17 it was 1 year and 8 months).

Then, you reach mid 2024, and carrier 003 will enter service in the PLAN.

But entering service with the navy doesn't mean you immediately are able to field a full airwing of combat aircraft. A whole list of other workup and exercises have to be undertaken first, the same way for any other new class of ship:
- Naval trials for key subsystems on the ship
- Training for the initial first generation crew and "writing the book" for operating the ship and operating and maintaining the subsystems
- Pilot familiarization and integration with the carrier's relevant flight related subsystems (in this case, the newest and most important subsystem being the catapults)
- Gradual workup of sophistication and complexity of the ship's subsystems and airwing

That entire process likely will take at least two years, if we are being super optimistic. Most likely, it will take even longer than that.

Chances are, it will be 2027 until the carrier 003 is ready to take on a full airwing and be actually have a crew, flight deck personnel, and at least one cohort of pilots, able to actually be able to effectively conduct operations with a full combat airwing.



Now, what does this mean for J-XY/35? Well of course for the PLAN it would still be beneficial to continue as reasonably quickly as they can with the testing, development, and production of the aircraft, because doing as much of that earlier means that they can de-risk the J-XY/35 earlier and enable smoother integration of J-XY/35 with the 003.
And needless to say, the earlier they have more J-XY/35 in production, the earlier they can start training pilots and the earlier they can be able to integrate J-XY/35 into 003's airwing.
Additionally, J-XY/35 might have the capability to operate off the STOBAR carriers (CV-16, CV-17) as well, which would actually prove to be a very useful capability for them as well, even if J-XY/35 may not be able to reliably takeoff with full MTOW under all circumstances. After all, a 5th generation fighter like J-XY/35 taking off with only maximum "internal" payload (full internal fuel, full weapons bay capacity) is still significantly lower than its overall full MTOW (which includes maximum external payload as well). If J-XY/35 is able to take off reliably from CV-16/17 with full internal fuel and a full internal weapons load, that would still be a very capable aircraft.

.... But all the above does not mean that we should expect 003 to be ready to "receive" a full complement of combat aircraft or full airwing, by 2024 or 2025.
003 would only be operationally ready to receive a full complement of aircraft by 2027 likely at the earliest, and even then its combat aircraft complement almost certainly will not be fully J-XY/35, but rather a split between J-XY/35 and J-15B.

Agreed.
Even if 003 had done quite a lot of fitting out jobs as expected, 2024 in service is still time urgent for a new CTOBAR carrier.
2027 may have a full complement of J-15B plus some J-35s.
J-15B will achieve IOC earlier due to enough pilots and experiences gained from J-15s on CV-16&17.
J-35 is brand new and without such human conditions.
It requires extra time for debugging and adaption. 2027 with IOC is a pretty good progress.

 

[gelgoog]

is the J-35 being developed at unusually fast pace?

The first recognizable prototype FC-31 flew in 2012, almost 10 years ago. the major airframe revisions on the way to the definitive production configuration appeared 7 and 9 years later. no initial operational status is expected to be achieved for several more years, possibly by 2025-2027 time frame, or 13-15 years after the earliest flyable prototype.

The X-35 concept prototype of the F-35 first flew in 2000. The airframe representing much of the definitive production configuration appeared only 5 years later. The initial operational status was achieved in 2015, or 15 years after the earliest flyable prototype.

Consider F-35 had a exceptionally torturous development cycle thanks to the demand for both a CTOL and a CTOVL versions, while the J-35 exhibit no hint being constrained to meet such, IMHO, i’ll judged compromises, It seems the J-35’s development is actually leisurely.

The F-35 still does not have the originally planned capabilities. Supposed to come with Block 4 which has been delayed. Again.
Even if you consider the Block 3F to be good enough that was many years after introduction into service.
I think the main reason for the J-XY delays were. Well it was not an official program. There was no government competition until way after the prototype flew. There was a competition for the navy, supposedly, but we never saw the alternative design. I think both programs are just so not comparable it makes no sense to look at things that way.

 

[aubzman]

Shilao and co already gave a clear answer for this, and it is: J-15 will continue to be produced and serve along side J-XY/35 on CATOBAR carriers, well into the 2030s. The reason is lower operational cost. This is identical to how the USN is pairing F/E/A-18 E/F with F-35C.

 

[SinoSoldier]

Agreed.
Even if 003 had done quite a lot of fitting out jobs as expected, 2024 in service is still time urgent for a new CTOBAR carrier.
2027 may have a full complement of J-15B plus some J-35s.
J-15B will achieve IOC earlier due to enough pilots and experiences gained from J-15s on CV-16&17.
J-35 is brand new and without such human conditions.
It requires extra time for debugging and adaption. 2027 with IOC is a pretty good progress.

Even if we put aside the risks and learning curve associated with integrating a new platform (J-35), the J-15B inherently retains some clear advantages:

• Greater payload
• Greater range (important for both CAP and strike missions)
• More powerful radar (owing to its larger radome). This, in addition to its greater range, means that the J-15B will be able to provide a much larger situational awareness bubble than could the J-35.
• Higher speed and superior overall kinematics

These advantages are more pronounced between the J-35 & J-15 than between the F-35 & F-18 due to the size difference between the J-35 and J-15.

 

[tphuang]

Depends on the configuration I would say.

If they stick EMCATS and an angled deck on the 076, then the J35 probably would be able to operate off of it.

First, I will say that it makes sense for them to have J-35 be able to operate off 076 with EMCAT. Just for operational flexibility.

But, there are many reasons you would not want to operate J-35 off Type 076 even if it can operate off there. On a LHD, the provisioning of fuel, missiles and general support are based on the requirement of amphibious fleet. Just think about how many engineers and how much storage is needed for maintaining the stealth layer of J-35. There is also the other issue of LHD flight deck simply not optimized for the flight operation you would want with J-35.

PLAN will be operating both LHD and carrier, so I think for any large missions that require real manned fixed wing aircraft, they will just bring along a carrier.

Even if we put aside the risks and learning curve associated with integrating a new platform (J-35), the J-15B inherently retains some clear advantages:

• Greater payload
• Greater range (important for both CAP and strike missions)
• More powerful radar (owing to its larger radome). This, in addition to its greater range, means that the J-15B will be able to provide a much larger situational awareness bubble than could the J-35.
• Higher speed and superior overall kinematics

These advantages are more pronounced between the J-35 & J-15 than between the F-35 & F-18 due to the size difference between the J-35 and J-15.

There is no way J-15B will have a larger situational awareness bubble than J-35. J-35 was designed from ground up with 5th generation situation awareness in mind. J-15B was not. If you listen to the recent Shilao podcast, you will hear there is a huge difference between the situation awareness of J-20 vs the 4th gen aircraft. J-35 would probably be more comparable to J-20 two seater.

The main reason you would want to keep have J-15s on deck is to do role you don't want J-35s to do like EW aircraft, buddy to buddy refueling, bomb truck.

Although even with J-35, you want to see what type of external missiles/pods you can integrate on there without drastically increasing its signature.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

J-35 would probably be more comparable to J-20 two seater.

Why would a J-35 have the situational awareness of a two seater J-20?

 

[tphuang]

Why would a J-35 have the situational awareness of a two seater J-20?

That was actually a bad statement by me without further explanation. Shilao podcast said J-20 two seater was half a generation ahead of J-20 single seater due to all the new technology available and the ability to redesign internal layout. They also said that a new J-20 single seater variant would have similar advantages (being able to redesign internal layout to accommodate new technologies), but still lack the additional multi-role capability offered by the second pilot. If we assume that the naval variant of J-35 started development at around the same time as J-20 two seater, then it should also have the advantage of having internal layout designed to accommodate China's latest electronic technology.

I was using that statement to show that J-35 show have much better situational awareness than a J-15B.

 

[plawolf]

First, I will say that it makes sense for them to have J-35 be able to operate off 076 with EMCAT. Just for operational flexibility.

But, there are many reasons you would not want to operate J-35 off Type 076 even if it can operate off there. On a LHD, the provisioning of fuel, missiles and general support are based on the requirement of amphibious fleet. Just think about how many engineers and how much storage is needed for maintaining the stealth layer of J-35. There is also the other issue of LHD flight deck simply not optimized for the flight operation you would want with J-35.

Valid points for why J35s won’t be operating off of 075s. But for 076, which is still on the drawing board, all of those issues and concerns could be easily addressed at the design stage.

Munitions and fuel storage and handling can all be provisioned for at design, much of which can easily be made modular so the necessary stuff can be carried depending on if they just want to do rotor wing ops or want to also factor in J35s.

I don’t really see any special need for accommodations for J35 ground crew. They literally can sleep in any bunk. Worst case you loose a squad or two of marines in exchange.

As for specialist stealth maintenance facilities and flight deck layout. Those will be much bigger commitments, but again, I think it’s worthwhile, especially if you look further down the horizon at stealthy strike drones. All the maintenance and flight deck investments needed for J35 operation would also be needed for stealth strike drone operation.

Being able to operating J35s, stealth drones and drone AWACS/tankers would, imo, be the primary justification for the 076 class. Otherwise, if the PLAN only intends to operating rotor wing, they could just buy more 075s.

PLAN will be operating both LHD and carrier, so I think for any large missions that require real manned fixed wing aircraft, they will just bring along a carrier.

Well, I’m not sure about that. There are a massive gulf in the mission spectrum between rotor wing only and full fleet carrier operations. Especially if the Taiwan question remains unresolved, as it is likely to remain so for some time to come.

How comfortable would the PLAN be to commit to deploying fully fledged fleet carriers to far away deployments knowing those carriers could be effectively stranded in the Indian Ocean should a shooting war break out while they are on deployment? Especially for lower priority and threat operations?

A 076 class that can deploy J35s, stealthy strike drones and AWACS would give the PLAN all the tools it needs for deterrence patrols, comprehensive fleet defence operations as well respectable air superiority and strike operational capabilities against 3rd tier opponents should the need arrives. All without needing to deploy full carriers far from home.

Having an 076 fleet could also be very useful to train up pilots and crews for future carrier ops as the PLAN spin up additional carriers without needing to take 001 or 002 out of the deployment pool for training missions. It would also be very useful to help pilots and crews gain operational experience from long duration patrols far from home, much like what the anti-piracy operations have been doing for the PLAN surface fleet. Only with the 076, they can simulate carrier ops without needing to send an actual carrier.

 

[Atomicfrog]

A 076 class that can deploy J35s, stealthy strike drones and AWACS would give the PLAN all the tools it needs for deterrence patrols, comprehensive fleet defence operations as well respectable air superiority and strike operational capabilities against 3rd tier opponents should the need arrives. All without needing to deploy full carriers far from home.

A 076 class that can deploy J35s, stealthy strike drones and AWACS would become just another type of full fledged carrier... You need reinforced landing arresting gear, bigger catapult, repair facilities, etc... you just turn it in a carrier. They are already building their new type of carrier, It's splitting apples...

I can see air-air UCAV around the corner and cannot see the need to carry other things than UAV and UCAV on 076 class. J35 will be way more well served in a full fledged carrier with 076 giving him wingman UCAV fleet to multiply effectiveness.

 

[overview]

No doubt that J35 will have many advanced features like situational awareness than J15B.
However, they are not competitors, they are teamates.
Just like F35+F18 of US Navy, and J20+J16 of PLAAF.
Both keep their own relatively backward model for dirrerent mission and complementary.

PLA must know well about how to play the effect of 1 plus 1 greater than 2.
The combination of J35+J15 will be invincible on the ocean in the future.