J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

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FangYuan

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If China produces 600 J-20s, the lifecycle cost (30-40 years) including: production, maintenance, fuel, logistics, spare parts, engineers and workers wages ... up to 2000-> 4000 billion USD.

If China makes 200-> 300 J-20s and their lifespan is about 30 years, China will save a lot of money. That money could be used to develop a 6th generation fighter jet or buy weapons from Russia with TOT.
1: Buy 200 Mi-26s with 90% TOT ($ 15-20 billion)
2: Buy 200 su-57 with 70% TOT (about 50 billion USD)
These are very small expenses but offer more benefits than maintaining a large number (600 units) of J-20 aircraft.
 
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Blitzo

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Inst said:
@Bltizo

One of the things that should be considered is the strategic need for fighter aircraft; i.e, does China have enough J-20s operational to offset American, South Korean, and Japanese F-35s? Likewise, when you consider how many J-20s are needed to offset the F-35s, the 480 maximum number is way too low.

However, a simple solution is that it won't be the J-20 offsetting F-35s; i.e, given that China is developing multiple 5th gen fighter types, as well as Chengdu expressing an interest in developing the J-20 into a family of fighters, might it be the case that your estimates are only correct for J-20A / J-20B / J-20 (with WS-15)? In the Russian case, the production of Su-27 was quite limited and the Su-27 was eventually superseded by Su-30s and Su-35s. In the Chinese case, the full 5th gen inventory might only contain 190-480 J-20s, or even 600 J-20s, but the J-20s might be supplemented by strike variants of the J-20, the J-31, or by JH-XX for the air superiority mission, just as the F-22, after it was cancelled, was supplemented by hordes of the F-35 and eventually the NGAD.
Click to expand...

What I described was specific for J-20 procurement, at the overall air force level and military level, the counters to regional opfor 5th gen fleets will of course involve other supplemental 5th gen and also 6th generation aircraft (the latter by the early 2030s) as well as other long ranged strike systems/OCA.


Plane for plane the PLA might never have the same fleet of 5th generation aircraft as the combined opfor air fleets in westpac, but it can be close enough and the difference made up by other multi-domain solutions.
 
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gelgoog

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Contrary to some people I think it is highly likely that China will purchase the Su-57 (likely once second stage version is available in 2022).
These would be purchased in small amounts similar to Su-35 purchase.

I think it is highly likely that China will manufacture J-20s on the higher numbers. Just look the number of J-11 and J-16 fighters.
I think they will produce at least 400-500 J-20 fighters until production ends.
If they make an enlarged bomber dedicated J-20 version then the numbers might get even higher.
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

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gelgoog said:
Contrary to some people I think it is highly likely that China will purchase the Su-57 (likely once second stage version is available in 2022).
These would be purchased in small amounts similar to Su-35 purchase.

I think it is highly likely that China will manufacture J-20s on the higher numbers. Just look the number of J-11 and J-16 fighters.
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Well, yeah the PLA has a quite a number of Flankers in service and are continuing to procure J-16s and will likely continue to do so until the mid 2020s.
If you're using using the scale of their Flanker procurement to infer what their J-20 procurement might look like I think you've just demonstrated the opposite of what you were suggesting.
 
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silentlurker

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How in the world would it ever take 6.6 billion to maintain a J-20 over 40 years?

"While the cost of an F-22 airframe is approximately $150, the cost of operating the fighter over a 40 year lifespan is approximately $550 - possibly much more as the jets age and maintenance costs rise further, giving a total cost of at least $700 million per fighter"
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You're suggesting the maintenance cost of J-20 will be 10x that of the F-22? God dude check your math...
 
Deino

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silentlurker said:
How in the world would it ever take 6.6 billion to maintain a J-20 over 40 years?

"While the cost of an F-22 airframe is approximately $150, the cost of operating the fighter over a 40 year lifespan is approximately $550 - possibly much more as the jets age and maintenance costs rise further, giving a total cost of at least $700 million per fighter"
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You're suggesting the maintenance cost of J-20 will be 10x that of the F-22? God dude check your math...
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Oh well ... please not
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:mad:
 
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silentlurker

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What's the issue with it? Is it not reliable? Anyways heres a quote from US Congressional Research Service for the cheaper F35 (couldn't find a F22 source)


The program office
currently estimates total life-cycle costs for operating, sustaining, and
maintaining JSF fleets at $764 billion, substantially higher than earlier
estimates.

In the article prior the JSF approved size is given at 2443, giving a lifecycle cost of $300 million...
 
siegecrossbow

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As DJ Khaled put it:

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Another one

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And another one

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No idea when these photos were taken but they were only released recently.
 
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