J-10 Thread IV

plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Significant aerodynamic changes on the J10C model would seem unlikely at this stage.

The PLAAF has little interest in making the J10C more multirole, and even TVC adaption is a major question mark, so there isn’t much scope for major structural work.

I also don’t see CAC having much appetite to significantly redesign the J10 specifically for the export market. They already have the JF17 for export. While there is a significant capacity gap between the J10 and JF17, it’s hard to see who would go for the J10 only and not even consider the JF17. Either they would go for the JF17 or they would go Russia/Western even if the J10 was available. There is just a very low probability of that investment generating worthwhile returns.

Besides, CAC are currently way too busy with the J20, UCAVs and probably starting work on a 6th gen concept or even another single engined 5th gen.

CAC can probably make more money and with better margins selling UCAV on the export market compared to any potential J10 sale. If they are really serious about trying to challenge the Russians and western nations in terms of fighter sales, a single engined 5th gen offering would be a far better bet. Especially if they leverage a lot of the experience gained from the J20. They should be able to go a single engined medium wait fighter with fairly high probability of success and probably a modest budget. Not only would such an offering give CAC a genuine chance to secure significant export orders and establish itself as one of the top fighter makers in the world able to go toe-to-toe with the best the Americans have to offer, it could potentially also secure significant PLAAF and PLANAF domestic orders for such a fighter.
 
I

Inst

Captain
@plawolf

The J-10CE as is is a relatively competitive aircraft, roughly a heavier version of the Gripen with better T/W and a more capable AESA. Its present limitations would amount to its ability to compete with the heavier Eurocanards and the TVC-ed Flanker in WVR, but it has a tremendous advantage over both the Gripen and the Eurocanards in terms of cost. It's only 40 million, compared to the 64 million F-16V.

With a TVC-mod (or even a TVC-retrofit), its only inferiority to the heavier Eurocanards and the Flanker would be in terms of its strike capability and range. Properly designed CFTs (and these were on the table) might help there.

For the PLAAF itself, the J-10 is sort of a dead object. However, given that it's not the case that everyone and their dog is flying a F-35 (the Europeans are, the American East Asian allies are, but others aren't), an upgraded J-10 with PL-15Es might provide a strong object of sales for Bangladesh and Pakistan to counter the InAF Rafales. Moreover, a major concern with India is potential acquisitions of Su-57s or F-35s. The ferry range of J-20s seems to be excellent, potentially allowing them to rebase quickly to different fronts, but the Chinese 4th generation fleet would be hard pressed to face even Su-57s. Selling Bangladesh and Pakistan J-10s instead of your suggested 5th generation single-engined fighter would reduce the pressure on India to move to 5th generation fighters early.

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For the JF-17, the problem with the aircraft is that, while extremely cheap, it's a 3.5th to 4th generation fighter in terms of its aerodynamics. A more powerful engine might resolve the issue, but as is, it's basically hoping to trade 1:1 vs the Rafale in BVR and hope the fight doesn't go to WVR. The same applies to JF-17 matchups vs all other 4th generation fighters on the export market.

It has an advantage in that it operates a mediumweight engine, as opposed to a heavyweight engine, making it cheap and affordable, but if we're talking about cost, or strike capability vs rebels and other groups without sophisticated aerial warfare equipment, why not simply go to the L-15 trainer? Why not simply get a L-15 to bomb out your rebels with?

That is why I don't think the JF-17 will go much of anywhere, because its limited WVR ability will mean that it'll get toasted by true 4th and 4.5th generation fighters, and its strike capability is outmatched for cost by Chinese trainers.

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As for the proposed CAC single-engined fighter, first, have we seen any strong evidence of such an aircraft? Moreover, a CAC single-engined fighter is going to be in competition with land-based variants of the J-31/35 when it comes to selling to the PAF. It is also going to require a WS-15, as opposed to being upgradable to one like the J-20. Exporting a WS-15, likewise, is going to give foreigners access to how the WS-15 works, as well as its platform limitations, making the J-20 easier to counter.

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When it comes to exporting the J-10, it basically comes down to, it's ready and it's relatively obsolete within the PLAAF. Given the low export price of the J-10CE, it's a competitive export product to whoever wants it. Having refits for mainly the TVC capability means that the PLAAF could both sell new J-10CEs, as well as used J-10 airframes as handmedowns to whoever wants them.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
So who would be the intended expert customer for a J10CE?

Pakistan seems to be toying with the idea, but seems to want to hold out for the J31/35 to achieve true technological superiority to counter the IAF’s numerical advantage. Which TBH, is there best strategy. For them, the J10 is very much a back up in case something significant happens to the J31/35 programme, or tensions rise drastically with India and they need combat ready airframes ASAP.

Bangladesh can’t even afford JF17s never mind J10s.

Everyone else has either bought western or Russian and the J10 is unlikely to make anyone switch suppliers. Especially since the J10C as is, is pretty much pure air superiority fighter with some AG capabilities. While it is PGM capable, it’s seriously limited in carry weight and hardpoints to offer much serious competition to western or Russian equivalents. Most countries shopping for J10 class fighters want multirole first and foremost as they cannot afford to have dedicated air superiority and strike assets like the PLAAF.

The only country that might make a big enough purchase to make an export variant worthwhile is Iran.

While Sino-Israeli rations are bad enough that China will likely not give a flying F about Israeli concerns to such a sale, the same cannot be said of Chinese relations with the SA block. I just cannot see China wanting to make such a high profile arms sale to Iran and risk serious damage to its relations with Saudi and friends.

Not to mention Iranian security doesn’t inspire great confidence right now, and I would imagine CAC would have reservations about Iran pitching J10CIs against USAF F22s and/or USN F35s and the reputational damage that could do to them when they unsurprisingly get spanked.
 
xyqq

xyqq

Junior Member
Registered Member
The J-10C of the serial number 61038 and construction number J10C0324 (followed by a white-radome J-16). It carried 3 types of training missiles: two PL-10 missiles close to wingtips, a PL-12 missile under its right middle pylon, and a PL-15 missile under the left.

J-10C-front1.jpg
 
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I

Inst

Captain
plawolf said:
So who would be the intended expert customer for a J10CE?

Pakistan seems to be toying with the idea, but seems to want to hold out for the J31/35 to achieve true technological superiority to counter the IAF’s numerical advantage. Which TBH, is there best strategy. For them, the J10 is very much a back up in case something significant happens to the J31/35 programme, or tensions rise drastically with India and they need combat ready airframes ASAP.

Bangladesh can’t even afford JF17s never mind J10s.

Everyone else has either bought western or Russian and the J10 is unlikely to make anyone switch suppliers. Especially since the J10C as is, is pretty much pure air superiority fighter with some AG capabilities. While it is PGM capable, it’s seriously limited in carry weight and hardpoints to offer much serious competition to western or Russian equivalents. Most countries shopping for J10 class fighters want multirole first and foremost as they cannot afford to have dedicated air superiority and strike assets like the PLAAF.

The only country that might make a big enough purchase to make an export variant worthwhile is Iran.

While Sino-Israeli rations are bad enough that China will likely not give a flying F about Israeli concerns to such a sale, the same cannot be said of Chinese relations with the SA block. I just cannot see China wanting to make such a high profile arms sale to Iran and risk serious damage to its relations with Saudi and friends.

Not to mention Iranian security doesn’t inspire great confidence right now, and I would imagine CAC would have reservations about Iran pitching J10CIs against USAF F22s and/or USN F35s and the reputational damage that could do to them when they unsurprisingly get spanked.
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I think a big issue with the J-31 is that, first, it seems to be a relatively delayed project, most likely not entering production in the near future, given the timelines we've seen with the J-20. An export variant will likewise take further time to design. Meanwhile, InAF Rafales are in the air, and the Pakistanis are stuck hoping their upgraded JF-17s with PL-15E missiles can match a very stealth 4th gen in BVR. Moreover, selling the Pakistanis and Bangladeshis J-10s has the side benefit that, unlike a sale of J-31s, it won't alarm Indian media and the Indian defense establishment into rapidly buying Su-57s or F-35s, which would be a problem for China in that it'd require a Chinese aerospace build-up to counter.

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That said, now that people are mentioning future Chengdu stealth jets, here's an interesting proposition. I think most people are imagining that Chengdu will come out with a single-engined miniaturized J-20 for export, but what if they produce a stealth aircraft along the lines of a JF-17 instead? When it comes out to affordability issues, either a FC-31 or a J-20 (which is not for export) is not going to fit the bill for most purchasers of stealth jet. Moreover, there's a hole in the PLAAF orbat for a super-cheap "low" stealth fighter that the FC-31 is unlikely to fully fill, given its twin-engined design and costs likely comparable to the larger J-20.

In that regard, perhaps the rumors of the Chengdu single-engined fighter are not for a single-heavy-engine fighter, a la a stealth J-10, but rather a single-medium-engine fighter, a la a stealth JF-17. A stealth JF-17, in contrast to a stealth J-10, is likely going to be significantly cheaper because of its lower structural weight, and due to its low cost, doesn't need to defeat a F-35 one on one. Moreover, while a FC-31 derived platform can likely match a F-35 in terms of stealth, a stealth JF-17 can, due to its lower size, defeat a F-35 in terms of stealth, not only in the radar band, but also in the visual/UV band (smaller size) and the infrared band due to its less energetic engines.

In other words, by producing an even smaller stealth aircraft than the US has, it provides the PLAAF an option to beat the USAF at its own game, with an aircraft that can out-submarine the F-35 and provide "flying mine" support against enemy aircraft.

Since we're looking for an ultra-cheap export stealth fighter, capabilities can be sacrificed. Whereas the F-35 has two medium-length high-depth bomb bays, a potential stealth JF-17 can get away with only one, sufficient for three PL-15 class missiles or a single JSM equivalent. A stealth JF-17, likewise, can also sacrifice dogfighting capabilities in the same way the F-35 does. True, to sell to global yokels, you need dogfighting capability, but if you have a TVC engine, you can impress ignorant tin-pot dictators by displaying the usual airshow gimmicks possible with TVC.

A further advantage is that if you're working a clean-sheet design, you can build preparations for sixth generation fighter design by incorporating sixth generation concepts like taillessness or folding tails. Since your performance requirements are gimped by the nature of the aircraft being an export fighter internationally and a skeet fighter domestically, the aerodynamic design is greatly simplified, and what's more, consider the JF-17 itself. The JF-17 gave Chengdu useful experience with novel aerodynamic design motifs (LERX and DSI being two of them) that were later incorporated into the J-20. A stealth JF-17, likewise, can provide Chengdu a shot at field-testing 6th generation concepts that likely will be later implemented onto an actual Chinese-only 6th generation fighter. Stuff like LEVCONs, unfolding actuators, and so on, can be tested here instead of on a full-sized sixth generation fighter.
 
Maula Jatt

Maula Jatt

Junior Member
Registered Member
Pak air chief is saying they'll induct a new plane this year

But I don't know if this plane is the answer, it adds nothing ground breaking to PAF except that you got a new toy

J 35 thing will be good but

A- Don't know if you can get it or not
B- I don't know how long it'll take but my amatuer take is probably 5-10 years for it to be only included into PLAAF forget export
C- If you get into hot conflict I mean you can't really pull up with JF-17 (even with PL 15) vs Rafaele and meteor and expect anything good out of it

So imo buy just couple of J 10 C, train with it so if you're in imminent danger you can get it and you know how to use it

But getting a whole lot of em seems stupid imo or they're getting intelligence of imminent danger

Who knows?
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Bigboii said:
Pak air chief is saying they'll induct a new plane this year

But I don't know if this plane is the answer, it adds nothing ground breaking to PAF except that you got a new toy

J 35 thing will be good but

A- Don't know if you can get it or not
B- I don't know how long it'll take but my amatuer take is probably 5-10 years for it to be only included into PLAAF forget export
C- If you get into hot conflict I mean you can't really pull up with JF-17 (even with PL 15) vs Rafaele and meteor and expect anything good out of it

So imo buy just couple of J 10 C, train with it so if you're in imminent danger you can get it and you know how to use it

But getting a whole lot of em seems stupid imo or they're getting intelligence of imminent danger

Who knows?
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Last off topic post:

There is zero chance that the FC-31 will be ready for induction this year. Zero chance. The actual prototype has not flown yet.
 
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