If we extrapolate those numbers (and assume 150 is sustained) the total inventory at the Start of each year would be
2023 220 (exact current numbers makes little difference with such high production)
2024 320
2025 480
2026 630
2027 780
2030 1230
I wouldn't make such far scale predictions with specific numbers just yet.
Too many unknowns including just how true our suspicions are, as well as whether all of the new factory space being built will be fully allocated to J-20 or split among other projects (high end UAVs, UCAVs for one).
Based on what I have heard from local source, there is still standing order of J-10S not finished and no confirmation on whether J-10C has been moved to Guizhou.
I find it hard to find a reason to explain the exponential growth in production rate seen in Zhuhai and I have been quite conservative on it tbh.
So, I have a working theory.
It's underpinned by three premises.
First premise, is that the J-20 production we've been seeing over the last few years has been mostly a result of this particular factory building, let's call it site "A":
That building was only structurally completed in like late 2015.
This is what it looked like in mid 2014:
And it looks to me like it was properly finished in late 2015 and settled in about early 2016 -- which is when serial J-20 production began (pic below from Feb 2016)
The second premise, is that J-10 production has fully been carried out at "older buildings" (i.e.: ones that existed in prior years).
I say this, because obviously CAC has had lots of factory space for J-10s prior to the new factory building was complete, and they were building serial J-10s since the mid 2000s continuously through various variants.
The third premise, is that J-10 production has been getting partially converted from J-10 to J-20 -- they are certainly still building J-10s, but perhaps of the number of J-10 lines they have running, over the last year one or more of those lines have been converted to J-20s, as they are in the process of shifting J-10 production to Guizhou.
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So, to put it altogether, here is an overall image:
So taking it altogether, between 2016 to now, my working theory is:
- the
factory building site A, finished in early 2016 has been intended for only J-20 production from the start, and has been steadily increasing J-20 production over the years from 2016 (note, they would've had to slowly add additional lines as they are essentially expanding production of an aircraft type that is much more complex than anything they've done before), and I think it's only over the last year or so that they may have gotten fully running at 100% capacity.
- over the last year, in other
older factory buildings used for J-10 production, some of their J-10 production has been converted to J-20 production, which partially accounts for why J-20 production over this year seems to be higher than previous years.
-
factory building site B (which was structurally complete mid this year) I personally suspect has yet to properly kick in with J-20 production but they might build some J-20 airframes in the current last quarter of the year (due to time needed to properly tool up), however site B may also contribute some construction
-
factory building site ?C (which is yet to be confirmed but looks like foundation work is being done on), may see structural completion by mid to late 2023, and after that time between mid 2023 to mid 2024 may start production as well.
IMO the biggest questions we face are:
- how much of site A and B will be used for J-20 production (most of us reasonably expect their full capacity will be used for J-20s)
- will site C definitely emerge and if it does, what will it be used for?
- how soon will J-10 production at CAC be shifted to Guizhou (if it will at all), and how much of that will be converted to J-20 production (if at all)
But IMO, either way we have lots of evidence to suggest that the overall factory has seen significant expansion and is likely to see further expansion in the future.
A greater rate of J-20 production and high end UAV/UCAV production capacity is likely to be the fruits of this work, but going into the late 2020s and early 2030s, I suspect much of this expanded production space will benefit an earlier ramp up of 6th gen fighter production as well relative to how long it took for J-20 production to scale up.
Edit: the other thing which can't be ignored, is what I will dub as
site D
That building is massive as well, and was only completed in mid 2021, however given its location I am not fully sure if it should be considered as factory space for actual final assembly of completed airframes given the distance it takes to the primary airfield and the rather complex road and navigation hazards on the way to the airfield.
In fact I'm not even sure if it's on the same property as the overall factory.
If it is part of CAC, it could be for producing subcomponents at scale before transport to the final factories?
