The_Zergling
Junior Member
I'm not sure about the reliability of this news source, but it seems believable.
It's interesting, depressing, and totally predictable that Israel would consult the US and not the supposedly empowered Iraqi government regarding the use of IRAQI air space.
Back in Desert Storm when Israel was getting hit by Scuds they refrained from retaliating at the US's request because if they had the whole region arguably would have gone up in war. (Starting with "neutral" Jordan) If they do indeed bomb Iran now then what has been going on for some time will look like Disney World.
On a side note, the Scuds fired in the Gulf War are a good example of the resurrection hypothesis in political science, something that is eerily paralleled by the portrayal of Iran nowadays. Saddam Hussein was regarded as another Hitler by George H.W. Bush, casting him in the eyes of the American public as a major menace to world peace. Right or wrong, demonizing Saddam may have actually made him more dangerous and ensured his temporary political survival. If Hussein believed that the US was committed to marching to Baghdad and overthrowing, then he was unintentionally encouraged to take great risks to resurrect himself politically. A particular Scud fired at Israel illustrates his strategy.
First off, the missile was remarkable in several aspects. First off unlike the other missiles launched by Iraq at Israel, this wasn't aimed at a population center. This is remarkable because only by aiming at a population center could the Iraqis have hoped to gain the terror advantage the Scuds provided. Additionally, the missile carried no payload. While there were no explosives onboard later examinations stated that it was not a dud. Finally, the missile (unlike the other Scuds used in the Gulf War) had a concrete casing warhead, which was designed for chemical or biological weapons, though none were used.
The plausible inference was that the missile was a signal from Hussein. Basically he was warning the US and allies that if they marched to Baghdad to overthrow him he was prepared to up the antes by using WMD against Israel. Since it was widely speculated that the Israelis would retaliate with nukes... this obviously had uncomfortable implications. A day later H.W. Bush called for a ceasefire and negotiated a settlement of the war on terms relatively favorable to the Iraqis considering they had been utterly defeated on the battlefield.
In a sense, the US demonizing Hussein may have inadvertently helped him, at least domestically. Given his past record of dangerous behavior, he had the credibility in his threat to engage in unconventional warfare. Having been left no way out of the war (at least not one ensuring political or even physical survival, given that the agreement posed by the US for him to go into exile was unlikely to go through given that he was portrayed as a demon), he dangerously but effectively raised the stakes by sending the signal that he was prepared to escalate and possibly provoke nuclear war.
Pushing leaders to the point where they need to resurrect themselves is a risky strategy. While demonizing an adversary helps mobilize political support for the use of force, it also motivates the foe to try harder to win. It also makes negotiations unlikely.
We see these things acted out over and over again...
It's interesting, depressing, and totally predictable that Israel would consult the US and not the supposedly empowered Iraqi government regarding the use of IRAQI air space.
Back in Desert Storm when Israel was getting hit by Scuds they refrained from retaliating at the US's request because if they had the whole region arguably would have gone up in war. (Starting with "neutral" Jordan) If they do indeed bomb Iran now then what has been going on for some time will look like Disney World.
On a side note, the Scuds fired in the Gulf War are a good example of the resurrection hypothesis in political science, something that is eerily paralleled by the portrayal of Iran nowadays. Saddam Hussein was regarded as another Hitler by George H.W. Bush, casting him in the eyes of the American public as a major menace to world peace. Right or wrong, demonizing Saddam may have actually made him more dangerous and ensured his temporary political survival. If Hussein believed that the US was committed to marching to Baghdad and overthrowing, then he was unintentionally encouraged to take great risks to resurrect himself politically. A particular Scud fired at Israel illustrates his strategy.
First off, the missile was remarkable in several aspects. First off unlike the other missiles launched by Iraq at Israel, this wasn't aimed at a population center. This is remarkable because only by aiming at a population center could the Iraqis have hoped to gain the terror advantage the Scuds provided. Additionally, the missile carried no payload. While there were no explosives onboard later examinations stated that it was not a dud. Finally, the missile (unlike the other Scuds used in the Gulf War) had a concrete casing warhead, which was designed for chemical or biological weapons, though none were used.
The plausible inference was that the missile was a signal from Hussein. Basically he was warning the US and allies that if they marched to Baghdad to overthrow him he was prepared to up the antes by using WMD against Israel. Since it was widely speculated that the Israelis would retaliate with nukes... this obviously had uncomfortable implications. A day later H.W. Bush called for a ceasefire and negotiated a settlement of the war on terms relatively favorable to the Iraqis considering they had been utterly defeated on the battlefield.
In a sense, the US demonizing Hussein may have inadvertently helped him, at least domestically. Given his past record of dangerous behavior, he had the credibility in his threat to engage in unconventional warfare. Having been left no way out of the war (at least not one ensuring political or even physical survival, given that the agreement posed by the US for him to go into exile was unlikely to go through given that he was portrayed as a demon), he dangerously but effectively raised the stakes by sending the signal that he was prepared to escalate and possibly provoke nuclear war.
Pushing leaders to the point where they need to resurrect themselves is a risky strategy. While demonizing an adversary helps mobilize political support for the use of force, it also motivates the foe to try harder to win. It also makes negotiations unlikely.
We see these things acted out over and over again...
