J-20... The New Generation Fighter

Re: New Generation Fighter

Bltizo said:

If that is true, then I must say it is good news... and potentially bad.

If China does show off it's 4th gen fighter in the next few years and Obama hasn't killed off the F-22 programme enough, then the PLAAF may have to contend with increased numbers of F-22s... D=
There was a recent article floating on the net in which an F-22 pilot from Middle East training said 5th gen fighters from China may prompt the US to re start the F-22... Sorry guys for restarting this part again, but if the F-22 does get into over 187 numbers then the PLAAF is pretty screwed.


70092, dude do you (or anyone else) happen to have any information about the engine nozzles on the J-XX/WS-15? I'm just thinking that if the nozzles are serrated, flat and have edge alignment like the F-22's, then it would mean the rest of the aircraft's details are probably quite good as well (and we all know detail must be paid attention to for stealth if western circles are to be believed).
(And also, a noob question - what exactly is a ground test? Is it the same as a static test like shaking an aircraft apart to see how long it lasts before it collapses?)

Please and thank you!

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Doesnt matter, from a manufactering capacity point of view, China now has full capability to has a healthy competion with US in the military industry sector, actually some arm race is good for China's current economy since the capacity is already there, what they lacks is the experiences in the high-end, and in a system such as China, the quickest way to gain experiences in high-end manufacturing is through some major projects in military industry or space industry sectors (Not to confusing with Soviet union, first the industry capacity of China now is several times more than Soviet at its peak time, and percentage-wise China spent far less in military sector comparing to Soviet Union (1/5 to 1/10 depend on sources), also China has a free market such that civil sector can benefit from the advancement of military research).

If it were not the space race which trained lots experienced scientists and engineers, the US would not have been lead the world in techs so much in the first place.

As for nozzle, I think all rumors suggest they will go some 360 degree vector nozzle like the Russia, that's first because it is easier to design such nozzle comparing the one installed on F-22, the second reason is they are better at dog-fight.

Re: New Generation Fighter

As for ground test:

Before maiden flight, the fighter will first do some simulating taking-off (power the fighter to the speed near taking-off speed and then stop the engines such that the fighter wont take off) tests to check if all sub-systems works properly.

The process itself can take weeks to as long as several months depend on the results of the test.

Re: New Generation Fighter

70092 said:

Doesnt matter, from a manufactering capacity point of view, China now has full capability to has a healthy competion with US in the military industry sector, actually some arm race is good for China's current economy since the capacity is already there, what they lacks is the experiences in the high-end, and in a system such as China, the quickest way to gain experiences in high-end manufacturing is through some major projects in military industry or space industry sectors (Not to confusing with Soviet union, first the industry capacity of China now is several times more than Soviet at its peak time, and percentage-wise China spent far less in military sector comparing to Soviet Union (1/5 to 1/10 depend on sources), also China has a free market such that civil sector can benefit from the advancement of military research).

If it were not the space race which trained lots experienced scientists and engineers, the US would not have been lead the world in techs so much in the first place.

As for nozzle, I think all rumors suggest they will go some 360 degree vector nozzle like the Russia, that's first because it is easier to design such nozzle comparing the one installed on F-22, the second reason is they are better at dog-fight.

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Actually we cannot just focus on the US. What about China's intermediate neighbours - South Korea, Japan, India and Russia. The arm race that we will be seeing is not just US but it will also come from the four nations.

South Korea and Japan are very experience with high tech equipments and they have the capability to build stealth fighters too like CHina. Russia might not be as strong as it is before, but the basis of her technology was still there and Russia could always join develope very advance equipment with India.

So as you can see, US is not the only country that poses a threat... in fact, I would say that although the threat is there, but it wouldn't be as great as China's intermediate neighbours.

Re: New Generation Fighter

rhino123 said:

Actually we cannot just focus on the US. What about China's intermediate neighbours - South Korea, Japan, India and Russia. The arm race that we will be seeing is not just US but it will also come from the four nations.

South Korea and Japan are very experience with high tech equipments and they have the capability to build stealth fighters too like CHina. Russia might not be as strong as it is before, but the basis of her technology was still there and Russia could always join develope very advance equipment with India.

So as you can see, US is not the only country that poses a threat... in fact, I would say that although the threat is there, but it wouldn't be as great as China's intermediate neighbours.

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These countries has much less capabilities comparing to the US, maybe one magitnude lower or even less.

For instance, Japan don't even have full scale wind tunnel as of now, let along Korea, who is basically nothing in this area.

If they are eager enough to have an arm race with China, so be it.

Re: New Generation Fighter

70092 said:

These countries has much less capabilities comparing to the US, maybe one magitnude lower or even less.

For instance, Japan don't even have full scale wind tunnel as of now, let along Korea, who is basically nothing in this area.

If they are eager enough to have an arm race with China, so be it.

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No. Although Japan and Korea didn't have the wind tunnel now... they could build it in a couple of years time... plus they are close allie of US... who is to say that US would not help them develope their own stealth weapons?

What about Russia? SHe is not actually as weak as she seemed... she had oil... she had technology base and she could always cooperate with India to design and build very good weapons.

Finally... I am not just worried about the top bass of China's military shooting their mouth off on a fourth generation plane... but this is an implication and a reason for others to take as an excuse to upgrade their weapons and also a reason for ballistic missiles umbrella to be built.

The main implication is that there will be a huge arm race that will occur in Asia... which will in the end ended like cold war. And finally we would see many nations in Asia that are normally denied of Nuclear Weapons building or had built nuclear weapon arsenal.

Re: New Generation Fighter

Korea and Japan have advance technology and they can built wind tunnels, but the problem of economy of scale may deter them from building stealth planes by themselves. Their will probably better off buying from USA F-35.

An military strong China will no doubt increase level of arms race in Asia, but China can not hold back as there are in its inventory too many old out-dated aircrafts that are obsolete by western standards. Current J-11 and J-10 will quickly becoming obsolete as well, if no new JXX are rolling out of production line within next one or two decade, PLAF will again be pariah airforce like they were before introduction of SU-27 and J-10.

Re: New Generation Fighter

Bltizo said:

If China does show off it's 4th gen fighter in the next few years and Obama hasn't killed off the F-22 programme enough, then the PLAAF may have to contend with increased numbers of F-22s... D=
There was a recent article floating on the net in which an F-22 pilot from Middle East training said 5th gen fighters from China may prompt the US to re start the F-22... Sorry guys for restarting this part again, but if the F-22 does get into over 187 numbers then the PLAAF is pretty screwed.

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Well, if the US wants to go bankrupted (if it isn't already) sooner than later, that is not entirely bad for China. But having said that, it is still better for China to publicize their new aircraft later rather than sooner, so that if there will indeed be an arm-race, China will be ahead.

Re: New Generation Fighter

I think we've talked about the potential implication of a new arms race a while back. I think we know that both the US, Japan and South Korea have strong economy and can potentially enter an arms race with China. However, the problem with South Korea and Japan is that they have reached their economic plateau. How long has Japan been in a economic slump? Do we think it can get out of it any time soon? China, however, is still growing and is nowhere near its potential peak (just think about the still-poor country-side). This means China can keep increasing its absolute defense budget (the actual amount of money) without changing the % GDP invested in defense. This means that China can continue expanding its military in a fast pace without having any damage to its economy. Can Japan or South Korea do the same? To match China's absolute money amount, they will have to increase their % GDP invested in defense. This will put them on the bad side. So a potential arms race is not necessarily a bad thing for China.

Many have the tendency to compare China with former Soviet. IMHO, this is not appropriate. The economic structure of China is completely different than that of the Soviet. Even at the height of Soviet's power, it was never considered to be an economic power. Its impact on global economy was largely ignored. And the competition between the West and the Soviet was almost purely military. This also was the reason that the US started the so-called "Star Wars" strategy. Washington knew the soviets could not compete with the West on economy. This, however, IS not the case with China. China became an economic power first. This establishes a solid foundation for China to enter any kind of competition with the West without having to worry about sharing the same fate as the Soviets.

Re: New Generation Fighter

rhino123 said:

No. Although Japan and Korea didn't have the wind tunnel now... they could build it in a couple of years time... plus they are close allie of US... who is to say that US would not help them develope their own stealth weapons?

What about Russia? SHe is not actually as weak as she seemed... she had oil... she had technology base and she could always cooperate with India to design and build very good weapons.

Finally... I am not just worried about the top bass of China's military shooting their mouth off on a fourth generation plane... but this is an implication and a reason for others to take as an excuse to upgrade their weapons and also a reason for ballistic missiles umbrella to be built.

The main implication is that there will be a huge arm race that will occur in Asia... which will in the end ended like cold war. And finally we would see many nations in Asia that are normally denied of Nuclear Weapons building or had built nuclear weapon arsenal.

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Saying they can build wind tunnel and then develop a 5th generation fighter in a few years is like saying Chinese can make the world best cars tommorrow.

As for all the opponents you mentioned, the combination of all of thems are still far less competive than the US along.

The US has very mature R&D system and it has a huge advantage of being open to the world talents, compete with them is like compete with the top minds around the world.

It is not like alot of country has the potential to take them one on one you know, but I think our country will be one of the few.

So I welcome these competitions, it will only creating more and more jobs and research opporunities in high end R&D and manufacturing sector in China such that more smart guys will want to do their PhDs and careers in these areas and eventually vastly improve China's overall tech standard.

At this stage, its the quickest way for a system like China who get the money and a vast number of educated mass with relatively little experiences to become highly industrialized.

Re: New Generation Fighter

you have to understand what arms race really is about.

racing of R&D of new weapons system isnt really an arms race, as a lot of those technology and even the manufacturing process would benefit other aspects of the economy.

its when you began manufacturing weapons at an excessive quantity which is putting strains on your economy, that's a typical arms race. when China revealst he 4th gen, the American reaction wont be building 1000 more F-22's, but building even better weapons to achieve technological superiority.

so if i were the chief of the Chinese intel, i wouldnt feel relieved just because the US limited the number of F-22 procurements, rather i'd be quite alarmed because now their route of development suddenly fell out of everyone's grasp, intentionally or unintentionally.