J-15 carrier fighter thread

[SinoSoldier]

Another late-night drunken posting:

With the appearance of the upgraded J-11B MLU and the presumed cancellation of the J-11D program, this has got me thinking about the future of the J-15 and the prospects of an upgraded version. A notional "J-15B" would supposedly offer the same kind of capabilities seen on the J-11D: AESA radar, PL-10 and PL-15 integration, newer engines and FBW, and related enhancements. However, if the PLAAF has deemed the J-11D to be "past its prime", so to speak, it wouldn't be out of left field for the PLAAF to think similarly with respect to the J-15 program. After all, with the buildup of F-35s in surrounding navies and the supposed development of the "J-XY" naval fighter, the PLANAF might not find it worth the time or money to invest in brand-new J-15Bs. Instead, the older J-15A airframes might undergo a similar MLU program seen with the J-11BG.

In short, the lack of a J-15B variant may be due to the fact that the program doesn't exist at all. The PLANAF might've reappropriated the funds towards the J-35 program or a future MLU program for existing airframes. The Type 002 and CV-16 will continue to use existing airframes for research and basic combat duties if urgently needed, but my bet is that the Type 003 and onwards will consist an all-J-35 airwing.

 

[ougoah]

Another late-night drunken posting:

With the appearance of the upgraded J-11B MLU and the presumed cancellation of the J-11D program, this has got me thinking about the future of the J-15 and the prospects of an upgraded version. A notional "J-15B" would supposedly offer the same kind of capabilities seen on the J-11D: AESA radar, PL-10 and PL-15 integration, newer engines and FBW, and related enhancements. However, if the PLAAF has deemed the J-11D to be "past its prime", so to speak, it wouldn't be out of left field for the PLAAF to think similarly with respect to the J-15 program. After all, with the buildup of F-35s in surrounding navies and the supposed development of the "J-XY" naval fighter, the PLANAF might not find it worth the time or money to invest in brand-new J-15Bs. Instead, the older J-15A airframes might undergo a similar MLU program seen with the J-11BG.

In short, the lack of a J-15B variant may be due to the fact that the program doesn't exist at all. The PLANAF might've reappropriated the funds towards the J-35 program or a future MLU program for existing airframes. The Type 002 and CV-16 will continue to use existing airframes for research and basic combat duties if urgently needed, but my bet is that the Type 003 and onwards will consist an all-J-35 airwing.

Only issue with the proposed J-35 is the limited size unless they expand this fighter. Going with the J-31 prototypes, this future naval fighter will not be able to carry 6 MRAAMs unless future missiles are made much smaller. They won't have side bays. They won't be able to carry anti-ship missiles. They'll have less range compared to the J-20 and J-15. Smaller size does mean smaller tanks and less range I don't care what anyone says, no small plane has anything close to impressive range.

It may be the case that PLAN doesn't need long range AShM and high levels of payload but to support J-15 and other carrier borne planes operating far from carriers.

 

[SinoSoldier]

Only issue with the proposed J-35 is the limited size unless they expand this fighter. Going with the J-31 prototypes, this future naval fighter will not be able to carry 6 MRAAMs unless future missiles are made much smaller. They won't have side bays. They won't be able to carry anti-ship missiles. They'll have less range compared to the J-20 and J-15. Smaller size does mean smaller tanks and less range I don't care what anyone says, no small plane has anything close to impressive range.

It may be the case that PLAN doesn't need long range AShM and high levels of payload but to support J-15 and other carrier borne planes operating far from carriers.

I really don't wish to start another heavy-vs-midweight discussion, as the balance between size and payload or range is ultimately decided and best-known by the PLAN itself. My notion is that, given the possibility that the PLAN sees its aircraft carriers more as a projection of air cover rather than of heavy air-to-surface capabilities, they may very well be unenthused by a "heavyweight" naval fighter, which in turn may be a death knell for future J-15 blocks.

 

[ougoah]

I really don't wish to start another heavy-vs-midweight discussion, as the balance between size and payload or range is ultimately decided and best-known by the PLAN itself. My notion is that, given the possibility that the PLAN sees its aircraft carriers more as a projection of air cover rather than of heavy air-to-surface capabilities, they may very well be unenthused by a "heavyweight" naval fighter, which in turn may be a death knell for future J-15 blocks.

Agreed. Only in the case where the PLAN wants to operate its carrier fighters for air cover where its surface to surface, subs, and H6 launched missiles will take care of the anti surface role. But even for the air cover role, it'll still be nice to have better range along with two more medium range missiles and two extra short range missiles which the J-20 could provide. Anyway that's going back to the medium vs heavy weight.

I honestly do not think the J-15 line will be stopped just because the PLAAF is not interested in the J-11D even if we assume that fighter had promise and no serious issues that couldn't be overcome, the PLAN is going to refuse a J-15B. A J-15B that is similar in improvement to a J-11D or J-16, fulfills a different set of requirements for the PLAN. The PLAAF already has J-20 which we can assume to be far more effective for PLAAF's requirements compared to the J-11D. Especially if PLAAF already operates (close to a hundred?) J-16s and have always planned to upgrade J-11B to approaching the level of J-11D since radar and weapons package accounts for the biggest leap in capability realistically for any fighter.

PLAN is nowhere near having the level of experience the PLAAF has on its 5th gen fighter. It also doesn't have close to a hundred modernised and AESA using flankers. If 003 comes with EMAL and about Nimitz size if the propulsion side of things work out well, then it will greatly improve the J-15's capabilities. A modernised J-15 and electronic attack version is going to boost PLAN's reach and overall firepower. Particularly good if it gets supported by 5th gen fighters. It's like the modernised Tomcat debate. Since PLAAF is already working closely with industry to develop the next generation by supposedly combining variable geometry airframe with drone swarm etc, why not just leap over 5th gen for the navy. 5th gen J-35 is playing a long game of catchup but could be good enough since PLAN is regional only and honestly fighters are just there to slow down and counter enemy air which really starts and stops by destroying their supporting assets and airfields (carriers included).

 

[AndrewS]

I really don't wish to start another heavy-vs-midweight discussion, as the balance between size and payload or range is ultimately decided and best-known by the PLAN itself. My notion is that, given the possibility that the PLAN sees its aircraft carriers more as a projection of air cover rather than of heavy air-to-surface capabilities, they may very well be unenthused by a "heavyweight" naval fighter, which in turn may be a death knell for future J-15 blocks.

There was some discussion previously about future US carrier operations envisioned by CSBA

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In summary, it advocates that the carrier air wing should focus on long-range fighter CAP and long-range reconnaissance - rather than payload for anti-ship or land-attack missions.

And heavyweight fighters because they should have a much longer range than midweight aircraft.
So I really see this as a J-20 versus J-15 question.

 

[Tam]

I really don't wish to start another heavy-vs-midweight discussion, as the balance between size and payload or range is ultimately decided and best-known by the PLAN itself. My notion is that, given the possibility that the PLAN sees its aircraft carriers more as a projection of air cover rather than of heavy air-to-surface capabilities, they may very well be unenthused by a "heavyweight" naval fighter, which in turn may be a death knell for future J-15 blocks.

That doesn't sound right. They should be more enthused more with a long range fighter vs. a fighter with short legs. This goes back to the F-14 vs. F-18 argument once again. But you can also go back to the case of smaller and lighter carrier fighters gradually leading to heavier ones such as the F-4 Phantom and eventually the F-14.

I would agree that its the J-20 vs. J-15 question. Another thing people seem to have forgotten is how the planes are being groomed for electronic warfare, and this favors a larger airframe that can hold all the equipment. EW is going to be very important in future wars and that cannot be under emphasized. You will win or lose by spectral dominance.

 

[Air Force Brat]

That doesn't sound right. They should be more enthused more with a long range fighter vs. a fighter with short legs. This goes back to the F-14 vs. F-18 argument once again. But you can also go back to the case of smaller and lighter carrier fighters gradually leading to heavier ones such as the F-4 Phantom and eventually the F-14.

I would agree that its the J-20 vs. J-15 question. Another thing people seem to have forgotten is how the planes are being groomed for electronic warfare, and this favors a larger airframe that can hold all the equipment. EW is going to be very important in future wars and that cannot be under emphasized. You will win or lose by spectral dominance.

All true, but with China's present carriers, the J-15 isn't able to launch with full fuel and weapons. I know that will change with the CATOBAR carrier, but??? I really see the PLANAF able to use the J-35 to advantage, they will likely confine most of their operations in the near term much closer to home than USN?

 

[Totoro]

Another late-night drunken posting:

In short, the lack of a J-15B variant may be due to the fact that the program doesn't exist at all. The PLANAF might've reappropriated the funds towards the J-35 program or a future MLU program for existing airframes. The Type 002 and CV-16 will continue to use existing airframes for research and basic combat duties if urgently needed, but my bet is that the Type 003 and onwards will consist an all-J-35 airwing.

I don't see this as even remotely plausible. While J-15B may or may not appear, in my opinion it is but guaranteed we will eventually see more J-15s. Even if they're the same, basic variant.
The idea that PLAN built the second carrier only to share the same 24 planes between two carriers is beyond implausible.
Furthermore, anything based on FC-31 is still years, YEARS away in my opinion. So no serial production of notional J-31/35 before 2024 or so and no ready air wing of 36 or so J-31/35 before 2026. In the meantime, the 003 carrier WILL already be serving for a few years, in all likelihood, after being commissioned by 2023 or so. So that'd mean that the same 24 J15s would be shared between three carriers for a few years, until the J31/35 airwing gets built up.

Therefore, what is most plausible answer for me is that J15 (be they basic variant or B variant) is indeed going to be produced further for AT LEAST another 36 or so planes, before production ceases and J31/35 production takes over. When will we actually see those planes? Who knows.
There are two reasons why we're not seeing them yet, in my opinion.
1. PLANAF doesn't want to leak them, even though they're already flying. Why? Who knows.
2. Production is stalled due to some technical issue, which may point towards indeed some B variant. Possibly even something shared with the alleged J11BG variant, which is only now allegedly starting to spread.

 

[Tyler]

It looks like they are withholding something big for the new J-15.

 

[AndrewS]

All true, but with China's present carriers, the J-15 isn't able to launch with full fuel and weapons. I know that will change with the CATOBAR carrier, but??? I really see the PLANAF able to use the J-35 to advantage, they will likely confine most of their operations in the near term much closer to home than USN?

Operations in the 1st Island Chain are close to the Chinese mainland.

For Example
Taiwan - 300km
South Korea - 400km
Okinawa - 500km
Japanese Home Islands - 800km

There's no point in having short ranged fighters launched from an expensive and vulnerable carrier given these distances.
Because they can be covered with land-band fighters - plus tankers where necessary.

Then for the 2nd Island Chain, Guam is some 3000km away.
That is beyond the range of most land-based air support from the Chinese Mainland.
And you don't want to send a vulnerable Chinese carrier close to Guam all by itself.

So this pushes future Chinese Carrier Air Wings to prioritise range for fighters and recon aircraft.
Plus 3000km is still close enough for DF-26 ASBMs and Bombers to launch from mainland China.