J-10 Thread IV
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
I remember at one point (1-2 years ago) Henri K suggested J10 production rate was 40-ish airframes per year. (J10B/C being 36-38, something like that). IF that was correct and IF it wasn't a temporary anomaly, then a 10% increase might yield 40+ J10C per year with another 7-8 S models.
More interestingly, such increase would then come at the same time as J-20 ramps up production. Seeing how they're both made by Chengdu, it suggests that production capacity for one model is not going to suffer because of the other. Google earth images of Chengdu plants also seems to corroborate that, as they keep increasing in area.
At the same time, we see continued J16 production and we know J15 will have to come on top of that as well for the second carrier. So it's not unreasonable to assume near future production rate of 60-ish airframes from Chengdu alone and 25+ airframes from SAC. Counting in bombers from Xian, that's over 90 airframes per year.
Why such ramp up in procurement rate when at the same time we're seeing few new units standing up, (basically just J15 units) while overall number of units seems to be set to fall? (with Q5 units getting disbanded without getting a new plane)
More interestingly, such increase would then come at the same time as J-20 ramps up production. Seeing how they're both made by Chengdu, it suggests that production capacity for one model is not going to suffer because of the other. Google earth images of Chengdu plants also seems to corroborate that, as they keep increasing in area.
At the same time, we see continued J16 production and we know J15 will have to come on top of that as well for the second carrier. So it's not unreasonable to assume near future production rate of 60-ish airframes from Chengdu alone and 25+ airframes from SAC. Counting in bombers from Xian, that's over 90 airframes per year.
Why such ramp up in procurement rate when at the same time we're seeing few new units standing up, (basically just J15 units) while overall number of units seems to be set to fall? (with Q5 units getting disbanded without getting a new plane)
The political prerogatives in Zhongnanhai have changed, I imagine. Don’t they still have a lot of turnover to cover with J-8s, J-7s, and JH-7s?
Yet there are already today some 1150 modern tactical combat planes, out of a total of 1700 or so. (That's without Q5, and I did not even count remaining su-27 as modern) So with 85 airframes per year, the remaining 550 planes could be produced in just 7 years. Okay, maybe original jh7 will need replacement by then as well, but that's 50 airframes.
Either this production rate would be semi-temporary, lasting for less than a decade, or China plans to increase its units. But if it's the latter, why disband the units currently holding Q5?
Either this production rate would be semi-temporary, lasting for less than a decade, or China plans to increase its units. But if it's the latter, why disband the units currently holding Q5?
Perhaps it’s because the Q-5s are not just obsolete planes, but obsolete roles. Also, I imagine that by that year 7 they’ll have to start replacing the first J-10s and J-11s too. Furthermore, if they switch production from 4th gen fighters to 5th gen fighters I imagine that excess production capacity might convert to fewer airplanes in the transition, given the greater complexities involved.
China is simply following the global norms of military modernization. The air force in China is getting more high tech but is also getting smaller. The cost of buying, operating and maintaining a J-16 or a J-10C is many times higher than a Q-5 or a J-7. But the capasity of those planes are also many times higher than the Q-5 and J-7 as well. Its a trade off of quality over quantity.
Impressive if true and even more impressive and surprising - but esp. for me and my hobby almost annoying - that we lost completely the track to follow what's the current production status. CAC MUST be already well withing Batch 03 if not close to Batch 04 ... and the final image we know is something like from February 2017.
The crackdown on leaks really made counting almost impossible the last 3-4 years...
USAF has lowered their numbers in 1990s and 2000s, as cold war numbers got smaller. But at around 2010, they stopped downsizing, despite f22 and incoming f35. Since then, their numbers are steady. In 2002 they had 2551 tactical combat planes. In 2010 they had 1967. In 2016 they had 1970. (numbers as per Air Force Magazine Almanacs)
Q5 may have an obsolete role but basic flight training and basic maintenance knowledge is still worth something. Airbase and whole infrastructure is worth something. If one is going to increase numbers in a few years, why not keep those crews and infrastructure for a few years, rather than starting from scratch later on?
I don't imagine first j10s will need replacements in 2025. By then, they'll barely be 20 years old. If old j7s and j8 are soldiering on, some being over 30 years in service, i find it highly unlikely j10 will have a shorter life span. As for J11a, they're allegedly beefed up versions compared to original su27, which might mean they have a longer lifespan. (possibly the reason why some of the earliest su27 have been retired years ago while others still soldier on, as the first batch was made to a different structural standard and later batches were beefed up upon PLAAF's request) Even so, in 2025 they would be just 25 or so years old.
Q5 may have an obsolete role but basic flight training and basic maintenance knowledge is still worth something. Airbase and whole infrastructure is worth something. If one is going to increase numbers in a few years, why not keep those crews and infrastructure for a few years, rather than starting from scratch later on?
I don't imagine first j10s will need replacements in 2025. By then, they'll barely be 20 years old. If old j7s and j8 are soldiering on, some being over 30 years in service, i find it highly unlikely j10 will have a shorter life span. As for J11a, they're allegedly beefed up versions compared to original su27, which might mean they have a longer lifespan. (possibly the reason why some of the earliest su27 have been retired years ago while others still soldier on, as the first batch was made to a different structural standard and later batches were beefed up upon PLAAF's request) Even so, in 2025 they would be just 25 or so years old.
All PLAAF watchers on Chinese BBS have said the crews were relocated to other bases, not demobilised. Their expertise is retained. The infrastructure specific to Q-5s are, like the aircraft they serve, obsolete, so retirement for them is also appropriate.
Airframes are rated for certain number of flight hours. The number of years an aircraft remains in operation is calculated based on estimates of how much the plane is flown per year. It's quite obvious to PLA-watchers that early estimates of PLAAF and PLANAF pilot training hours are no longer realistic and it's likely the 4th and 5th-gen pilots fly just as much, if not more than their NATO counterparts. This, in turn, leads to fewer years before an aircraft has to be retired.