J-10 Thread IV
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
I really doubt Aviation Week needed to count serial numbers. That would be very silly as they can simply log on to any number of fanboy sites and get that info effortlessly. As head of Beijing bureau for Aviation Week, I am sure Mr. Perrett has a lot more direct personal/insider access to senior AVIC management than we do and for most of the info, all he has to do is to ask. They act as unofficial conduits all the time. The article specifically mentioned the production of two J-11BS and six J-16D last year. Each time Mr. Perrett puts exact numbers in black and white, he is staking his reputation and credibility with people he talks to everyday in Beijing who got the same email and read the same article a few days ago. For all we don't know, he probably got permission from AVIC to publish the exact numbers unless he plans to retire soon so not having to worry about AVIC doors shutting on him. Years ago after the AVIC merger and the creation of AECC, online forum discussions were full of optimism about the WS-15 (and C-919), the same magazine was much more circumspect pointing out how little resources China was actually investing in relative to the 'Western' countries (like 1/10 in both money and people). Who turned out to be more prescient? Aviation Week's track record has been excellent.
I think people took the chart numbers too literally. View these numbers more as moving averages/production capacity or better yet, as trends. I am surprised no one has yet raised the point about the effect of the pandemic on production rates! Why wasn't that reflected in the Aviation Week chart? Surely there must have been a slow-down somewhere along the entire supply chain. Someone pointed out CAC announced they exceeded the production quota last year so count must be higher. Did it occur to anyone that they could be making up for past slow-downs? In the end, a fixed size batch is a fixed size batch while the actual deliveries can be off for any number of reasons..
So the take-away is that current J-10C production rate is around 24 and trending downward, a steady 30 for J-16 and 18 for J-20A. The past is fixed and we can all speculate about future possibilities and reassessments/readjustments based on post-current-war analysis. It is more interesting to ask whether the medium-term (next 5-Year Plan) goal is J-7/J-8 replacement or actual fleet expansion with long-term implications on manpower/pension and resource allocations. A J-10D or J-XY for the Air Force? What will the Navy do with its small fleet of Su-30MK2s? Will the J-20S wait for WS-15 (less eventual types) and will J-20S replace or complement J-20A? Will J-20 shift more towards a strike role as the US is retiring its F-22 fleet? Mr. Perrett put forth his informed opinions: J-7/8 replacement first, J-10D and no J-XY for Air Force, and J-16 for the Navy. He seems to be basing these on the premise that PLA puts premium on reducing logisticaly headaches and a presumed cautious ramp up of advanced engines for J20/J-XY after 2025 while maintaining a steady supply of WS-10s.
Aside from WS-15, do you have any other support for Aviation Week's track record been excellent?
I understand that since you posted this article, you are going to want to defend it. Frankly, you are gettin too defensive.
The reality is that these numbers are not accurate. PLAAF is not going to give away numbers to Western sources, because these are considered to be state secrets. People that have followed these things for a long time know that any additional sources are good to look at. However, the numbers that was presented in that article have some problems. The most obvious one is J-20A production and J-10C production. CAC announced they had set all time record in aircraft delivery last year. Clearly, 42 total aircraft would not be setting an all time high. The increased J-20 production does not have anything to do with COVID. It has to do with the change over from J-20I to J-20II (using WS-10C as the engine) and finally being able to ramp up. The production rate for J-20 last year was probably around 35 to 40. It will be higher this year.
As for other points. There is only 1 J-8 brigade left with PLAAF. So there does not exist 146 J-8s for replacement. That's another part Mr Perett got wrong. There are also over 226 J-7s still in service with PLAAF. You do not need to be an expert to figure out that J-7/8 will be replaced soon. That's very obvious.
We can certainly have a discussion on future PLAAF fleet composition. There is a thread for this Future PLA combat aircraft composition
So, give me an example of Mr Perrett or Aviation Week in the recent past breaking a piece of unique and significant piece news for the Chinese military aerospace industry, that turned out to be true?
I've been reading the pieces by Aviation Week for a while, and frankly I am not impressed, and their takes tend to phone it in and is unaware of the most recent PLA developments.
Hm, how would that change things on the korean peninsula?
While it should be quite the big upgrade for the drpk, south korea does have f-35s though (and quite a lot of 4th gen planes iirc).
That's a joke right?
Hypothetically, would we call it J-10AC (Chaoxin), J-10AK (Korea), or J-10ANK (North Korea)
lol
It doesn’t take any special access with AVIC to know that China could only invest in only 1/10th the R&D of countries which full mature aerospace industries, since you need to have money to spend money, or that the creation of AECC might not improve the WS-15’s timeline.
This idea that Aviation Week editors have some special connection to people who work in AVIC is not just conjectural, but pretty much runs against observable facts. You would think if they truly had some kind of special access they would be the guys getting the scoop on new planes instead of always being a week behind the open source community and playing catch up on open source leaks. Either Aviation Week’s sources aren’t very good or they don’t actually exist. Also given that the new opsec around leaked photos has been broadly deliberate about scrambling and hiding serials and other identifying information, suggesting the PLA has a level of heightened sensitivity around force tracking, the idea that anyone from AVIC would be allowed to share information about total production is extremely dubious. That’s not just a fireable offense, but a potential breach of national security enforcements. A lot of these journalists are not as rigorous as you’re making them out to be. Even prestige outlets like the NYT publish poorly vetted information all the time.
I think it would be more likely North Korea would get MiG-29s given the current security situation.
The Russians have gazillions of them in storage and the RuAF does not want them. Russia had good relations with South Korea. Even their MICs cooperated. But after recent sanctions it remains to be seen if this will continue to be the case.
The Russians have gazillions of them in storage and the RuAF does not want them. Russia had good relations with South Korea. Even their MICs cooperated. But after recent sanctions it remains to be seen if this will continue to be the case.
It's not a joke. According to Yankeesama North Korean pilots have been training in China for some time. They do have difficulties flying high Gs though.