A personal guess on the first combat unit to have received J-10Cs is 43rd Regt at Huairen. The reasoning is as follows:
This conclusion assumes a couple of things including:
- Various formations were spotted rehearsing for the parade at Huairen including J-20s, J-16s, GX-aircraft, etc.
- J-10Cs along with H-6U were spotted both rehearsing and just flying around in general.
- It's likely that the J-10Cs and H-6U were also spotted at Huairen.
- However, unlike the J-20s and J-16s, zhang81zhang managed to get of the J-10C.
- This suggests the J-10Cs were not photographed during spontaneous rehearsals but were photographed during their regular landing/takeoffs from a permanent base.
- If Assumption (3) is correct, then the permanent base theorised in Point (5) would be the Huairen air base, which serves the 43rd Regiment currently identified to be flying J-10As.
I can't guarantee the veracity of the two assumptions but this could be a good springboard upon which to further estimate J-10C distributions.
- Zhang81zhang took the J-10C photos at the Huairen, the same place the J-20s and J-16s were spotted.
- The J-10Cs are permanently based at Huairen instead of being temporarily assigned for rehearsals like the other planes.
Huairen would be interesting, since it is indeed the 43rd AR/15th Ground Attack Division ... would make sense.
And at least he does not longer ps the serials.