They may be mature TVC engines now BUT to incorporate them with J-20 requires a lot of work. The same amount of work to integrating WS-10 TVC. So given the limits of what you can choose, would the PLAAF choose to do the work integrating the more mature foreign engine or use that time and effort integrating the WS-10? Assuming they can only choose one due to limits on what you can realisitically afford to do, I'd wager PLAAF would go with the WS-10 which is now a mature engine but the TVC itself may be unproven. Su-35 capabilities with the TVC does not necessarily carry over. It's not like they can say hey look the Su-35 performs marvelously with TVC so the same TVC engine on a J-20 must allow the J-20 to do the same. Nope.
Therefore it's far more likely the PLAAF will choose the WS-10 TVC engine over a Russian one since the TVC component itself can be perfected and of the two engines themselves, the WS-10 has superior lifespan and MTBO.
I think we are all giving too much thinking to a Minnie Chan article here. There is at present nothing to indicate J-20s are being produced with TVC systems. What we do know is that the TVC system was tested on the J-20 system, but that is most likely preparation for the WS-15. I can't remember Minnie Chan being right about anything before so I think this theory should be put to rest.They may be mature TVC engines now BUT to incorporate them with J-20 requires a lot of work. The same amount of work to integrating WS-10 TVC. So given the limits of what you can choose, would the PLAAF choose to do the work integrating the more mature foreign engine or use that time and effort integrating the WS-10? Assuming they can only choose one due to limits on what you can realisitically afford to do, I'd wager PLAAF would go with the WS-10 which is now a mature engine but the TVC itself may be unproven. Su-35 capabilities with the TVC does not necessarily carry over. It's not like they can say hey look the Su-35 performs marvelously with TVC so the same TVC engine on a J-20 must allow the J-20 to do the same. Nope.
Therefore it's far more likely the PLAAF will choose the WS-10 TVC engine over a Russian one since the TVC component itself can be perfected and of the two engines themselves, the WS-10 has superior lifespan and MTBO.
So if Minnie Chan says the sky is blue in the clear of day, the sky is orange?Given the history of Minnie Chan being far more often wrong than she is right like 90-10, shouldn't we take the opposite of what she says to be the more likely truth?
As for the TVC, the Chinese are doing three dimensional, not two dimensional thrust vectoring (check out the Zhuhai 2018 show) ... but this will system will only appear on the real J-20B alongside the WS-15.
So far, the J-20 has been integrated with an AL-31 variant and a WS-10 variant. The Russian engines I propose are in the same family as the AL-31, so they should already have familiarity from having played with other AL-31 variants.
Since the WS-15 is late, doing more work but easier work is better than doing less work but harder work.
So if Minnie Chan says the sky is blue in the clear of day, the sky is orange?
According to Henri K, the PLAAF already decided in favor of the 3D design.I don’t think the J10B TWC testbed can give us any solid indications in terms of Chinese TVC plans for the J20.
If they go for a F35 style somewhat-stealth round nozzle design, it might allow for 3D TVC, but if they opt to go for F22 style full stealth (including IR suppression, which might be a key priority for the J20 when supercruising), 2D is more likely.
I think it is premature for us to make any conclusions because I think the PLAAF itself would probably need to see test results of the two types to make a final decision itself. In that respect, I fully expect to see both F22 and F35 nozzle versions of WS15s appearing on J20s in the future, perhaps even have a fly-off to determine the final winner, but I don’t think we will know for sure which way the PLAAF have gone until we see production versions.
Your entire point is that Minnie Chan is always wrong. My point is that Minnie Chan is unreliable, which is to say, she can say whatever she wants but that doesn't mean her claims are either true or false.This is irrelevant. We're talking about FCS integration with TVC. Do you even understand what a monumentally difficult task this is? It's not a matter of saying well WS-10 now works on J-20 so WS-10 TVC should only take a few months. Ditto AL engines.
LOL this is a huge strawman argument from you. Back to usual discussion methods is it?
Your entire point is that Minnie Chan is always wrong. My point is that Minnie Chan is unreliable, which is to say, she can say whatever she wants but that doesn't mean her claims are either true or false.
Remember, a stopped clock is right twice a day.
And as regarding the FCS, I'd imagine I have a notion of how difficult integration might be, so I'm suggesting that the Chinese might start with Russian engines because it reduces points of failure.