J-10 Thread IV

[Schwerter_]

Let's not forget that J-10C has won Golden Helmet non stop ever since its induction and beaten J-16 every time. Both have their advantages and disadvantages and that's why they are meant to complement each other.

Not every time to be exact. J16 got the Golden Helmet (well, a crew flying the J16 did) in 2018, and apparently 雾都雄鹰 or unit 95478 won at least one Golden Helmet in 2020.
My personal take from a number of official military reports is that the J-16 seems to have a bit more going for it in BVR fights as I remember quite a few reports saying the J-16 is the first to have a lock-on and to fire, but generally the J-10C is superior in dogfights. There’s also a report a few months back mentioning a pair of J-10C won over 2 J-16 using “some new radar function”, details are kept vague of course. The two platforms are both good at air-to-air combat and they seem to very much complement each other.

p.s. apparently 雾都雄鹰 has around 8-9 golden helmets, those guys are a bunch of beasts

 

[Schwerter_]

Not every time to be exact. J16 got the Golden Helmet (well, a crew flying the J16 did) in 2018, and apparently 雾都雄鹰 or unit 95478 won at least one Golden Helmet in 2020.
My personal take from a number of official military reports is that the J-16 seems to have a bit more going for it in BVR fights as I remember quite a few reports saying the J-16 is the first to have a lock-on and to fire, but generally the J-10C is superior in dogfights. There’s also a report a few months back mentioning a pair of J-10C won over 2 J-16 using “some new radar function”, details are kept vague of course. The two platforms are both good at air-to-air combat and they seem to very much complement each other.

p.s. apparently 雾都雄鹰 has around 8-9 golden helmets, those guys are a bunch of beasts

Thanks to Deino I now know which unit this is, it’s the 98th air brigade stationed in Chongqing. Hopefully one day I can be as knowledgeable in Chinese military units as him xd

Attached is a photo of the golden helmets the brigade has won throughout the years

 

[Gloire_bb]

Such light scenarios may be prevalent if you're against a helpless third world country, so imo that scenario seems unlikely for China's case.

They're likeliest in any scenario where you face any resistance(i.e. where it's better to not just loiter over the enemy). It's simply the nature of war.
For those typical tasks - J-10 can carry all basic PGMs(laser/satellite 250/500 kg bombs; ARMs; ASCMs), AAMs(MRAAMs and WVR AAMs), targeting&ew pods - and combine them in any way necessary to execute any mission with 1-2 targets per time.

Such growth really only comes from the inherent aforementioned flaws of the medium fighters tho, and I don't think capability-wise it could eclipse what the flanker platforms can offer with its J-16, J-16D, and J-11BG/D.

They just need to not do worse in all scenarios other than those requiring long-range/long loiter/independent action.
This alone will justify them, giving them a massive advantage in cost-effectiveness.
If J-10 family in PLA service can stay ahead of F-16s around - it alone is a massive advantage for 1-2 decades to come.

tbf I won't mind if the J-10 is able to be replaced by a better medium weight fighter, increase in fuel capacity, redesigned wing for payload and whatnot, but I think we both know that it's very unlikely to happen, thus my hypothesis on the end of J-10 production.

WS-15 makes it very very doable.
Furthermore, if Sukhoi is right, you basically can do it even with an uprated WS-10. Just strictly follow the "half of the big one" rule for engine commonality.

 

[AndrewS]

Sure on a pure one-on-one comparison heavyweights like the J16 win hands down, but a J16 needs two pilots and cannot be in two places at once, whereas two J10s can. Having a J10 overhead providing air support is infinitely better than having zero J16s.

Let's say there is an overall cost difference of 50% more for a J-16 over a J-10 over the lifetime of the fighter jet. That mirrors the difference between the F-16 versus F-15C.

So you get 3 J-10 for the cost of 2 J-16.

For missions such as defensive counter-air and short-range offensive counter-air, I think the J-10 is way better than the J-16.

For medium-range offensive counter-air, I think the J-10 and J-16 are about equal.

For long-range offensive counter-air, the J-16 is better than the J-10.

Then you have strike missions, where the payload capacity of the J-16 generally means it is a better choice than the J-10.

And overall, I think the PLAAF does have enough defensive counter-air and short-range offensive counter-air missions to justify a medium weight fighter like the J-10.

 

[OppositeDay]

Besides, I really doubt that operating J-10 is significantly more expensive than operating the flankers in practice. The stereotype of russian designs are to be cheap and easy to maintain, afterall. Then there's also the matter of those fuel tanks, when the time comes that these J-10 are put into combat, you'd have to assume that to maximize the capability of the aircrafts, the J-10 pilots will keep throwing away these fuel tanks, or they will need to be refueled mid-flight by aerial refueling aircraft more frequently, so that would be an extra operational cost that heavyweight fighters won't constantly face. PLA's procurement so far also to me doesn't seem to indicate that cost is something that they need to worry about. If that's the case, the PLA's procurement would be more a kin to that of the russian military, and things like the J-20 would suffer a similar fate to the Su-57, stuck in an uncertain low order limbo for years.

Shilao estimates the operating cost (per sortie I assume) of a twin engines aircraft to be three times that of a single engine aircraft equipped with the same engine. It seems reasonable to me considering the annual operating cost ratio between F-15 and F-16 and their sorties availability.

Cost is certainly something PLA must worry about. There are enormous cases of China exporting ground and naval equipment with higher specs than domestic variants in active PLA service. If money is not a concern, why ain't Type 054A in PLAN built to Type 054AP spec? Why are PLAGF MBTs lacking many features available for export tanks? There's a middle ground between being cash-strapped like Russia and having endless funding.

J-10 certainly shouldn't replace J-16 and J-20 fleets.
But the opposite is also true, moreover - i am of opinion that J-10 shall be directly replaced with an equivalent single-engine fighter within PLAAF OoB in the future.
Probably starting in 2030-35.

Shilao put the operating costs of twin medium thrust engine aircraft at roughly half of twin high thrust engine aircraft (he got the number by comparing Mig-29 with Su-27). If that's true, then we can expect the operating cost of a twin medium thrust engine aircraft to be roughly 50% higher than a single high thrust engine aircraft. A land-based J-35 could be a preferable future upgrade path for J-10 than a brand new single engine stealth aircraft. PLAAF is expected to eventually operate drones with WS-13/WS-19 anyway.

If the J-10 replacement does not require stealth, then is it worth it to invest in a brand new design? J-10's supposed shortcomings are 1) range and 2) hardpoints and maybe 3) size limitation on more powerful avionics. Moving avionics to the new dorsal spine to make way for a bigger internal tank can presumably alleviate both 1 and 2. Advances in PLA's overall situation awareness capabilities can alleviate 3. I'm not sure if China can spare the development hours on a new non-stealth combat aircraft for further improvements.

I do want to to see WS-15 on a single engine aircraft though. Maybe I should hope for breakthroughs in low maintenance stealth that require a brand new design to take advantage.

 

[SteelBird]

Funny and self serving to pick the F16 that has notoriously poor range. Why not look at the Rafale and Typhoon? Which are also medium fighters and far closer to the J10 in design philosophy and era.

I think the reasons he picked the F-16 were:
1. J-10 was designed as adversary to F-16 in mind from the very beginning
2. Both aircraft are single engine

 

[minime]

If the J-10 replacement does not require stealth, then is it worth it to invest in a brand new design? J-10's supposed shortcomings are 1) range and 2) hardpoints and maybe 3) size limitation on more powerful avionics. Moving avionics to the new dorsal spine to make way for a bigger internal tank can presumably alleviate both 1 and 2. Advances in PLA's overall situation awareness capabilities can alleviate 3. I'm not sure if China can spare the development hours on a new non-stealth combat aircraft for further improvements.

Like the idea of "moving avionics to the new dorsal spine to make way for a bigger internal tank can presumably alleviate both 1 and 2."
One theory I heard is moving the avionics to the new dorsal spine can save big space inside the airframe since it's much easier to arrange the fuel tank.
Like one under-wing 1600 liter drop tank big.

 

[minime]

I think the reasons he picked the F-16 were:
1. J-10 was designed as adversary to F-16 in mind from the very beginning
2. Both aircraft are single engine

I could be wrong but I think F-16 has a better range than J-10
1) more efficient engine
2) bigger internal volume due to better blended wingbody since no need for an indented fuselage

 

[Akame]

New J-10

 

[Schwerter_]

View attachment 93576
New J-10

Extremely strange that they’d use a batch 7 J-10C (iirc the change to WS-10 started at least somewhere during batch 6) equipped with AL-31, a new hud, and a radically different spine just to make a version allegedly dedicated to the aerobatics team (at least that’s the theory circulating around with this new pic, and the smoke generator pod on the pylon as well as the may-be smoke exhaust under the tail boom that Deino noticed seem to support the theory)