Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)
- Thread starter phrozenflame
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Looks like, Israel's government decided to approve the ceasefire.
When all's said and done, I guess one thing that can be acknowledged is that PR is still not to be ignored in geopolitics. The course of the conflict had convinced many that the only valid worldview in geopolitics is that the strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they must. That all those college kids and unemployed folks protesting Israel were just pissing in the wind, while the Israelis with their bombs and American support could just do as they please.
But, Israel's incompetence in the information war caught up with it eventually. There's a reason Netanyahu made his "Sparta Speech," because beneath the facade of not a giving a damn what the world thought of the war he knew Israel was on the road to international isolation. Governments had to take a stand to appease constituencies that weren't going to sit idly by while Gazans starved and Israeli soldiers committed mass killings on an almost daily basis. And then of course the tipping point, when Israel alienated all the gulf monarchies with its reckless bombing of Qatar. When you've pissed off that many people, even the US could only do so much to salvage the diplomatic situation, so they were forced to act into pressuring Israel to accept a ceasefire.
An end to the fighting is welcome, but it's just a shame overall that after 100,000 people dead and outside of Israel scoring a major victory in dismantling Iran's axis of resistance, both sides with respect to Gaza itself are essentially going to be back to square one and perhaps will be back to fighting in a few years from now.
When all's said and done, I guess one thing that can be acknowledged is that PR is still not to be ignored in geopolitics. The course of the conflict had convinced many that the only valid worldview in geopolitics is that the strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they must. That all those college kids and unemployed folks protesting Israel were just pissing in the wind, while the Israelis with their bombs and American support could just do as they please.
But, Israel's incompetence in the information war caught up with it eventually. There's a reason Netanyahu made his "Sparta Speech," because beneath the facade of not a giving a damn what the world thought of the war he knew Israel was on the road to international isolation. Governments had to take a stand to appease constituencies that weren't going to sit idly by while Gazans starved and Israeli soldiers committed mass killings on an almost daily basis. And then of course the tipping point, when Israel alienated all the gulf monarchies with its reckless bombing of Qatar. When you've pissed off that many people, even the US could only do so much to salvage the diplomatic situation, so they were forced to act into pressuring Israel to accept a ceasefire.
An end to the fighting is welcome, but it's just a shame overall that after 100,000 people dead and outside of Israel scoring a major victory in dismantling Iran's axis of resistance, both sides with respect to Gaza itself are essentially going to be back to square one and perhaps will be back to fighting in a few years from now.
The Axis of Resistance has become the Axis of Defeat.
Assad has been defeated. A leadership with deep ties to Tel Aviv takes over Syria.
Hezbollah has been completely neutralized, no longer posing any threat from the north, facing critical internal opposition that could shake its political position within Lebanon.
Iraq remains contained and under American occupation.
Hamas, while not completely defeated, has suffered immense defeats, including the deaths of its leaders.
Iran lost several generals and was partially neutralized of its offensive capabilities, in addition to having its nuclear program delayed by several months.
Bibi is the great winner of all this. He changed the region and the situation in Israel, neutralizing all direct threats against Israel. He was not arrested, and he also enjoyed the full support of Republicans and MAGA groups in the US and around the world. Despite being defeated in the propaganda sphere, he changed Israel's strategic framework and ensured the security of his state.
Assad has been defeated. A leadership with deep ties to Tel Aviv takes over Syria.
Hezbollah has been completely neutralized, no longer posing any threat from the north, facing critical internal opposition that could shake its political position within Lebanon.
Iraq remains contained and under American occupation.
Hamas, while not completely defeated, has suffered immense defeats, including the deaths of its leaders.
Iran lost several generals and was partially neutralized of its offensive capabilities, in addition to having its nuclear program delayed by several months.
Bibi is the great winner of all this. He changed the region and the situation in Israel, neutralizing all direct threats against Israel. He was not arrested, and he also enjoyed the full support of Republicans and MAGA groups in the US and around the world. Despite being defeated in the propaganda sphere, he changed Israel's strategic framework and ensured the security of his state.
Totally wrong reading of the situation. Israel has been exposed as a much weaker country when Iranian missiles caused massive destruction and not even US and combined western defenses were not able to stop those missiles.
Iran has been proven to be resilient to even terrible decapitation strikes. The Iranian public proved to be highly patriotic. Irans missile arsenal proved their worth.
And their resilience and strategy paid off as they were able to get a ceasefire without any concessions.
Hezbollah is alive and regaining strength. Their core fighting strength is intact and they are gaining new recruits and new missiles.
Syria under Assad was not much of a threat to israel anyway. But syria under al qaeda is completely unpredictable and could go anywhere. Most likely it will be extremely anti israel over time.
Turkey and most of the gulf arabs have gone anti Israel. Pakistan has entered the region with its nukes. Iran now has support from the gulf arabs thanks to israeli attacks.
Seems like pointless tactical attacks by israel caused them massive strategic defeats in the region
Hamas and Hezbollah are screwed while Syria is gone. Sure. But the long term decline of the US will lead Israel to a dead end anyway. Iran proved you can wreck Israel even with conventionally armed rockets alone. If Israel does ethnically cleanse its neighbourhood for Greater Israel there will be even less resistance to nuking it all eventually.
Whatever victories Israel wins against its neighbors, its security is never guaranteed so long as the Palestinian question still exists. Yes, Hamas lost thousands of fighters and several leaders, but its a guerilla movement where losses are borderline immaterial and even expected. What it has now, are 2 million Gazan citizens returning home, all of whom have lost their homes and at least one family member/friend. As always, the vast majority just want to rebuild their lives, but even if just 1% wanted revenge that's 20,000 new recruits to Hamas. And let's be real, I doubt only 1% of Gazans want revenge against Israel after this war.
If Netanyahu was ever going to settle the Palestinian question he had to go all out on Gaza and the West Bank. He had the popular support for it, with even the most moderate Israeli being radicalized by October 7th to the point where they believed Warsaw Ghettoing Palestine was a necessary evil. But in the end, his recklessness and the mounting international pressure forced him to walk back, because unlike Russia Israel is not a country that can afford total isolation. Which just goes to show, as effective as the Israeli military is and no matter what kind of support ordinary Israelis have for hard measures, they are still beholden to PR from the international community.
Above all, as we've seen from the internet and I'm sure its even worse on the ground, October 7th awakened this almost collective sense of zealoutry amongst Israelis and even the diaspora. A sense of righteous outrage over the attack and a sense of global victimization with so called "anti-Semites" popping up on every corner. This mindset is unlikely to subside soon, especially since this ceasefire brings both sides back to square one. Such attitudes have ramifications for Israel's non-Palestinian Arab population. Less we forget, even if Israeli Arabs were united with Israeli Jews in this war, the previous conflict before October 7th saw them rioting in the streets against Israeli Jews over discrimination. Who's to say with the war over, Israeli Jews won't turn their anger on them and further exacerbate attitudes of alienation?
So here we have the great tragedy. Israel is too powerful and too proud to be defeated, but beholden to global opinion so that there are limits to how far they can take things. Meaning perhaps even for the rest of the lives of people participating on this forum, the Middle East will continue to be a perpetual killing field.
By the time of the ceasefire they were already halfway through conquering what was left of Gaza city.
It was global opinion that was quickly turning into diplomatic isolation, bombing the gulf monarchies was the final straw which forced the two most influential outside parties, the US and UAE, to tell Israel to cut it out. Israel's a country of 9 million people in the desert, they can't afford to be cut off from the world unlike Russia.
Buying time for round 2. Gaza is uninhabitable. Cease fighting there, Gazans could die off on their own in current situation. Round 2 should be in West Bank. Heifers only live so long, time is running out.