Since I was never really happy with that one disclosure about J-10's range, stating 1650 km for "Basic range", here's the result of my analysis, flawed as it may be.
Using photographs of J-10 and F-16, and known values such as missile lengths for comparison, i got the following dimensions for J-10s drop tanks:
Big ones: 5.98 meters long, 0.65 m in diameter.
Centerline: 4.57 m long, 0.58 m in diameter.
Sizing them to F-16's tanks and their known quantities, adjusting for shape difference, I got the following fuel hold approximations:
Big ones: 1670 liters (440 gallons)
Centerline: 900 liters (240 gallons)
That would suggest drop tank hold of 3520 kg, compared to USAF F-16 of 3267 kg.
Internal fuel hold is, sadly, unknown. So i used other similar aircraft to approximate it. F16 holds 3200 kg, M2000 holds 3300 kg (similar because of the delta wing?), Gripen E holds 3400 kg.
Conservatively, I approximated 3200 kg for J-10's internal fuel hold.
Then I used ferry ranges of those planes, their total fuel holds and fuel consumption of their planes. Luckily, fuel consumption for Al-31 is known. Using all that, I approximated that if F-16C uses 1.86 kg of fuel for every km it crosses, J-10 should use between 1.9 and 2 kg for every km it crosses. Which finally brought me to final ferry range estimate of J-10A: between 3350 and 3550 km. I am probably wrong, of course, as this is just a crude analysis, but I think I am not more than 5-10% off.
So now that we have the actual ferry range figure for J10C, I will comment on my own post from awhile ago.
Stated ferry range is just 2950 km. Which is quite a bit less than expected.
Possible implications: J10C is cruising at higher thrust rating than either Su-27 (using similar class engine) or F-16 or Gripen. Why? I don't really know. Is it simply heavier? Could be. But that'd point to empty weight of perhaps full 10 tons or more.
Is the lift it generates fairly poor? For its weight, i mean. Compared to Su-27, that's no wonder, given the basically flying wing concept Su-27 uses. J-10 doesn't generate nearly as much body lift. (F-16 looks as if it generates more lift from body than J-10 as well) But is there a reason why canard-delta wing configuration would not generate as much lift per unit of weight as conventional configuration during the cruise segment of flight?
Maybe J10 doesn't hold that much fuel internally. That's another option. Instead of 3200 kg, what if it carries, say, 2800 kg? Or even less? But that'd put it closer to JF-17 when it comes to internal fuel. As per Kamra official webpage, JF-17 holds 2330 kg internally. And another 2330 kg in its tanks. For a total of 4660 kg. And Kamra states it has ferry range of 3480 km, quite respectable.
Su-27, with same if not worse engines when it comes to fuel efficiency, does 3700 km on 9.4 tons of fuel. That's 0.394 km per kg of fuel. It's probably a bit lighter per engine than J-10, though. 8.2 tons per engine. Compared to likely 9+ tons per engine for J-10. Plus, as said, Su-27 is likely to be more lift efficient. How much it would all influence cruise thrust level is hard to say, but 10% or more doesn't seem unreasonable. 10% alone would cut the 3700 figure to almost 3300 km.
There's one more option. Sometimes ferry range is given with drop tanks retained throughout flight. It's more rare way to state it, in my experience, but some manufacturers do it sometimes. If 2950 km range was ferry range with drop tanks retained, then the "true" ferry range would be, when modeled after F15C difference in tanks dropped/retained, 11% bigger. Or 3270 km. Of course, maybe it's not 11% but less. Still, there some possibility that the standard ferry range is actually around 3200 km. Give or take a hundred.
But ultimately, there is not enough data to really be sure. Nevertheless, the indications so far do point to J10A/B/C being designed for something else rather than range, with the plane family having fairly modest range for its tech level and size.