International Power Ranking

Looking at the list again,I would say that Japan should be placed in the Emerging Superpower list as it seems to have all the stipulated criteria for superpower status,and could,as stated by Violet oboe,produce nuclear weapons in very short order (also aircraft carriers etc),only negatives for Japan would appear to be demographics (aging population),and shortage of natural resources.

FuManChu said:

The PLAN is not a blue-water navy. It may have vessels that could carry out blue-water operations, but that's it.

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Compared to the US or Japanese navies sure, but compared to most of the rest of Asia's fleets it is a BW force and has conducted round the world cruises.

Generally your list is rather arbitrary.

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of course it is, it provides a thumbnail sketch of power rankings not a doctoral thesis.

For example, why does a country have to have a population of 100 million+ to be a superpower?

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Population translates into so many other things- workers, engineers, consumers etc.

In the past the UK could be regarded as one and it had a much smaller population.

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Global populations were also smaller overall.

Alternatively why 100 million+ and not 200 million+?

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because only 3 nations who make the top 3 categories have a population that large.

As to a space programme, what is "credible" and why is it relevant? A lot of people would say space programmes are at best scientific (i.e. not super-power related) and at worse a big international penis-waving competition. When we get to the point where countries can successfully exploit space for real gain, it will be a sign of status. But not before.

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Because space programs breed technology, waves the flag, adds economic and political benefits, and finally when the next technological breakthriugh arrives and we boost for orbit, it behooves nations to already have a foot in the door.

Personally I don't think China or Russia are superpowers. Whether the US is a "hyperpower" or a "superpower", it is the only one. Everyone else are at best either potential superpowers or great powers.

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Do you not see the overall long term scale of difference between China/Russia and the other "Great Powers"?

Icortez,

Question I would like to ask in relation to the original post is I wasn't aware Brazil was a nuclear power (and some of the others),when did this happen?

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The items listed after each state are the items on the super power list the nation is missing.

Spain being added.

Japan is locked into the Great Power list, there is no chance of Japan getting a P5 seat.

Violet Oboe,

Indeed, zraver should not use the term ´nuke power´or ´nuclear force´regarding countries like Japan, Germany and Brazil.

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I don't, they are listed as lacking nuclear arsenals.

Obviously all three are capable of mastering the nuclear fuel cycle with Japan even developing a plutonium breeding capacity but Japan, Germany and Brazil have renounced their right for producing nuclear weapons (...though Brazil's legal situation appears not to be as clear as in the case of the two defeated axis powers of WW II). However from a purely technical point of view every state with enough HEU or weapons grade PU (~5 kg Pu, ~15 kg HEU) should be able to produce a crude nuclear device within a couple of months.

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If they do then my list will change, right now they haven't. It is also unlikely that they will under their current political climate.

I stand corrected,Sir
I think any list of this nature,compiled at this point in history can only ever be arbitrary,owing to the great changes the world is currently undergoing,nations that currently are great powers will probably not be in twenty or thirty years time.
I believe there will be three Superpowers,roughtly equal to one another in 30 yrs time,EU,USA,& China,thus raising the bar for any nations aspiring for Great Power status,in terms of population,economy etc.

Well my list was designed to give more flexibility in international comparisons. The current system with the US as the sole Superpower forces nations like China to be compared to nations like Spain. Well obviously this won't work- China has an intercontinental nuclear strike capability and 1.3 billion souls.

But if we elevate the US to Hyper-power and the give the super power capability to those nations that meet a stringent and arbitrary list, then we can more accurately compare nations because of just being 1 step apart (China as a Great Power under the old system vs Spain a middle power) now they are 2 steps apart and that is far more accurate.

Have been looking up Brazil,it certainly looks like a country with alot of future potential,however doesnt look like they have a great deal of US combat equipment,is there a political issue there re technology transfers etc ?
Looking at the economy,they are already worlds 10th largest economy,with plenty of growth potential,not sure about natural resources,I would say all in they could be considered a potential Superpower,any opinions

Brazil renounced its nuclear weapons program and came clean. Unless they want to violate the NPT and tank thier economy they will not meet the nuclear requirement.

The thing that puts Brazil head and shoulders above similar countries and the rest of Latin America is that they have almost totally eliminated dependence on foreign energy. With lots and lots of sugarcane ethanol and several hydroelectric dams they've got everything they need. And it's mostly clean too.

Brazil also has an aircraft carrier but its pretty old and it's airwing is mostly obssolete and without fighters.

Brazil as her people are painfully aware is indeed a country with great potential but there are encouraging signs that this time the country is living up to these great expectations.

Most Brazilians feel today that canceling the nuke program was a mistake and that if Brazil had tested her first weapon back in the early to mid 90's their country would be currently on par with India having a de facto accepted nuclear weapons capability and a prospective seat at the UNSC. Unfortunately the political leadership during this crucial years was weak and corrupt and the country suffered from economic chaos so this window of opportunity had effectively closed by the late 90's.

Interestingly the emergence of a ´brazilian Chavez´could change the rules of the game but the brazilian oligarchy is already chafing about Lula and would try everything to prevent an indigenous ´el supremo´. Regarding economic pressures Brazil is now in a far more relaxed position than 10 or 20 years ago since the foreign debt crisis is resolved and Brazil has effectively diversified her trade and investment partners. Today China is a very important economic and strategic partner and if the ´West´would dare to threaten Brazil with coercive measures Beijing would be glad to step in and take over their market share.

So expect Brazil to get more assertive but nothing like going nuclear (...though brazilian democracy could have produced some ´Chavez like´surprise in 5 or 10 years time!)

Let us not forget gentlemen; the influence that China now exerts on Brazil. Since 1984 a fundamental relationship was founded between the two and with increasing disparity between South and North America the Red Giant looks more and more appealing. China has the steel, heavy industry, railways and more importantly martial hardware, and Brazil has the necessary grains and livestock to feed the nation. It seems that the new second language of this land may be Mandarin.

Sino-Brazilian space cooperation dates back to 1988 and both countries are meanwhile operating jointly several CBERS remote sensing satellites (the latest model launched this year) enhancing Brazil's recon capabilities significantly.

Deepening the sino-brazilian alliance is very much in China's interest but the US is trying to slow any progress by whipping up anti-China ressentiment in Brazil's oligarch class. However the steady dynamics of mutual trade and investment is working in favor of China's interests...