J-10 Thread III (Closed to posting)

[no_name]

They could do it in steps, so when the older J-8 or J-7 needs to be retired, replace them with existing J-10s which as you said have a fair bit of years in them left, and the original J-10 spot can be filled with J-10B. This way the Air force would not grow in size except for new gen plane and carrier plane procurement.

 

[plawolf]

They could do it in steps, so when the older J-8 or J-7 needs to be retired, replace them with existing J-10s which as you said have a fair bit of years in them left, and the original J-10 spot can be filled with J-10B. This way the Air force would not grow in size except for new gen plane and carrier plane procurement.

Well the thing is, pilots also need to be considered. If you replace J7s and J8s by transferring existing J10s to those units, what are the pilots who were flying those J10s supposed to do?

The PLAAF is solving this issue to some degree by retiring a lot of their older pilots with their J7s and J8s instead of investing resources to qualify them for J10s or J11s, but there are only so many pilots who want to take an early retirement and many of those J7s and J8s will be unsafe to fly when their pilots still have decades of good flying years ahead of them.

Make no mistake, the PLAAF is not growing in total size, it is shrinking in fact, but the PLAAF is wary and loathed to trim numbers too much for fear that healthy muscle might be cut as well as fat.

 

[jackliu]

plawolf do you have any information on the training of PLAAF pilots? Do they get enough flying time these days come to the West?

 

[siegecrossbow]

plawolf do you have any information on the training of PLAAF pilots? Do they get enough flying time these days come to the West?

4th gen PLAAF pilots get an average of 200 hours per year. The average for the entire fighter force is around 180 due to the low lingering time of 3rd gen fighters like the J-8II and J-7. The stats are actually higher than those of Japanese and South Korean fighter pilots but still lower than those of U.S. pilots. I think the Israelis pilots have the highest number of annual flight hours (something like 240).

 

[Lion]

Is there really that much rivalry between the two companies? One of the criticisms of China is that because the government controls everything there's no competition thus does not help in advancing technology. It sounds to me it's just like what happens in the US between military contractors.

I think it got to do with china ever changing policy. U can see recent years they promote innovation and homegrown product. Becos, by being low cost manufacture and being a copy can only take u that far. With china ever rising labour cost, continue going the low cost manufacturing route will not continue the grown.

Shenyang aviation corps used to be the number one aviation corps in PRC. Plus all their strong connection to PLA makes them complacent.

 

[jackliu]

4th gen PLAAF pilots get an average of 200 hours per year. The average for the entire fighter force is around 180 due to the low lingering time of 3rd gen fighters like the J-8II and J-7. The stats are actually higher than those of Japanese and South Korean fighter pilots but still lower than those of U.S. pilots. I think the Israelis pilots have the highest number of annual flight hours (something like 240).

Thanks, and I bet they spend thousands of hours in the simulator.

 

[delft]

Well the thing is, pilots also need to be considered. If you replace J7s and J8s by transferring existing J10s to those units, what are the pilots who were flying those J10s supposed to do?

The PLAAF is solving this issue to some degree by retiring a lot of their older pilots with their J7s and J8s instead of investing resources to qualify them for J10s or J11s, but there are only so many pilots who want to take an early retirement and many of those J7s and J8s will be unsafe to fly when their pilots still have decades of good flying years ahead of them.

Make no mistake, the PLAAF is not growing in total size, it is shrinking in fact, but the PLAAF is wary and loathed to trim numbers too much for fear that healthy muscle might be cut as well as fat.

Redundant military pilots might transfer to civilian aviation. Chinese airlines have been hiring US air line pilots.

 

[asif iqbal]

It is perhaps Pakistan, who would look to acquire advance military hardware, in fewer numbers. Where Pakistan faces overwhelming enemy strength, indian air force would have, by 2025, around (290) Su-30MK Flankers, (250) PAK-FA Stealth Fighters, (200) Rafale F3s, (50) Mirage-2000s, (60) MiG-29 UPGs and may be, just maybe (200) LCA Tejas. That's a 1100 fighter fleet in total, which Pakistan would only be countering with (40) J-10Bs, (70) F-16s and (250) JF-17 Thunders. That's a quarter of the force (360) strength that they would have to counter the indians and which is applies to Pakistan, simply because we don't have the resources to build up a proportionately adequate force that one would require to deal with the indians.

Under ideal conditions, a proportionate force to counter an adversary with over 1100 fighters in its fleet, would be at least a force of 500 fighters.

So that's the point I was trying to make, PLA-Wolf!

Bro i think its not all about numbers game, down time, operational readiness, turn around time, sorite rate, logistics, etc etc all play a fundamental part in war, like Murphys law goes, what can go wrong will go wrong, India cant deploy all its assets at once, just look at thier attrition rate in peacetime let alone war time

lets go back to Kargil War, IAF was loaded with assets but how many of them could conduct high altitude bombing? infact how many IAF could put bombs on target? none, thats why we took the high ground and peaks and cut the Indian logistics in half where 700,000 men were cut off from thier supply routes, if we waited 2 more weeks those men would have fallen

even the high fast flying Mig25 was not able to get recon, and it wasnt until Israel delivered the targeting pods for the Indian Mirage 2000 and France supplied the bombs did India start its bombing missions, and it was after Kargil that India started buying Israeli UAVs liek no tommorow

Pakistan has very little strategic depth, the air war will be decided at close qaurters, WVR and dogfighting, in that zone IAF numerical advantage will amount to nothing, for a attack you need 3:1 advantage, if Pakistan has 2 x Sqaudrons of J10B thats 36 aircraft they could hold off the top end of the IAF, i.e. Rafale and Su30MKI, these are good odds for any Pakistani pilot, its the Naval war that i would be concerned about, by JF17 equipped with C802 will solve that fine!

 

[Dizasta1]

Fair points, but there are a few other things to consider. Firstly, the PLAAF already have a substantial 3th generation fleet. I have long since lost count, but I think the PLAAF and PLANAF together should have around 400 Flankers and maybe 200 odd J10A/S. Add in another 250 or some JH7/JH7As and that's quite a considerable force without even counting the hundreds of late blk J7s and J8s.

I would respectfully disagree with you on that PLA-Wolf, as I wouldn't count the J-7s and J-8s as being of any benefit for the PLAAF, against an adversary-group which has the likes of F-15E Strike Eagles, F-16C/D Blk-50 Falcons, F-2 (Jap-Vipers), F-15K Slam Eagles and of course, the F-22A Raptors, in it's ranks. That's over 600 fighter-jets (J-7s & J-8s), which wouldn't even put a dent in the adversary's fighter-fleet. Also worth noting is that the F-15K's radar, The APG-63(V)1 radar has common digital processing equipment with the APG-63(V)3 AESA radar, and thus is upgradable to an AESA radar via antenna replacement.

The USAF's F-15E Strike Eagles and F-15C Eagles are now equipped with AESA radars, or at least a good part of the fleet has achieved the AESA capability. Most of the units with AESA radar, are strategically deployed in the Pacific Region, which includes Hawaii, Japan and South Korea. This, added to the fact that USAF has also deployed F-22A Raptors in Alaska and Hawaii, and a contingent of F-22A Raptors is currently deployed at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan. This sort of strategic deployment of fleet's fighter-jets, equipped with AESA radars and Stealth Fighters, doesn't bode well for the likes of J-7s and J-8s.

A calculated estimate puts around 90-100 AESA radar equipped F-15Es/Cs and F-22A Raptors, in the Pacific region. This is not including the South Korean F-15Ks, F-16 Blk-50s and the Japanese F-15Js and F-2s. The combined strength of America, South Korea and Japan puts around 600-700 Gen-4++ fighter-jets, pitted against China and Russia. And that does not look good on paper, where neither China or Russia have any or enough fighter-jets, equipped with AESA radars, or any Stealth Fighters, in the region.

So, my friend, I would not be counting the J-7s or J-8s in any category.

Assuming the J20 starts entering service around 2016-18, that they start J10B production tomorrow, and they continue to produce J11s and J10Bs at current rates and that's another 100-150 of each type added to the fleet to give a combined Flanker and J10 fleet of around 800-900 planes. Does the PLA really need another 350-450 J10Bs on top of all that?

To your question, I ask you this ....... Can the AESA radar be retrofitted on the J-10A's or Su-27SK/MKK/MK2's? If so, then I don't see the point of producing J-11Bs and J-10Bs, other than for export purposes. However, if these fighter-jets cannot have the AESA radars retrofitted on them, then China would have legitimate reason to develop an advance variant of the J-10 fighter-jet, and incorporate additional features such as the IRST, DSI, ADV-EW suite and a high-performance WS-10A Taihang engine. The same goes for the J-11B's as well, since both fighter-jets would form the backbone of the PLAAF's Gen-4+ fleet.

Having a high-performance AESA radar is so important for a modern air force, that one can see the evidence in the strategic deployment-pattern, in the Pacific region, of the United States Air Force.

Assuming the PLA ultimately gets 300-400 J20s and maybe 450-600 F60s, all the J7s and J8s are retired by then and total JH7 fleet goes up to 300 and stays at that level, you are looking at a total combat fleet of around 2,000 planes (assuming some of the earliest J11s and J10s are retired by then), maybe half of which are 5th gens. That's before we think about training aircraft like JL8s, JL9s and L15s, and in totality, that is also probably well beyond the PLA's budget. Remember that the PLA has a budget and the more J11s and J10s they buy now, odds are, the fewer J20s and F60s they can afford when they become available.

I have a question regarding this point ...... Why do air forces around the world have various types of fighter-jets/fighter-bombers in their fleet? Why not just one type, which would not only save a bucket load of money, but free the logistics support units of the headache in maintaining all different variants, types and configuration of aircraft? The answer is the requisite based on the strategic need and for China, the strategic need is AESA, Stealth, HOBS-WVR, ADV-BVR and above all, the thorough and professional training and high level of flight-hours for People's Liberation Army Air Force's fighter-pilots.

True that China is steadily on its way to having a large fleet of Stealth Fighters, like the J-20s and F-60s. However, that does not mean that the J-10B's and J-11B's don't have a role to play in the PLAAF. The J-10B and J-11B, when refined with AESA, IRST, HOBS-WVR, ADV-BVR, HMS, HP-Engines (FWS-10A) and DSI (J-10B), would represent a true modernization of the Chinese Air Force fighter-fleet. And when produced in sufficient numbers (700 of the J-10Bs & 500 of J-11Bs), would equate to the strategic re-balancing in the region. Having 1200 fighter-jets with AESA radar, facing the Pacific Ocean (not just South Korea, Japan, Australia and America), would ensure that there is a proportionate level of military strength in numbers, to redress the balance of power in the region.

The USAF might ultimately get most of the F35s promised, but even if they do, the USAF does not have the bases in the region to fly those fighters from, and the few bases they do have in range will be overwhelmed by cruise and ballistic missiles in the opening moments of any war that the more planes the USAF station there, the more they will loose on the ground. The US will be relying principally (if not exclusively) on naval aviation in any war with China. 300 J20s alone would probably be more than a match for them, add in all the other stuff and we are rapidly getting into overkill territory.

America has bases in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Australia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. All of these bases are in proximity to Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China.

The PLA does not need that many more 3rd gen fighters, what they have should be more than enough to maintain effective deterrence until the J20 and F60 start to come online in numbers. With that in mind, I think the PLA would be perfectly justified to feel that they could, and should just wait for the J20 to become operational before making large purchases.

People's Liberation Army Air Force must have enough Gen-4+ fighter-jets in its fleet, to afford the Chinese fighter-pilots a sufficient exposure to and proficiency of the fighter-jet type. Without sufficient exposure, flight-hours on the Gen-4+ fighterjet type, I do not that think it's justifiable or fair on the PLAAF fighter-pilots, to suddenly move on to the Gen-5 Stealth fighter-jet type. There should be a evolutionary transition, the fighter-pilots deserve to have, than an abrupt change in technology.

Besides, operating an adequate sized Gen-4+ fighter-jet fleet, alongside Gen-5 Stealth Aircraft, permits China to pick and choose on how many J-20s and F-60s it wants to build at any given point in time.

I foresee maybe 2-4 years more of fleet expansion as the PLA finally phase out all the J7s and J8s, and start to build up their carrier aviation fleets, but after that, new J11 and J10 production will mainly be for replacement of the earliest J11s and J10s. If they decide to do even that and depending on the progress of the J20 and F60. If the Chinese 5th gens progress smoothly, the PLA may well forgo buy more J11s and J10s for replacements and equip the regiments whose early blk J11s and J10s are due to be retired with J20s directly (or give them hand-me-down J11s and J10s from the first regiments to convert to J20s).

I look forward to that day! PLAN Aircraft Carriers with J-15s, AWACS aircraft and helos. But, J-10B and J-11B should be put through the paces of incorporating technologies like AESA, IRST, DSI, ADV-EW, HOBS-WVR, ADV-BVR, R-IFR and HP-Engines. Having such a fleet is in proportionately-sufficient numbers (700 J-10B & 500 J-11B), would not only be a healthy affordable option, but would also allow China to not put all of its eggs (Stealth) in one basket.

On the note of Stealth .... did you hear about the German Air Force - Euro Fighter, that shot-down the F-22A Raptor three times in WVR-Combat, during the recently concluded Red Flag exercises?? It's been the raving news this summer!! Oh and guess what ..... Euro-Fighter is a Gen-4++ fighter-jet!!!

Exactly, but when you do some quick maths, it looks like buying J10Bs in the kind of numbers you are suggesting would be going way beyond proportionate or necessary.

Not when those J-10Bs and J-11Bs are replacing J-10As, Su-27SKs, Su-30MKKs and Su-30MK2s.

Aye, but I somehow doubt that the IAF will be able to deploy all of it's 1,100 fighters against Pakistan if push really came down to shove. I can easily foresee a significant proportion, if not the majority of the IAF fleet being tied down on India's eastern boarder as the PLAAF deploys large forces to Tibet if war broke out between India and Pakistan.

I hope not, but that is what has happened in the previous three wars that Pakistan has fought against hindustan (india).

I can also easily see the PAF having way more than the 40 J10Bs on the books available for deployment if all out way breaks out with India, so I think the PAF might be able to fare much better than what the fanboys tend to assume.

Yes, I really hope that Pakistan Air Force manages to maintain a fleet that includes (150) J-10B, (250) JF-17s and (70) F-16s.

I think perhaps you might be letting your emotions color your judgement slightly. Sure, China buying hundreds of J10Bs would very much take the gloss (and bragging rights) off of India's recent decision to buy Rafales, however, the PLA does not really see India as a significant enough of a threat to warrant special treatment when defense procurement plans are concerned.

I didn't mean india on its own, posing any threat to China, rather in context where America, Japan, Australia and South Korea, are combining forces. That is how it has always been in the past. Be it WW2, the Persian Gulf War, the Serbian Conflict, the Iraq Invasion and Afghanistan Invasion. America has always gone in with allies and not alone! Even in the Korean War, America had South Korea, Britain, Japan and Australia formed the Allied Forces Pacific. So to, I must emphasize, that india shouldn't be looked at as a threat, on its own, cuz it is not. Rather, in combination with America, Britain, Japan, South Korea and Australia.

 

[Dizasta1]

Bro i think its not all about numbers game, down time, operational readiness, turn around time, sorite rate, logistics, etc etc all play a fundamental part in war, like Murphys law goes, what can go wrong will go wrong, India cant deploy all its assets at once, just look at thier attrition rate in peacetime let alone war time.

Absolutely correct! This is perhaps the reason why many of the world's top air force's are at the top!

lets go back to Kargil War, IAF was loaded with assets but how many of them could conduct high altitude bombing? infact how many IAF could put bombs on target? none, thats why we took the high ground and peaks and cut the Indian logistics in half where 700,000 men were cut off from thier supply routes, if we waited 2 more weeks those men would have fallen

That is a valid argument, however, you're looking at it in the perspective which includes Pakistan and india. There is a huge difference between the air force's of these countries. Where india may have the best fighter-jets like the Mirage-2000s, Jaguars, Flankers, Fulcrums, Floggers and superiority in numbers ...... there Pakistan has established excellence in logistics-support, maintenance-support and aircraft-serviceability. This is one of the main reasons why Pakistan Air Force, with just under 300 fighters, bombers, cargo-planes and reconnaissance-aircraft, was able to pound the living daylights outta indian Air Force, which had over 1000 fighters and support aircraft.

However, this discussion is not about Pakistan, it is about China and China's adversary is not india, rather it is America ...... and trust me when I say this, but America's record on logistics-support, aircraft-maintenance and aircraft-serviceability is way too superior and in a class of its own, when compared to india. In fact, india doesn't come in the same category of any of the top twenty air forces in the world, in terms of aircraft maintenance, serviceability and logistics support. So for China, numbers, proportionate to the enemy's strength, is very important.

Lest I remind you how the Soviets defeated Nazi-Germany, whose military hardware was unmatched and far superior to any of the Allied-Nations that were fighting WW2.

Even the high fast flying Mig25 was not able to get recon, and it wasnt until Israel delivered the targeting pods for the Indian Mirage 2000 and France supplied the bombs did India start its bombing missions, and it was after Kargil that India started buying Israeli UAVs liek no tommorow.

Well, guess what, they (india) now do have Israeli UAVs, Radars, Targeting-Pods and other stuff. We cannot go on forever banking on the enemy to make mistakes. Even the worst do learn from their mistakes.

Pakistan has very little strategic depth, the air war will be decided at close qaurters, WVR and dogfighting, in that zone IAF numerical advantage will amount to nothing, for a attack you need 3:1 advantage, if Pakistan has 2 x Sqaudrons of J10B thats 36 aircraft they could hold off the top end of the IAF, i.e. Rafale and Su30MKI, these are good odds for any Pakistani pilot, its the Naval war that i would be concerned about, by JF17 equipped with C802 will solve that fine!lets go back to Kargil War, IAF was loaded with assets but how many of them could conduct high altitude bombing? infact how many IAF could put bombs on target? none, thats why we took the high ground and peaks and cut the Indian logistics in half where 700,000 men were cut off from thier supply routes, if we waited 2 more weeks those men would have fallen.

Strategic depth doesn't count for squat, if a country is able to fortify and established layered defenses such as High-Altitude SAMs, Medium-Altitude SAMs, Long-Range Ground-Radars, Airborne Early Warning Radars, Air-Superiority Fighter-Jets and all of them are inter-operable, network-centralized.

When we speak of Pakistan, one has to understand, that in a full-blown war ..... number of fighter-jets, airborne radar aircraft, cargo-aircraft, spares, maintenance-factories/aircraft-manufacturing factories' defenses are going to determine who wins.

In war, one has to come to terms with the fact that losses will have to be absorbed and though our air force would have the ability to strike back at the enemy, the real question would not be so much of fire-power, rather of endurance and sustainability. For this reason alone, 40 J-10B's is certainly not going to cut it. In fact, having just 40 J-10B's for Pakistan, in a war, reminds me of the 1965 war, where Pakistan Air Force had just 12 F-104 Starfighters and under a 100 F-86 Sabers.

When counter-air offensives are carried out, the Air Marshal or Commanders have to accept the fact that not all the pilots and fighter-jets would return home. So if at every mission sent in to attack the enemy's bases incurs losses on our side, then how long do you think Pakistan would be able to sustain a war-fighting capability, before it realizes that the end is near and if we are going to loose, then we better start thinking about launching nukes!

No my friend, that is not how strategists plan to defend the country in a war.