J-20... The New Generation Fighter

Re: New Generation Fighter

SampanViking said:

I seriously doubt if the next generation fighter project (or even Carrier Production) is a top priority for PLA strategists for two main reasons.

1) As mentioned by Crobato earlier, the downturn and budget constraints on all nations with cutting edge military's are going to be so severe for the forseeable future, that nobody is going to be spending huge sums on these aircraft.

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Unlike the F-22, the next generation Chinese aircraft will not be absurdly expensive. Of course it won't likely be as good as the F-22 either, but it will be a giant leap forward compared to Chnia's current aircraft, and it will be far more cost effective than F-22 and even F-35.

SampanViking said:

2) The PLAAF's main concern can only be replacing all the obsolete J7 and J8 variants remaining on its inventory with something more capable, but cheap and mass producible very quickly

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Why?

Re: New Generation Fighter

Londo Molari said:

Unlike the F-22, the next generation Chinese aircraft will not be absurdly expensive. Of course it won't likely be as good as the F-22 either, but it will be a giant leap forward compared to Chnia's current aircraft, and it will be far more cost effective than F-22 and even F-35.

Why?

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IMO I think the next gen of Chinese fighters would probably adopt a combination like what we're seeing with what the US has planned. Like small number of high performance aircraft and large numbers of less capable planes.

The only problem is that we don't know how many 5th gen projects China has going. Some speculate around 2..

Re: New Generation Fighter

what will be the final cost? F-22 cost more than $300 million plus per plane,assume the PLAAF Gen-5 fighter cost 1/3 price of F-22,it will be still far more expensive than said, SU-30mkk.

Re: New Generation Fighter

challenge said:

what will be the final cost? F-22 cost more than $300 million plus per plane,assume the PLAAF Gen-5 fighter cost 1/3 price of F-22,it will be still far more expensive than said, SU-30mkk.

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The costs for the F-22 includes development costs. The actual fly away cost is much lower.

Re: New Generation Fighter

Londo Molari said:

Of course it won't likely be as good as the F-22 either, but it will be a giant leap forward compared to Chnia's current aircraft, and it will be far more cost effective than F-22 and even F-35.

Why?

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In which area? If its about maneuverability, then J-10 and J-11 are just as good as the F-22 and F-35, if not better.

Re: New Generation Fighter

In which area? If its about maneuverability, then J-10 and J-11 are just as good as the F-22 and F-35, if not better.

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*cough* *cough*
Maybe slightly better than the F-35, but the F-22 is one of the most maneuverable birds around. No one knows how maneuverable the J-10 is, and no one really knows how maneuverable the F-35 or F-22 is either. We only have an idea of the upper limits of the Flanker series because the Russians have been pushing those planes to the limits at every air show they hold in their bid to win more export orders.

Re: New Generation Fighter

FriedRiceNSpice said:

*cough* *cough*
Maybe slightly better than the F-35, but the F-22 is one of the most maneuverable birds around. No one knows how maneuverable the J-10 is, and no one really knows how maneuverable the F-35 or F-22 is either. We only have an idea of the upper limits of the Flanker series because the Russians have been pushing those planes to the limits at every air show they hold in their bid to win more export orders.

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The F-35 doesn't have maneuverability as one of its strong point. The Radar, electronics and avionics are another story.

A F-16 is much more maneuverable than a F-35. Ofcourse, the F-22 is the king when it comes to maneuverability and thrust (sustained turn rates).

The flanker is also very maneuverable and it has been showing the same in various airshows. But the J-10 has only shown some tight turns, and a good near vertical acceleration but not much more than that. That's not to say it can't, but it hasn't appeared on many airshows demonstrating its ability, so until such a time its just anyone's guess.

Re: New Generation Fighter

Londo Molari said:

Unlike the F-22, the next generation Chinese aircraft will not be absurdly expensive. Of course it won't likely be as good as the F-22 either, but it will be a giant leap forward compared to Chnia's current aircraft, and it will be far more cost effective than F-22 and even F-35.

Why?

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Because many of these Airframes are themselves reaching the end of their normal life expectancy, which means that the cost of maintenance well be rocketing as parts wear out faster than the ground crews can shove in new or (more likely) cannabilised replacements, as I am sure the production lines will have closed years ago.

Even the J8 upgrades date back at least 15 years and upgrades will only go so far. Shoving 21st Century systems into a 1950's airframe is always going to be a hit and miss affair, with things stuck on whenever they can fit and maintenance access to these components often a nightmare.

Also think about the pilots moral. If they know that they are flying a winged coffin that is older and less capable than anything operated by any potential adversary, they are hardly going to be enchanted by the prospect of combat. If these planes are only going to make one way journeys, just convert them to UACV,s and let them role when needed.

These old planes are still a couple of thousand strong and so replacing them with a modern airframe must be the main priority. I really don't care if it is an existing model or something new, as long as it is up to the job, cheap to produce, short lead times, proven technology with easy and low cost maintenance and reliability and made in sufficient numbers to put the odds in favour of the PLAAF pilots. Modern and State of the Art does not have to Cutting Edge, and such planes are often better than the latest super plane for all the reasons stated above.

How much is a J10? $10 - $15 million a piece? same question for the J11 and FC-1.

Re: New Generation Fighter

SampanViking said:

Because many of these Airframes are themselves reaching the end of their normal life expectancy, which means that the cost of maintenance well be rocketing as parts wear out faster than the ground crews can shove in new or (more likely) cannabilised replacements, as I am sure the production lines will have closed years ago.

Even the J8 upgrades date back at least 15 years and upgrades will only go so far. Shoving 21st Century systems into a 1950's airframe is always going to be a hit and miss affair, with things stuck on whenever they can fit and maintenance access to these components often a nightmare.

Also think about the pilots moral. If they know that they are flying a winged coffin that is older and less capable than anything operated by any potential adversary, they are hardly going to be enchanted by the prospect of combat. If these planes are only going to make one way journeys, just convert them to UACV,s and let them role when needed.

These old planes are still a couple of thousand strong and so replacing them with a modern airframe must be the main priority. I really don't care if it is an existing model or something new, as long as it is up to the job, cheap to produce, short lead times, proven technology with easy and low cost maintenance and reliability and made in sufficient numbers to put the odds in favour of the PLAAF pilots. Modern and State of the Art does not have to Cutting Edge, and such planes are often better than the latest super plane for all the reasons stated above.

How much is a J10? $10 - $15 million a piece? same question for the J11 and FC-1.

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The difference is that China is still building J-8IIs, while the handful of remaining J-8Is are obviously going to be retired, but the J-8F is still in production (it only entered service in 2003) and J-8H upgrades and refurbishment of older J-8D (which are from the 80s) continues. The J-8II still represents one of the most potent aircraft of the PLANAF (which is kind of indicitve of the PLANAF's budget) I would also like to point out that that the given the role of the J-8II (high speed, long range interception) is less taxing on an airframe then pulling high G manoeuvre like conventional fighter aircraft. The pilots in J-8II also tend to be older, while pilots assigned to the J-10 and J-11 tend to be younger so generally as the aircraft seems retirement within the next decade or more, so will the pilots. Generally the highest priority for replacement are the remaining J-7C/D variants (the pre double delta winged J-7 variants). The J-7E and J-7G will most likely remain in service for quiet a while given that they are still not all that old (although domestic production of the J-7 has ended a few years ago). Generally for PLAAF aircraft, the technology would be considered 'outdated' but the airframes themselves are not that old.

If I'm worried about any aircraft replacement scheme right now, it would not be in China but the USA itself! The Air National Guards is in a terrible state with their fleet of heavily used F-16's and their few F-15s reaching the end of their airframe's service life and with no replacement on the horizon until 2015-2020 when the F-35 enters USAAF service long enough for their F-16s to be handed down to the national guard. This leaves an extremely dangerous situation for the Air National Guard as it leaves them extremely vulnerable, while parts may not be an issue, I expect a spate of deadly crashes of Ari National Guard aircraft in the coming years if no serious replacement plan is setup.

Re: New Generation Fighter

A F-16 is much more maneuverable than a F-35.

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That is unproven, I doubt the F-16 would be significantly more maneuverable than the F-35. Key figures such as rate of climb and turn radius remain classified. Maneuverability aside, he Pentagon has stated that in its analysis, the F-35 is shown to be at least 4 times more capable in air-to-air combat than any 4th generation aircraft currently in the US arsenal.

These old planes are still a couple of thousand strong and so replacing them with a modern airframe must be the main priority. I

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A couple thousand strong?? You mean including airframes held in reserve? There is only around 300-400 J-8s and around 500 J-7s in active service with the PLAAF. And maybe another 100 J-8s in the PLANAF.

The J-8II can still be a roleplayer in the PLAAF. Although you may not want the fighter in a head to head engagement against another fighter aircraft, they can still be potent systems for naval attack, interception of enemy bombers, attack aircraft, AWACS, and EW assets, and recon as well as EW/ECM. That is why you still have Mig-31 in service. These planes can carry big radars, BVR weapons, and happen to fly faster than the Flankers, J-10, and anything else in PLAAF service. The J-8 is really an interceptor/recon/strike aircraft rather than a true fighter.