J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

[Deino]

I'll also say I want China to import the Su-57 as a low complement to the J-20. If the J-20 is 110 million, the Su-57 is 50 million on the prototype and with the weak ruble, may become a cheaper, but heavier counter to the F-35. It would keep the Russian aviation industry up, and perhaps the Russians may be interested in buying J-20s as well.

Oh come on!! China will never purchase the Su-57 and I really don't see any hints why they should do ... in the same way I see no hints that there is or will be your often proclaimed tail-less J-20.

Once again: stay on topic

 

[Deino]

Guys ... no guesswork on the US 6th generation fighter's service entry & no what if discussion on "will the PLAAF intoduce the Su57".

 

[Blitzo]

At Blitzo, my point is that you have truer arguments talking about the effectiveness of interceptors in air superiority roles than that of the J-20's agility. Supersonic, I can see it, subsonic, I can't. You are relying on design docs which only indicate intent. The J-20 could very well have failed in subsonic agility goals, especially if there was major weight gain between prototype and production.

My argument was to refute the notion that J-20 was a dedicated interceptor fighter. I think I did that fairly convincingly.

The argument you are making is a different and more complex one -- essentially trying to say "how much" of an interceptor and "how much" of an air superiority fighter J-20 is, which is a much more complicated question because that means I'd have to compare it with multiple other similar aircraft which introduces further uncertainty and complexity.

 

[latenlazy]

Probably still in some level of evolution.

A better way to articulate the key point of contention is to ask whether the J-20’s aerodynamic design is a limiting factor to competitive subsonic maneuverability. Weight and engine power can be made variable to fit spec. It’s the aerodynamic design that pose the hard constraints.

 

[vesicles]

You have to remember, the ruble crashed 50% in the fallout of the Ukraine crisis. The Russians might be willing to sell the Su-57 at cost just for advertising purposes, but essentially, you have a heavy stealth aircraft that costs around a F-35.

Put another way, if the Russians were selling an F-22 equivalent for $20 million, it'd be foolhardy for the Chinese not to buy it, whatever the West might say about the success of the J-20 project. Given that the Su-57 is an import, the Chinese probably won't buy to the same quantities as they'd build the J-20, but it presents a highly affordable stealth fighter.

The J-20 and the Su-57 are both heavy stealth fighters. They carry out the same missions, are redundant to each other and do not complement each other. This alone would be a good reason not to buy the Su-57. Even the Chinese themselves would not develop another heavy stealthy fighter equivalent to the J-20. It's a complete waste of time and money. Keep in mind that the F-22 is the only heavy stealth fighter in the USAF.

Yes, a single unit of the J-20 might be more expensive than the SU-57, even though we have no solid evidence to support such claim. The cost of integrating the Su-57 into the Chinese system would also make this deal impossible to go through. At best, these two jets are the same and do the same things. Mission wise, mixing and matching the two would not bring any added benefit when compared with just making twice amount of one of them. However, mixing and matching the two would create a whole lot of issues that associate with attempting to integrate two very different systems. With every additional J-20 made, the PLAAF can immediately deploy them. On the other hand, they would need to spend years and countless $$$ integrating the Su-57 into their own existing systems, which is a nightmare in itself. And maintaining the integration in place will continuously cost them boat load of money in the years to come since they would need to keep training separate technicians for maintenance, separate software engineers for upgrading two different systems, different weapons/missiles systems, etc etc etc... A nightmare that they wouldn't be dealing with if they simply use their own planes.

The thing is, the Su-57 is almost ready to go. Developing a domestic low-end fighter would take time, which China doesn't have. And it'd be funny if future J-20Cs were LERX, Canard, LEVCON, Delta fighters, given the J-20's propensity to use every aerodynamic trick in the book.

China's J-20 has been ready for a few years and has been officially deployed with some significant numbers. If they need more stealth fighters, they can simply make more J-20's. The Su-57 is not an answer since, again, it is equivalent to the J-20 in their missions and design. It is a much better idea to make more J-20 than importing a completely different system, be it the Su-57 or something else.

If they need another type of stealth fighter to complement the J-20, they can develop their own like the J-31. Even if they decided to import another system, the F-35 makes more sense than the Su-57. Again, keep in mind that the Su-57 is equivalent to the J-20 in their missions...

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

China's J-20 has been ready for a few years and has been officially deployed with some significant numbers.

Wait wait. I might be a little behind the times here but last I checked there were maybe a bakers dozen J20 built but if you remove the very early birds. In terms of numbers built J20 might be a little ahead, if you remove the early SU57 built. Farther ahead but Neither is "Significant". At most you have a squadron of either type. They can say they have "Deployed them" sure. The Russians even had theirs in Syria. But not operationally. It's a demo stage.

 

[vesicles]

Wait wait. I might be a little behind the times here but last I checked there were maybe a bakers dozen J20 built but if you remove the very early birds. In terms of numbers built J20 might be a little ahead, if you remove the early SU57 built. Farther ahead but Neither is "Significant". At most you have a squadron of either type. They can say they have "Deployed them" sure. The Russians even had theirs in Syria. But not operationally. It's a demo stage.

To be honest, I don't know exactly how many J-20's they already have. Thats why I used some vague terms...

I was not trying to claim who has more stealthy fighters. I was simply pointing out that the J-20 is a ready system and they can make as many as they want, as opposed to some unpredictable new design.

 

[anzha]

Wait wait. I might be a little behind the times here but last I checked there were maybe a bakers dozen.

I am really, really tired, but IIRC, there was a 'deployment' according to Jane's in Tibet. Also, there was a report of 18 J-20's having been built through July of 2018. I thought they were referring to production variant, rather than the earlier development models. I could be wrong (have been before and will be again).

There was also a paper about estimating the RCS of stealth aircraft a couple (?) years ago by some Brazilian researchers. They used the fighter Deino is trying to steer everyone away from on this thread (*cough*Su-57*cough*), but they may have published the source code behind the simulation: if so, many one can cad up a model. That would apply for the J-20 as well.

 

[Blitzo]

Wait wait. I might be a little behind the times here but last I checked there were maybe a bakers dozen J20 built but if you remove the very early birds. In terms of numbers built J20 might be a little ahead, if you remove the early SU57 built. Farther ahead but Neither is "Significant". At most you have a squadron of either type. They can say they have "Deployed them" sure. The Russians even had theirs in Syria. But not operationally. It's a demo stage.

This is an important question.

We know that at least two units have J-20s; 7 unique serials have been IDed at Dingxin's 176th brigade, and 4 unique serials IDed from Cangzhou's 172nd brigade, making a total of 11 unique J-20s that form a floor for the number of J-20s in service.

The question is whether those 11 J-20s are all the J-20s in service or whether there are more. Personally, I believe that it is very very unlikely that we've been able to ID all of the J-20s in service as that would be virtually unprecedented for any new fighter type at this stage of its introduction. For example we've never had sight of every single J-10B or J-10C or J-16 either, even though we've only seen a few dozen serials of each type, but everyone accepts there are more aircraft than those which we've IDed that have been produced.


Going back to J-20, earlier this year it was stated that J-20 had begun to enter "combat service" alongside rumours that J-20s had been introduced to 9th brigade in Wuhu (a regular frontline unit different from the unique roles that 176 and 172 play at Dingxin and Cangzhou respectively). Based on the above information as well as what we can extrapolate as a realistic initial pace of production for J-20 since LRIP began in 2016, I would estimate as of late 2018 that there are probably 20 or more J-20s in service. I would consider that number to be reasonably significant.

 

[siegecrossbow]

To be honest, I don't know exactly how many J-20's they already have. Thats why I used some vague terms...

I was not trying to claim who has more stealthy fighters. I was simply pointing out that the J-20 is a ready system and they can make as many as they want, as opposed to some unpredictable new design.

There are at least 18 production model J-20s based on the manufacture serial number Deino found on one of the performing jets in Zhuhai. There are probably more.

Wait wait. I might be a little behind the times here but last I checked there were maybe a bakers dozen J20 built but if you remove the very early birds. In terms of numbers built J20 might be a little ahead, if you remove the early SU57 built. Farther ahead but Neither is "Significant". At most you have a squadron of either type. They can say they have "Deployed them" sure. The Russians even had theirs in Syria. But not operationally. It's a demo stage.

J-20s are officially in service and have started combat patrols. I think that counts as ready for service.