So, what evidence do you have to base that on apart from eyeballing it?
To make as ambitious of a claim as you are making or as Richard Santos has made, eyeballing isn't good enough.
As I wrote before, "please have a go at trying to deduce what the maximum take off weight of a J-15 from a Kuznetsov pattern carrier is, under various headwind conditions, and describe it in terms of the aircraft's internal fuel load and external payload."
You know, if that's just the position you have because you want to believe it, that's fine. But please come out and admit that the evidence and logic behind such a position is thin and poor, instead of portraying the situation like there is somehow overwhelming evidence for your position.
No one here can or will answer your question as to MTOW, that's just not disseminated to the outside world. We have lots and lots of pictures of lightly loaded J-15s/SU-33's coming off the ramp, but not one picture of a fully loaded SU-33 or J-15 coming off a ramp...
Those in the free world who have the option of Catapults or Ramps, only fly STOVL aircraft off of ramps, no standard configuration aircraft off of ramps,,, you might bring up the Indians with their Mig-29Ks but there again, find us some full combat load-outs coming off that ramp.
The Russians recently used their SU-33s off the Kuz, but again, no fully loaded Flankers flew off that ramp! The Flankers will carry an extraordinary external load from a land base, with full fuel, but NOT off the ramp, sorry.
Oh, and those dips after launch, lots of carrier aircraft do the dip, even off the cat?? watch Jimmy Dolittle's crew fly those fully fueled B-25s of the Hornet, that will scare the "Krap" right out of you, so that's not a viable argument against the ramp and a load, though that does indicate a very low energy launch, NO MARGIN for error.