J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[00CuriousObserver]

An opinion from York. Maybe he's basing it on some info, but it is an opinion to consider nonetheless.

He thinks the prior for the total number of J-20s produced should be reconsidered and revised downwards, and that it might not surpass 1000 airframes. The reasoning is simple: 6th gens are on the horizon, and it would probably be more cost-effective to shift resources to 6th gens and UADFs.

 

[sequ]

An opinion from York. Maybe he's basing it on some info, but it is an opinion to consider nonetheless.

He thinks the prior for the total number of J-20s produced should be reconsidered and revised downwards, and that it might not surpass 1000 airframes. The reasoning is simple: 6th gens are on the horizon, and it would probably be more cost-effective to shift resources to 6th gens and UADFs.

Plausible, depends wholly on how well those UADFs perform.

 

[latenlazy]

An opinion from York. Maybe he's basing it on some info, but it is an opinion to consider nonetheless.

He thinks the prior for the total number of J-20s produced should be reconsidered and revised downwards, and that it might not surpass 1000 airframes. The reasoning is simple: 6th gens are on the horizon, and it would probably be more cost-effective to shift resources to 6th gens and UADFs.

At current pace we will likely get to 1000 airframes by 2030, and I don’t think we should expect 6th gen production to ramp up on a 1-2 year turnaround from LRIP, especially since the first few years of adoption will have to be spent on tactical development.

 

[Deino]

An opinion from York. Maybe he's basing it on some info, but it is an opinion to consider nonetheless.

He thinks the prior for the total number of J-20s produced should be reconsidered and revised downwards, and that it might not surpass 1000 airframes. The reasoning is simple: 6th gens are on the horizon, and it would probably be more cost-effective to shift resources to 6th gens and UADFs.

Whereby I find 1000 J-20 myself quite a decent number and personally never expected more.

 

[mack8]

Just a nice image.

 

[no_name]

1000 J-20 is probably more than enough just for China. There's also gonna be a large number of J-35s that would be on carrier out to sea.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

2x/3x J-20As with WS-10C2 engines. Posted by @欧阳振我86468 on Weibo.

Given how the J-20As with WS-15 engines have entered serial production late last year/earlier this year, it's kinda odd that we haven't seen any such J-20As in grey (in service) paint at this point.

 

[siegecrossbow]

2x/3x J-20As with WS-10C2 engines. Posted by @欧阳振我86468 on Weibo.

Given how the J-20As with WS-15 engines have entered serial production late last year/earlier this year, it's kinda odd that we haven't seen any such J-20As in grey (in service) paint at this point.

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Production birds need to be evaluated and tested before they enter service too, especially when they use new engines.

 

[Deino]

2x/3x J-20As with WS-10C2 engines. Posted by @欧阳振我86468 on Weibo.

Given how the J-20As with WS-15 engines have entered serial production late last year/earlier this year, it's kinda odd that we haven't seen any such J-20As in grey (in service) paint at this point.

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I‘m pretty sure the first unit is currently under formation and by late 2026 we will see them in numbers.

Any Info where these were seen?

By the way, per my Information, the Zhuhai airshow will be from 14 to 20. December

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

2x/3x J-20As with WS-10C2 engines. Posted by @欧阳振我86468 on Weibo.

Given how the J-20As with WS-15 engines have entered serial production late last year/earlier this year, it's kinda odd that we haven't seen any such J-20As in grey (in service) paint at this point.

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There are 4K crystal clear pictures of J-20As with WS-15s. They haven't been released because the people who took them aren't in a mood for tea.