J-10 Thread IV

[gelgoog]

You missed my point - I'm aruging (against) what people said J10 production line in China can be phased out just because of J20 is checking in... ...

Yeah no kidding. Both aircraft are aimed at totally different segments. If the J-20 will replace anything it will be the J-11 series.

 

[AndrewS]

Yeah no kidding. Both aircraft are aimed at totally different segments. If the J-20 will replace anything it will be the J-11 series.

Yes, the J-20 is a heavyweight fighter like the J-10. And the J-31 is a mediumweight fighter like the J-10.

But in a high-intensity war, which would see the Chinese Air Force facing off against opposing stealth fighters, what China needs are more 5th gen stealth fighters (like the J-20 or J-31) instead of vulnerable J-11 or J-10 fighters.

At the moment, the J-20 is the only Chinese stealth fighter option available. Plus there is a case of the J-11 to stick around as a heavyweight strike aircraft with a large payload.

And there will be around 400 J-10s in total, which is sufficient for close-in contingencies.

 

[Dizasta1]

At present, America is the only country to have had not only operational Gen-5 Stealth fighter, but also to have had fielded in actual combat zone. Russia is another country which along with China have active stealth aircraft programs. Only Russia and China are close to fielding Stealth aircraft in large numbers. Europe is dependent on F-35s, quantities vary from country to country. However Europe as a whole wouldn't any more than 500 F-35s as best case scenario. Largely due to budgetary constraints, which were caused by the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. And even though it has been a decade since the global financial crisis, the trend of clutching their fists full of money, won't ease up. Whatever the case, the stealth transformation of air forces around the world, would likely be gradual than rapid and the numbers, even though they look impressive, aren't that threatening. Europe will likely be using a mix of stealth and legacy fighters to make up for numbers. Few countries, even in Europe can afford to be an all aspects stealth combat fleet (fighters, fighter bombers and long range bombers). With that in mind, Russia and China are pacing themselves in the stealth aircraft development. In actual war, no country is stupid enough to go head on into a fight. As such, it is far more likely that stealth drones, commanded by A.I controls, in larger numbers, would be threatening to any nation. The race for A.I tech is at fever pitch, on all sides of the spectrum, and whoever gets their first, will effectively put to rest old generation warfare tactics. So as much as F-35s deployed by more Pro-West countries, sounds ominous, it isn't. Artificial Intelligence is what will kill the competition, period.

 

[Deino]

Guys ... can we stay on the J-10???

 

[defenceman]

It all depends on whether CAC manages to secure sizable orders, not just from Pakistan, rather new markets, like in Africa, South America and South East Asia. When there is a growing demand for J-10CEs, then CAC will offer further options like CTFs, TVNs and other goodies for the more serious buyers.

Power plants for fighter jets are designed with room for additional capabilities incorporated to the aircraft. So it's plausible that CFTs would be well within the envelope of the J-10CE's power plant.

Hi dizasta1 thanks for your detailed
thank you

 

[AndrewS]

At present, America is the only country to have had not only operational Gen-5 Stealth fighter, but also to have had fielded in actual combat zone. Russia is another country which along with China have active stealth aircraft programs. Only Russia and China are close to fielding Stealth aircraft in large numbers. Europe is dependent on F-35s, quantities vary from country to country. However Europe as a whole wouldn't any more than 500 F-35s as best case scenario. Largely due to budgetary constraints, which were caused by the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. And even though it has been a decade since the global financial crisis, the trend of clutching their fists full of money, won't ease up. Whatever the case, the stealth transformation of air forces around the world, would likely be gradual than rapid and the numbers, even though they look impressive, aren't that threatening. Europe will likely be using a mix of stealth and legacy fighters to make up for numbers. Few countries, even in Europe can afford to be an all aspects stealth combat fleet (fighters, fighter bombers and long range bombers). With that in mind, Russia and China are pacing themselves in the stealth aircraft development. In actual war, no country is stupid enough to go head on into a fight. As such, it is far more likely that stealth drones, commanded by A.I controls, in larger numbers, would be threatening to any nation. The race for A.I tech is at fever pitch, on all sides of the spectrum, and whoever gets their first, will effectively put to rest old generation warfare tactics. So as much as F-35s deployed by more Pro-West countries, sounds ominous, it isn't. Artificial Intelligence is what will kill the competition, period.

Last post on the topic.

Russia isn't anywhere near fielding stealth aircraft in large numbers.

They've slashed orders for the Su-57 to just 12 aircraft, primarily due to budget constraints.
And going forward, Russia is still going to struggle economically because it is involved in an intractable conflict in the Ukraine and is under sanctions from Europe+USA.

Therefore future orders of the Su-57 are likely to be limited.

So how is Russia going to fund a future lightweight stealth fighter and stealth bomber programme like China or the USA?

 

[Dizasta1]

Last post on the topic.

Russia isn't anywhere near fielding stealth aircraft in large numbers.

They've slashed orders for the Su-57 to just 12 aircraft, primarily due to budget constraints.
And going forward, Russia is still going to struggle economically because it is involved in an intractable conflict in the Ukraine and is under sanctions from Europe+USA.

Therefore future orders of the Su-57 are likely to be limited.

So how is Russia going to fund a future lightweight stealth fighter and stealth bomber programme like China or the USA?

Ever considered the possibility that the other two programs may perhaps be factored in for the gradual production of Su-57 Frazors? Unlike the former Soviet Union, the Russian Federation is being sensible, having a balanced approach on defense acquisitions.

 

[antiterror13]

Last post on the topic.

Russia isn't anywhere near fielding stealth aircraft in large numbers.

They've slashed orders for the Su-57 to just 12 aircraft, primarily due to budget constraints.
And going forward, Russia is still going to struggle economically because it is involved in an intractable conflict in the Ukraine and is under sanctions from Europe+USA.

Therefore future orders of the Su-57 are likely to be limited.

So how is Russia going to fund a future lightweight stealth fighter and stealth bomber programme like China or the USA?

There is no way Russia is able to develop true 5th Gen fighter the same way as the US and China ... in fact, the US and China are in the different league themselves compare to the rest of the world, including the EU and Japan ... let alone Russia

 

[gelgoog]

...

They've slashed orders for the Su-57 to just 12 aircraft, primarily due to budget constraints.
And going forward, Russia is still going to struggle economically because it is involved in an intractable conflict in the Ukraine and is under sanctions from Europe+USA.

Therefore future orders of the Su-57 are likely to be limited.

So how is Russia going to fund a future lightweight stealth fighter and stealth bomber programme like China or the USA?

I think the Su-57 will be redesigned to improve its manufacturability. Probably after the first 12 aircraft batch is delivered. Currently the manufacturing processes I have seen in Russian documentaries are highly artisanal and not suited for cheap mass production of the aircraft. It seems that the Russians, much like the Chinese and Americans did, will focus on the twin-engine aircraft. This is particularly true in their case because of the large Russian airspace.

However there were plans for a smaller Russian aircraft. In fact I remember hearing about the single engine aircraft project before the PAK-FA was ever announced. The LFI/LFS single engine fighter programs. AFAIK these were cancelled in favor of the PAK-FA. Still I doubt the Russians are happy with the MiG-35 as a replacement in the lightweight fighter category. A large part of the program cost for a new lightweight fighter would be developing the engine and the systems. Once the Russians have the PAK-FA engines and systems working to their satisfaction it would not be that hard to design a single engine aircraft I think. But it might take 8 years or more until we see one from the Russians in production.

What will be interesting is to see if the Chinese will put the TVC J-10 into production or not. Or if that engine will be used for anything other than the demonstrator aircraft.
There is also the issue that the Chinese still have not completely replaced the J-7 in large enough numbers. Or that a large fraction of the J-10s that are in service are older J-10A or J-10B types with seriously degraded radars versus the J-10C. There is a huge difference in terms of radar capabilities between types. Given the age of the airframes is still quite low I think an upgrade program for these aircraft should be put into place.

I also do not expect the Chinese to stop J-10 production until more J-7s are put into pasture.

I think the Chinese will still produce at least 100/150 J-16 aircraft and 150/200 J-10 aircraft before the production of third generation aircraft is stopped.
It depends on how many Q-5 and J-7 aircraft still need to be replaced. I think the Chinese will replace at least half of the J-7s still in service with third generation J-10 aircraft.

 

[gelgoog]

Also, with regards to possible J-10 exports, what about these old rumours?

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These are not the most reliable of sources. But the Iranian Air Force is dated like heck.
Oil prices are probably currently too low for them to be able to make a good deal but it is not like the Iranians have a lot of options.