Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

obj 705A

obj 705A

Junior Member
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CrazyHorse said:
I’ve heard that Syria wants the Golan
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Syria will not do anything, a third of their country is currently occupied by joint Kurdish/American troops and they haven't done much about it, the Golan was under Israeli occupation for decades and Syria did nothing about it. I believe Syria gave up on the Golan heights along time ago and only talk about in the media because ofcourse it is occupied territory.

CrazyHorse said:
This might be something that could get hezbollah more involved, since they are quite dependent on them for various things.
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Even though Hezbollah depends on Iran and is a close ally of Iran however they are not some puppets of Iran as some people claim Hezbollah to be. Hezbollah will not start a full scale war with Israel thus subjecting Lebanon to massive Gaza like destruction unless Israel itself intiates the war on Lebanon.

Whatever response that comes out of Iran it will not be anything major or ground breaking, it will be a muted response. Probably they will target either the American consulate in Northern Iraq or the embassy in Baghdad with a couple of rockets fired by their local Iraqi allies, these rockets would probably just kill a bodyguard or a janitor who is probably a local Iraqi guy at the consulate/embassy gate but we will not hear about any American diplomats dead.
 
_killuminati_

_killuminati_

Senior Member
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obj 705A said:
A very embarasing & dangerous moment for Iran, their consulate was flattened in broad daylight by Israel. There are reports that all the Iranian diplomats in the building are dead. Expect the Iranian response to be similar to their response to the Soleimani assassination, they will fire some missiles at northen Iraq or at Kurdish areas elsewhere.
This is what happens when you show weakness. The enemy will just push more and more.
Edit: another possible response from Iran would be to tell it's allies in Iraq to target the American embassy in Iraq or something.
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It seems to me the US has always been attempting to lure Iran into conducting a major attack on US/Israel in the region (with whatever true/false justification) just so the US can retaliate directly in Iran with a major operation. While Iran otoh has been trying it's level best not to conduct a direct attack for this very reason of avoiding a direct operation on it's territory by the US.

Israel has attacked Iran in the past on Iranian territory but Iran has not reciprocated in kind despite possessing the capability (i.e. with Iranian missiles).

Part of the problem is Saudi Arabia giving access to and housing American assets in it's territory.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
eprash said:
Why isn't Iran detonating a Nuke?, Don't they have every piece in order to build one?
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Potentially, but the downsides would far outweigh the benefits for them at present. If they do have enough weapons grade material for a bomb test, that’s about their entire stockpile. They won’t have enough left to build a big enough arsenal to achieve credible deterrence, especially since Israel has BMD shields and US naval BMD shields. They might get lucky and one of their very few warheads gets through, but the odds would be massively against them, and Israel will probably take that risk to permanently erasing Iran from the face of the earth as far as a functioning country goes if they did a nuke test now.

Iran has make a grave strategic miscalculation in my view. They have shown weakness to Israel when the whole Gaza thing kicked off by not supporting the Palestinians even to the minimal token standards everyone expected. That has emboldened Israel, who have been pushing harder and harder to get a rise out of Iran since.

Looking back, I think Israel fully expected and was actually counting on Iran ordering Hezbollah to open up a second front early on in the war. That would have forced America’s hand in deploying troops directly in defence of Israel.

While the failure of the Iranian and Hezbollah leadership to step up to the plate has left Israel isolated and cost them deeply, it has also forced Israel to seek to a direct conflict with Iran as a means of dragging the American ‘lifeguard’ into the water to save their own drowning arse.

If Iran still doesn’t rise to the bait after this attack, I think Israel will either do a false flag to blame Iran or just attack Iran directly, for example by starting to target Iranian nuclear facilities citing ‘credible intelligence’ of an imminent test/attack.
 
obj 705A

obj 705A

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ember said:
What would China do if Israel bombed their embassy in Damascus?
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There is no reason why Israel would do that so an attack on a Chinese embassy will never happen.

However if you are asking what would China do in a purely hypothetical scenario if their embassy is attacked.. Well the proper response would be to retaliate in kind. That is if a Chinese diplomat is killed then an Israeli diplomat would have to be killed. Bullies only understand the language of strength, if you show weakness they will just push for more. the burden of de-escalation should be on the ones who started it not on the victim. A victim should not turn the other cheek after being slapped.
Historicaly when the US bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. the Chinese didn't retaliate in kind because they were biding their time to grow larger. China was just starting to build itself up so it was unwise to retaliate in kind to the US. this time things are different, the Chinese military of 2024 is nothing like that of the nineties. No one will dare repeat the stunt of 1999 against a Chinese embassy.
 
G

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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eprash said:
Why isn't Iran detonating a Nuke?, Don't they have every piece in order to build one?
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There is a Fatah in Iran against developing nuclear weapons and they are signatories of the NPT. You would assume given Iran's connections with North Korea they would be fully capable of developing a nuke if they wanted to though.

plawolf said:
Iran has make a grave strategic miscalculation in my view. They have shown weakness to Israel when the whole Gaza thing kicked off by not supporting the Palestinians even to the minimal token standards everyone expected. That has emboldened Israel, who have been pushing harder and harder to get a rise out of Iran since.
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That's the thing. People think Iran is a major support of Hamas because of Western propaganda. But that isn't true. Hamas isn't Shia. They are affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. In the Syrian war you had Hamas fighting Hezbollah. Hamas was fighting on the side of the "moderate rebels" and its fighters were regularly flown to Israeli hospitals for treatment. While Hezbollah was fighting on the side of the Syrian government.

So why should Hezbollah, or Iran for that matter, stick their necks out too much to help Hamas in the first place. They are just helping them because of their common dislike for Israel.

plawolf said:
If Iran still doesn’t rise to the bait after this attack, I think Israel will either do a false flag to blame Iran or just attack Iran directly, for example by starting to target Iranian nuclear facilities citing ‘credible intelligence’ of an imminent test/attack.
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And how would they do this exactly? When they attacked Iraq they went over Jordanian airspace and they needed a mid air refuel. Would they go over Iraq as well this time? Another refuel? And you think the Iraqi government wouldn't warn the Iranians first?

Besides Iran has Rezonans radars. They would detect any Israeli attack in time.

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