I just don't understand, if J-31 has them same size (or similar size) as J-20's, so why need the later?
If the J10 and J16 can carry the same sized missiles, why need the later?
From a raw performance POV, the J20 should trump the J31 in terms of range and endurance, which will be critically important for a carrier bird, especially a 5th gen, as you don’t want them leashed to slow move and non-stealth tankers (although the USN is working towards addressing this with its work on LO unmanned tankers).
The J20 also has the WS15 in advanced stages of development, while we know of no comparable engine in the works for the J31.
That means while the J31 might perform similarly to the J20 currently, once the J20 gets the WS15, it should move into a different league in terms of flight characteristics. The J31 has no such upgrade on the horizon.
Also, since the J20 is bigger, with correspondingly more thurst, having the same sized bay means the J31 pays a compararively bigger penalty to its performance from having the bay compared to the J20.
It would be similar to hanging the same weapons load on a J10 and J16, the smaller J10 would take a bigger performance hit than the bigger J16.
Since the bays are permanent, that performance hit is also locked in.
The main reason the America F22 and F35 can achieve their kinetic performances are because of their monstrously powerful engines. With a similar layout but significant weaker engines, it would take quite something for the J31 to match the former in terms of agility.
So all in all, I am pretty confident that the J20, even as is, will be better than the J31 in WVR, and once it gets the WS15, it will absolutely dominate.
In a stealth v stealth encounter, where both radar ranges and BVRAAM missile effectiveness will be significantly impaired by the opponent’s stealth, I believe we are on the cusp of entering another golden age of dogfighting, since WVR is where I think most pure 5th gen encounters will be settled.
As such, I feel that raw kinetic performance is going to increasingly matter more than it has since the introduction of BVR going forwards for 5th gens.
I feel this is where America has dropped the ball somewhat with the F35, because when the JSF programme was started and design selected, no one else looked anywhere close to fielding a rival 5th gen.
So the F35 was expected to just easily walk all over legacy fighters in BVR (it doesn’t even have the capacity to carry dogfighting missiles without sacrificing BVRAAMs) and so focused mostly on strike.
With the same layout and weaker engines, albeit with more focus on air combat, I think the J31 would be happy to match the F35 in a dogfight, but the F22 and J20 are in a different league in terms of kinetic performance.
That’s why the PLAAF picked the J20 and has show zero interest in the J31.
The J31 has advantages compared to the J20 for carrier aviation, but the raw performance advantage of the J20, especially the WS15 versions, should still be seriously considered.
I would prefer the PLAN go for both the J31 and J20 rather than just the J31.
It would be like the performance difference between a F14+F18 carrier air wing against one with only F18s.