plawolf
Lieutenant General
I think we can safely assume at this point that there are 18 or a few more production J-15s available.
For right now, given the training and development the Chinese are still doing for their carrier program, this is probably adequate.
However, the second carrier, 001A, is coming right along. I doubt VERY seriously that she will ever have any kind of catapults. The Chinese have said as much.
So, there will be two STOBAR carriers, each capable of carrying 20 or so J-15s available to the Chinese for the next several decades.
I believe therefore that for training needs, for maintenance, for test, and for equipping those first two ships that the PLAN will probably build no fewer than fifty J-15s for those two carriers.
But, IMHO, there is nothing at that says the CATOBAR capable fighters cannot fly off of the STOBAR decks. In fact, that is probably what will happen.
We may see 24 or more of the initial J-15s followed by the J-15A (which has the CATOBAR capability, AESA, etc.) which could be used on both types.
It is clear to me that the Type 002 carrier will most probably, at this point, be a CATOBAR carrier...probably conventionally powered.
As you rightly pointed out, CATOBAR fighters could operate perfectly well from STOBAR carriers.
However STOBAR fighters would suffer significant performances operating from CATOBAR carriers.
Because of this, it makes the most sense for the PLAN to maximise CATOBAR J15s while minimising STOBAR versions even if 002 cannot be adapted to CATOBAR later.
Given the timeframes involved; how long the J15 has been in production for; Chinese industrial capacity and will, and past form. It is my view that if the PLAN wanted 40-50 STOBAR J15As, they will have them already, or significantly more than what they have now.
Without the recent CATOBAR J15B photo, I might have been inclined to believe they are switching to large batch production and are about to roll an entire regiment's worth out.
But with that, I think they are deliberately holding back from fully commiting to building J15s as they are waiting for the CATOBAR version before they start significantly expanding their fleet.