J-20... The New Generation Fighter III

plawolf said:

Far too early for that.

Even going by the best estimate of 2017-18 for the IOC of the first squadron (a whole regiment by then seems a little too optimistic in my view), that is still 5-6 years away. A lot of those people might have been transfered/promoted to different positions/units by then, and some might have left the PLAAF


Also bare in mind that this is the first prototype. The pre-production and production models may have a lot of differences, especially if they use WS15s instead of whatever is powering the prototype. Thus starting training of pilots and ground crews now seem very pre-mature. These skills are highly specific and perishable.

Also, these guys are just there to watch, the test flights would be happening whether they are there or not, and bussing them over would not cost that much money or take that much effort to organize, so I don't really see why it would be such a big deal if they just brought a class of freshly qualified pilots from a training facility somewhere nearby to see the J20 take off and do a test flight before they are shipped off to their new regiments.

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I fully agree with you that they are not there to start training themselves for the plane, it's far too early for that, and that wasn't my meaning at all. But they are certainly air force, and I can't imagine a bunch of newly qualified pilots (or any other random group) getting to be that close to the prototype just for the heck of it.
So I think they're likely personnel from one of the first (or test) regiment's who are planned to get J-20 just observing a test flight. Maybe they were making a trip to chengdu and were offered a look, or maybe PLAAF sent them there exclusively to watch (for whatever motivation the high brass has -- morale, getting close first hand look, whatever). Imho out of any group in the air force who would observe a test flight like so, I would guess they would be some of the people expected to eventually operate them. That doesn't mean they've already started training, but it is something for the personnel to keep in the back of their mind, like "this is what we're working to in a couple of years".

Although you make a good point about transferring personnel between units and positions. But we don't know how PLAAF works either wrt switching units or allowing observers for test flights of new aircraft. The air force peeps could be anyone.

If it's GaN, then the radar can be expected to be fully competitive with F-22 and F-35 radars.

There's very little talk about Chinese GaN technology, however, and I wonder if the PAK-FA will have an advantage there.

Inst said:

If it's GaN, then the radar can be expected to be fully competitive with F-22 and F-35 radars.

There's very little talk about Chinese GaN technology, however, and I wonder if the PAK-FA will have an advantage there.

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Is there any suggestion it wouldn't be/have we heard that existing mass produced T/R modules aren't GaN based?

Now I believe the first regiment of J-20 will be operational in 2015

2012 : more and more intensive test flights + 2-3 more prototypes will be built with improvements
2013 : more test flight and 2 more prototypes built with further improvement, test flights will be much more intensive parallel
2014 : Highly intensive test flights and WS15A ready to be mass produced and final design of J-20A is approved
2015 : J-20 in production and will operational in the end of 2015

I know I know .. it would surprise everybody

Is china planning to induct the J-20 or is it for export only? Only asking as it seems the future is swarms of unmanned combat autonomous aerial vehicles.

ZELEGEND said:

Is china planning to induct the J-20 or is it for export only? Only asking as it seems the future is swarms of unmanned combat autonomous aerial vehicles.

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Can UAV do dogfight? I doubt so..

The Predator and Reaper fleet is infected with a worm they can't get rid of. So far it's doesn't seem to do anything but it just shows how UAV/UCAVs can be compromised.

ZELEGEND said:

Is china planning to induct the J-20 or is it for export only? Only asking as it seems the future is swarms of unmanned combat autonomous aerial vehicles.

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Is the F22 for export only?

We are decades away from AI or VI that could 'think' dynamically enough and be adaptable enough to have a chance against a manned fighter. That is assuming such advance AI/VI would even be allowed to be used on weapons.

People are very uneasy about letting machines, no matter how smart, decide whether or not to take a human life by themselves, and for very good reason.

AssassinsMace said:

The Predator and Reaper fleet is infected with a worm they can't get rid of. So far it's doesn't seem to do anything but it just shows how UAV/UCAVs can be compromised.

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Interesting, do you have a link or any more information on this worm?

This is one of the stories I saw about it.

plawolf said:

Is the F22 for export only?

We are decades away from AI or VI that could 'think' dynamically enough and be adaptable enough to have a chance against a manned fighter. That is assuming such advance AI/VI would even be allowed to be used on weapons.

People are very uneasy about letting machines, no matter how smart, decide whether or not to take a human life by themselves, and for very good reason.

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I think unmanned does not imply autonomous (actually USAF don't like the word unmanned and is trying to change it, because some planes like the predator is still manned from the ground). But the signal delay and jamming issues may be significant enough.