IMHO takeway here is they're more sure about mk.1A, but much less so about mk.2 onwards.
For all chain delays, mk.1As now at least exist.
As far as i understand, second order is meant to be Uttam one(i.e. “mk.1B”）. If it wails - backup ELTA option won't go anywhere.
For India especially, the phrase "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" very much applies. Mk. 1A essentially tries to make the best of the "proven" Mk. 1 airframe, while Mk. 2 accepts more risk to deliver more capability. As the scope of planned Mk. 2 improvements increased (see attached image), alongside associated risk profile, space opened up for Mk. 1A. Given the many schedule slippages of Mk. 2 to date, it is almost certainly sensible to focus on what can actually be delivered, in the form of Mk. 1A. In hindsight, one opportunity that was missed in recent years was to opt for a significantly larger Mk. 1A buy in the first place, rather than this piecemeal structure. A larger block buy would've improved economies of scale and commercial incentives throughout the supply chain. Of course one major reason that did not happen is because IAF has (somewhat justifiably) been skeptical of the entire enterprise and has been reluctant to commit.
My primary thinking is in the engines, which is the primary pain point of the whole Indian combat aviation sector. At this moment the Indians are completely reliant on the US for Tejas, the French for Rafale and the Russians on SUs. The Kaveri is still on the drawing board with more dreams and dopamine hits from PowerPoints.
For better or worse (and it may well be worse), there appears to have been almost no interest or movement in the direction of Russian engines for LCA and other future aircraft projects. The circus has been conducted almost exclusively between India and western nations/entities, though Russian facilities have played some role in testing prior iterations of Kaveri. At the present moment, France/Safran appears to have the upper hand in terms of future engine
technology collaboration with India, offsetting reliance on USA/GE as direct supplier of F404/F414 engines.
If they have a change of engine supplier they will clearly need an engine that fit in the hole of the f404/f414. Rd-33 is longer and larger in diameter anyway... M88 would fit but they will not get license for m-88. Still it would fit and commonality with rafale could be a thing.
EJ200 is the most plausible "alternate engine" for LCA Mk. 2, having gone through critical design review as part of the engine selection process circa ~2010.
It could help to have a complete engine licensing and tooling, even for an older type like rb199 to have at least a solid base with a proven design to test upon with full tech transfer.
That would've been far too sensible. No, India requires the best of modern or even future technology and if domestic industry is unable to deliver and foreign vendors are unwilling to transfer technology for rupees found underneath the cushion, then India will have no alternative but to continue with wholesale imports indefinitely. That will teach them.
