J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

[localizer]

Just have some economic questions:
How much do J20's cost? (I've seen figures from 40-120mil?)
Did China save a lot of money from reverse engineering/espionage? Are they still decades away from F35?
How hard is it to train a pilot for these stealth fighters?
100 J20s vs 10 F-22s ?

 

[canniBUS]

Just have some economic questions:
How much do J20's cost? (I've seen figures from 40-120mil?)
Did China save a lot of money from reverse engineering/espionage? Are they still decades away from F35?
How hard is it to train a pilot for these stealth fighters?
100 J20s vs 10 F-22s ?

Cost of J-20 is much lower than 40 million RMB, probably closer to 40K. Like you said most the the exterior stealth shaping of the aircraft is based on espionage gathered on F35 program. The internals of the J-20 are similar level to that of the Mig-19. This makes the aircraft very cheap to manufacture. It also makes pilot training easy since most Chinese pilots already have experience with flying the Mig-19/J-6. At the same time the internals being based on such old designs makes the J-20 performance not quite on par with F-35 though it does have excellent stealth characteristics due to both the shaping and the materials used. PLA watchers in China generally agree that the aircraft is made from a cardboard like material which does not reflect EM waves at all so the J-20 is one of the stealthiest fighters vs. radar. Another weakness though is the old WP-6 engines which are not as fuel efficient as turbofan engines. Generally speaking about 10000 J-20s should be able to match 10 F-22s.

 

[Biscuits]

Just have some economic questions:
How much do J20's cost? (I've seen figures from 40-120mil?)
Did China save a lot of money from reverse engineering/espionage? Are they still decades away from F35?
How hard is it to train a pilot for these stealth fighters?
100 J20s vs 10 F-22s ?

Impossible to say the exact cost. Anything from 120-200 mil seems reasonable based on the amount of jets made and the components on them.

I don’t understand how gathering intel on the F35 would save any costs. It’s kinda off topic from the J20 thread, but intel on the F35 gives the PLAAF a good idea of what they can expect from adversaries and let them devise counters even before the other plane is in service. You can’t put a price on that.

China’s doctrine is not conductive to VTOL fighters. I doubt any such design is in the pipelines.

100 J20s would absolutely shred 10 F22s, but the more likely scenario is 100 F22s vs 10 J20s. And that’s not a fight they can win by brute force. They’d have to rely on networked systems and hit and run tactics to win that.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

China’s doctrine is not conductive to VTOL fighters. I doubt any such design is in the pipelines.

F35 isn't just a VTOL machine.

100 J20s would absolutely shred 10 F22s, but the more likely scenario is 100 F22s vs 10 J20s. And that’s not a fight they can win by brute force. They’d have to rely on networked systems and hit and run tactics to win that.

The worry of the USAF indeed any fifth gen offensive air operations on this is not actually attacking the fighters, it's the support. Fifth gens network to try and extend their onboard radar cover and operate with less reliance on AEW, however they are still critical nodes.
Fuel is the life blood of the fighter force. The tankers are the Achilles tendon of fifth generation offensive Air Superiority.
I don't care what Airforce you are in right now your tankers and AEW are built off of some form of transport with a big radar signature.
And if you are on the offence you need those to direct and fuel the fifth gens and fourth gens. A ground based missile system like MEADS or S400 might not be able to see and target all the fighters across scope. But it can a tanker or AEW and can bullseye those birds at hundreds of miles.
If the tanker is down the fifth gens become like fruit flies. Buzzing around waiting to run out of life.

 

[AndrewS]

Impossible to say the exact cost. Anything from 120-200 mil seems reasonable based on the amount of jets made and the components on them.

I don’t understand how gathering intel on the F35 would save any costs. It’s kinda off topic from the J20 thread, but intel on the F35 gives the PLAAF a good idea of what they can expect from adversaries and let them devise counters even before the other plane is in service. You can’t put a price on that.

China’s doctrine is not conductive to VTOL fighters. I doubt any such design is in the pipelines.

100 J20s would absolutely shred 10 F22s, but the more likely scenario is 100 F22s vs 10 J20s. And that’s not a fight they can win by brute force. They’d have to rely on networked systems and hit and run tactics to win that.

I expect there to be at least 400 J-20s by 2030.

Given operating areas in the Western Pacific, the scenarios would be like 100 J-20 verses 20 F-22

 

[plawolf]

F35 isn't just a VTOL machine.

The worry of the USAF indeed any fifth gen offensive air operations on this is not actually attacking the fighters, it's the support. Fifth gens network to try and extend their onboard radar cover and operate with less reliance on AEW, however they are still critical nodes.
Fuel is the life blood of the fighter force. The tankers are the Achilles tendon of fifth generation offensive Air Superiority.
I don't care what Airforce you are in right now your tankers and AEW are built off of some form of transport with a big radar signature.
And if you are on the offence you need those to direct and fuel the fifth gens and fourth gens. A ground based missile system like MEADS or S400 might not be able to see and target all the fighters across scope. But it can a tanker or AEW and can bullseye those birds at hundreds of miles.
If the tanker is down the fifth gens become like fruit flies. Buzzing around waiting to run out of life.

I think it’s more accurate to say that’s a design choice of American 5th gens.

Both the Su57 and J20 looks and are reported to be able to carry a lot of fuel internally, which should translate into significant range.

Not enough for offensive ops from their home bases against American mainland targets, but then they were never designed for that.

But plenty of range for Europe and the Pacific/SCS.

 

[Biscuits]

I expect there to be at least 400 J-20s by 2030.

Given operating areas in the Western Pacific, the scenarios would be like 100 J-20 verses 20 F-22

Assuming US builds no new 5 gen until 2030.

I wouldn’t count on numerical parity anytime soon unless the budget is increased.

 

[Blitzo]

I expect there to be at least 400 J-20s by 2030.

Given operating areas in the Western Pacific, the scenarios would be like 100 J-20 verses 20 F-22

By that time a more appropriate numerical comparison holding qualitative fighters equivalent would see total deployable 5th gen vs total deployable 5th gen as the most relevant number.

The numbers of J-20s and F-22s fielded in such a scenario would be larger than what you described and would also naturally have to consider the number of deployable F-35s in theatre and whatever number of PLA medium weight 5th gen fighters are in service by then (likely a FC-31 derivative)

 

[Totoro]

Deino swooping down on this discussion in 3, 2, 1...
But before that happens, let me just say that any sort of number predictions are mostly futile. Not only do we not know the plans for J20 procurement over the next 5 to 10 years, at which pace would those planes be put into service, but it's impossible to predict what kind of allies might US have, which bases it might have access to, and thus how many US 5th gen fighters might get fielded. So we can't really carefully consider their number, we can only guess. Saying 20 J20s are added per year, to a total of some 260 in 2030 is a guess. Same with 400 J20. One of many possible guesses. Saying there'd be 500 F22/f35 fielded would also be just a guess. Certainly, there'd be something like 1500 f22/f35 by then in US inventory. Whether they'd have enough bases to place a third or two third of that number is another thing.

Then one could also talk about just how much do those deployed figures matter? So maybe US indeed will be limited to 1000 fighters at once. As it loses planes, possibly at a not-so-favorable loss ratio as the opponent may have more, further 5th gen fighters might take their place. While the opponent lacks not only 5th gen fighters to replace them but possibly also has an ever dwindling number of overall planes left. Say, the conflict starts off with 2000 chinese vs 1000 us planes. US loses 500, china loses 500. But China is left with 1500, while US replenishes their bases and is again at 1000. Rinse and repeat. Until China is down to 500, while US is at 1000 deployed and another 500-1000 in store. This is a gross simplification, but it illustrates the point.

 

[Blitzo]

Deino swooping down on this discussion in 3, 2, 1...
But before that happens, let me just say that any sort of number predictions are mostly futile. Not only do we not know the plans for J20 procurement over the next 5 to 10 years, at which pace would those planes be put into service, but it's impossible to predict what kind of allies might US have, which bases it might have access to, and thus how many US 5th gen fighters might get fielded. So we can't really carefully consider their number, we can only guess. Saying 20 J20s are added per year, to a total of some 260 in 2030 is a guess. Same with 400 J20. One of many possible guesses. Saying there'd be 500 F22/f35 fielded would also be just a guess. Certainly, there'd be something like 1500 f22/f35 by then in US inventory. Whether they'd have enough bases to place a third or two third of that number is another thing.

Then one could also talk about just how much do those deployed figures matter? So maybe US indeed will be limited to 1000 fighters at once. As it loses planes, possibly at a not-so-favorable loss ratio as the opponent may have more, further 5th gen fighters might take their place. While the opponent lacks not only 5th gen fighters to replace them but possibly also has an ever dwindling number of overall planes left. Say, the conflict starts off with 2000 chinese vs 1000 us planes. US loses 500, china loses 500. But China is left with 1500, while US replenishes their bases and is again at 1000. Rinse and repeat. Until China is down to 500, while US is at 1000 deployed and another 500-1000 in store. This is a gross simplification, but it illustrates the point.

To be honest I don't think the actual results of a conflict scenario should be discussed and should remain out of bounds, however a minimum floor of deployable forces in a scenario could be considered.

From that, I think by 2030 the idea of a fleet on fleet confrontation of 100 J-20s vs 20 F-22s is obviously ludicrous.
I'm not going to speculate about the exact number of what a more realistic fleet on fleet composition my by but I think we can all agree that such a number is not useful and not a realistic representation of equivalent force fleets that would be available by that time even considering the confidence interval of likely 5th gen sizes.