Is the US shooting itself in the foot by banning Huawei?

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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
The choice is effectively between brand suicide and reduced 5G market share. I'm pretty sure Apple will choose the latter. There would be a tremendous assault on Apple's reputation from all aspects of the American media and government. US Customs could even be ordered to confiscate shipments of iPhones, simply because of how rabid the US national security establishment would become.

Apple future is China there is no other market the size of China while in US apple face resistant.due to high price and lack of innovation. They are in the jam right now their choice is abyss or deep blue sea None of them are good choice
I can see the beginning of the end of Apple both of them are bad choice specially with accelerating of Huawei new model roll out It create a buzz that once belong to Apple. They are one pony trick.

At one time Samsung market share in China is 20-30% now they are less than 1%
 

Icmer

Junior Member
Registered Member
Apple future is China there is no other market the size of China while in US apple face resistant.due to high price and lack of innovation. They are in the jam right now their choice is abyss or deep blue sea None of them are good choice
I can see the beginning of the end of Apple both of them are bad choice specially with accelerating of Huawei new model roll out It create a buzz that once belong to Apple. They are one pony trick.

At one time Samsung market share in China is 20-30% now they are less than 1%

In the choice between the US market and Chinese market for Apple, Apple will pick the US. The resistance Apple faces in the US pales in comparison to China. Apple has captured the youth market in NA by over 90%, and has strongly maintained customer loyalty and market share in high-income countries (mainly CANZUK and Japan). Yet Apple still has prestige advantage in China, so it's unlikely that their market share will ever dip to Samsung levels. The Chinese government is not interested in banning luxury products, no matter how offensive or degraded their image becomes. There will always be millions of tuhao who buy iPhones, Dolce & Gabbana, and Canada Goose - and no one will stop them. Apple net profits won't dip into the red anytime soon, though their stock price might see large drops.
 
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Icmer

Junior Member
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Also worth noting that Apple still takes in 85-90% of global smartphone industry profits due to their premium prices, which plenty of people are still happy to accept. Barring iPhones, they still have wearables, such as AirPods and Apple Watches - which have both seen strong growth in recent years.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
In the choice between the US market and Chinese market for Apple, Apple will pick the US. The resistance Apple faces in the US pales in comparison to China. Apple has captured the youth market in NA by over 90%, and has strongly maintained customer loyalty and market share in high-income countries (mainly CANZUK and Japan). Yet Apple still has prestige advantage in China, so it's unlikely that their market share will ever dip to Samsung levels. The Chinese government is not interested in banning luxury products, no matter how offensive or degraded their image becomes. There will always be millions of tuhao who buy iPhones, Dolce & Gabbana, and Canada Goose - and no one will stop them. Apple net profits won't dip into the red anytime soon, though their stock price might see large drops.

Appe maintain their market in US because of duopoly supported by state intervention But with no innovation and high price why should customer by new model which is rehash of the old one?
The shine has gone our of Apple since Job death.

In China last year their sale drop by 25% and their market share is only 12% . There is always insecure people who would like to show off. It is confirmed by market survey Most apple buyer in China are high school graduate or blue collar worker out to impress their peer of girl friend

The better off and moneyed customer buy Huawei these days. Just like everybody in SEA see people lining up or camp out in Singapore to get the chance of buying Huawei phone. It sold out before lunch The same thing happened in Paris and any other European debut
Huawei Penetration in European market is high and getting higher With only NA and Canada you think Apple can maintain that high stock market price?
Even in US they loss sale because most people hold on to their phone longer make sense why shelling hundred of dollar for minor improvement ?

And come 2020 with no 5 G phone do you expect apple to maintain their market share? I doubt it.Loyalty only go sofar. Apple just have to look into their own history They invented PC but it is Microsoft who has lion share of PC
 
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Icmer

Junior Member
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Appe maintain their market in US because of duopoly supported by state intervention But with no innovation and high price why should customer by new model which is rehash of the old one?
The shine has gone our of Apple since Job death.

iMessage and Snapchat continue to hold NA and CANZUK consumers hostage. A 93% usage share among people younger than 25 is nothing to sneeze at.

In China last year their sale drop by 25% and their market share is only 12% . There is always insecure people who would like to show off. It is confirmed by market survey Most apple buyer in China are high school graduate or blue collar worker out to impress their peer of girl friend

The better off and moneyed customer buy Huawei these days.

I'm well-aware. But those less-educated/insecure people still number in the millions, and are not an insignificant percentage. Apple will definitely never drop to the 1-4% share of Samsung for that reason. In addition, Apple will continue to earn profits from its online services. Although Apple market share as measured by annual sales and shipments has been decreasing markedly, their actual usage share has been holding steady as Chinese consumers hold onto their previous generation iPhones longer than for owners of other devices. Since the App Store charges heavy developer fees, Apple still has a large avenue of profits from China.

Just like everybody in SEA see people lining up or camp out in Singapore to get the chance of buying Huawei phone. It sold out before lunch The same thing happened in Paris and any other European debut
Huawei Penetration in European market is high and getting higher With only NA and Canada you think Apple can maintain that high stock market price?

Europeans largely use WhatsApp, so they are less beholden to the Apple ecosystem. SEA, India, and other emerging markets have already been lost causes for Apple for a long time. They were never able to gain a foothold in these regions in the first place. And I never said they would be able to maintain their stock market valuation.

And come 2020 with no 5 G phone do you expect apple to maintain their market share? I doubt it

I never said they would maintain their market share, only that their overall net profit won't turn negative/dip red anytime soon. Apple is quite diversified and has a larger safety cushion to fall back on than nearly every other manufacturer.

Usage share sources:
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Icmer

Junior Member
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Even in US they loss sale because most people hold on to their phone longer make sense why shelling hundred of dollar for minor improvement ?

They will have to buy a new phone eventually. Apple is very well-versed at manipulating conformity/peer pressure on consumers. That is why the iPhone X/XS generation came out with such a distinctive notched look, along with AirPods and the Apple Watch. They could've gone with the unobstructed Mi Mix design, the circular Moto 360/Huawei Watch, or less obnoxiously protruding earbuds - but they didn't in order to influence consumer trends and appeal to their superficiality and desire to conform. There is also the extremely juvenile, but very impactful green/blue bubble issue with iMessage. US and CANZUK consumers have proven to be stubbornly loyal to Apple time and time again. It also helps that these countries will lag in full 5G implementation, so a 2020 release deadline is less pressing. US consumers who bought the X/XS generation of iPhones won't be switching so soon either, as the performance benefits of early 5G will be marginal and iPhones have exceptional lifespans (measured as typically 3 years) compared to other manufacturer devices (1.5 years).

Loyalty only go sofar. Apple just have to look into their own history They invented PC but it is Microsoft who has lion share of PC

It's interesting that you bring up Microsoft, as they largely rely on Windows licensing fees, cloud apps/services for businesses, and Office software. Apple is also attempting to leverage its software ecosystem to be their main profit driver in the future. Their walled garden is more effective than any other, that's for sure.
 

Icmer

Junior Member
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The Chinese government is not interested in banning luxury products, no matter how offensive or degraded their image becomes. There will always be millions of tuhao who buy iPhones, Dolce & Gabbana, and Canada Goose - and no one will stop them.

Here is an example:

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Remember that ‘Chinese boycott’ of Canada Goose down jackets because of Meng Wanzhou? Revenue numbers show it didn’t happen, with sales rising, and forecasts up
  • Despite a December call for Chinese buyers to spurn Canada Goose after the arrest of Huawei’s CFO in Vancouver, sales climbed 50 per cent in Q4 2018
  • Revenue forecasts have been increased compared to November’s predictions – but Canada Goose stock tanked on Thursday on the back of weak US retail data
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Published: 2:06am, 15 Feb, 2019
Updated: 12:15pm, 15 Feb, 2019

Last quarter, sales climbed 50 per cent to C$399.3 million (US$301 million), topping the C$360 million average of analysts’ estimates.

Those numbers appear to show that calls for a Chinese boycott of Canada Goose jackets in the wake of the arrest of Huawei executive Sabrina Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver on December 1 have fallen flat.

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However, US shares of the Toronto-based company tanked in New York on Thursday amid a rout in retail stocks after government data showed retail sales in the US unexpectedly dropped in December.

The firm remains optimistic about its Chinese expansion plans.


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People queue outside the newly opened flagship store of Canadian luxury parka maker Canada Goose in the Sanlitun district of Beijing on December 30. Photo: Reuters

Despite calls for the boycott on Chinese websites and social media, Chinese shoppers lined up in the cold outside Canada Goose’s downtown Beijing store when it opened in late December.

CEO Dani Reiss said the country name still resonates well in China and elsewhere.

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Canada Goose’s partnership with Alibaba’s online Tmall has proven the “right way” to sell his coats to Chinese shoppers, Reiss said. Canada Goose is already a top-selling brand in its category on the platform, despite only being available for just over a month, he said.

Alibaba owns the South China Morning Post.

bf7c6366-307f-11e9-80ef-0255f1ad860b_1320x770_121534.jpg

Parkas hang on display at a new Canada Goose store in Montreal, Canada, in November 2018. Photo: Bloomberg

“There’s a lot of noise out there in the headlines, but as you see in our results, we continue to grow our business significantly, and you see that in China and all of our geographies,” Reiss said. “We’re just getting started in China.”

The outlook could help assuage concerns about the company’s expansion in China, where the opening of the Beijing flagship store was delayed two weeks in December amid escalating tensions with Canada.

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“We can’t control politicians,” Reiss said in an interview Thursday morning. “We’re really happy with our Chinese business plan and the way we plan to approach it. It’s been executed really well.”

Canada Goose said Thursday that the forecast includes the establishment of its country office in Greater China to “lead market development efforts.”

The company had made a splashy entry into Greater China in November with the opening of a Hong Kong store, just before the Huawei affair. The company also opened stores in cities including Montreal and Vancouver last quarter, helping boost direct-to-consumer sales as the weather grew colder.

55195dd8-3081-11e9-80ef-0255f1ad860b_1320x770_121534.JPG

People walk past an advertisement near the newly opened flagship store of Canadian luxury parka maker Canada Goose, in Sanlitun area of Beijing on December 31. Photo: Reuters

The results show that analysts’ initial scans of North America e-commerce sites, which showed many models as sold out or selling fast, were on the mark. Growth in direct-to-consumer sales helped boost margins during the quarter. The company maintained its forecast for Ebitda margins, which exclude items such as taxes and depreciation, to grow 150 percentage points for the financial year.

Canada Goose’s US shares were down 10 per cent at 12.50pm in New York after initially rising in pre-market trading following the results.

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On a recent evening at the Beijing store, the madness from opening day had died down. Window shoppers filed past the mannequins as a cashier inside rung up US$600 jackets. One shopper, who identified herself as Mrs Hu, said she was surprised to see so many people decked out in Canada Goose, especially because it’s often not cold enough to warrant wearing the kind of coat they wear in Antarctica. She said any anti-Canada sentiment that may be out there won’t last.

“Canada diplomatic tensions are not an issue,” she said. “I mostly care about the product itself. The company is not to blame for the actions of the nation.”
 

Tam

Brigadier
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This one is interesting too. It shows the share of iOS in China increasing from March 2018 to March 2019, with no sign of an overall decline.

Statcounter isn't about sales but browser usage since it measures market share by counting the hits on certain websites, and those hits identify browser and platform. There is a bit of a difference here.
 

Icmer

Junior Member
Registered Member
Statcounter isn't about sales but browser usage since it measures market share by counting the hits on certain websites, and those hits identify browser and platform. There is a bit of a difference here.

I didn't say it was about sales. In fact, I specifically differentiated between sales and active user share.

The stats I linked prove the number of active iPhone users isn't decreasing.
 
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